[ROCKMAN]

h-man: Thanks...didn't realize that. Predicting production, especially the global rate, isn't as difficult given those dynamics aren't as volatile. Say 2 or 3 years out...not a big problem. Further out...big problem. But consider the US shale boom: it developed because of the price increase. If one isn't predicting a significant increase in prices today then it's easy to predict future NEW shale production: it ain't going to be much.

[Tanada]

Anyone have a handy list of the top ten world oil producers that is current?

Anyone but me notice that the glut seems to be winding down pretty fast and we might find ourselves back to the races by next spring?

[ROCKMAN]

P - Not what you asked but I think it's interesting. The country producing the most fossil fuel Btu's: as of 2016 the USA.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=26352

A variety of bean counters out there. This is supposed to be sourced from the EIA: the US is #2 behind Saudi.

https://financesonline.com/top-10-oil-p ... -dominion/

But given the top 3 (the KSA, USA and Russia) are all within about 10% of each other the ranking doesn't seem too important IMHO. For instance while the KSA produces more oil then the US we supply the world with more consumable fossil fuel products then any other country. No one in Europe or S. America burns KSA oil in their cars. But they burn a lot of motor fuel produced by US refineries.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'A')nyone have a handy list of the top ten world oil producers that is current?

Anyone but me notice that the glut seems to be winding down pretty fast and we might find ourselves back to the races by next spring?

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'A')nyone have a handy list of the top ten world oil producers that is current?

Anyone but me notice that the glut seems to be winding down pretty fast and we might find ourselves back to the races by next spring?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'A')nyone have a handy list of the top ten world oil producers that is current?

Anyone but me notice that the glut seems to be winding down pretty fast and we might find ourselves back to the races by next spring?

[ROCKMAN]

P - " In any case ROCKMAN's statements about USA refined fuels powering South America is rather beside the point. The USA is still a multiple million barrel a day importing country and that is highly likely to remain the case so long as world oil markets continue to function." And almost 5 million bbls per day of that imported oil is refined and then exported overseas. "Even if Fracking takes off like crazy between now and 2020 we have a mighty big gap between production and consumption in this country." You didn't ask about consumption or imports: you asked what countries were oil producers. And the US is...#2. Which, given our domestic consumption, is a rather important stat IMHO.

Just as we are the #1 exporter of refined products is very important since it takes a good bit of the sting out of our trade imbalance of petroleum. It also gives US consumers first call on 1.8 BILLION BBLS of refinery products per year if we're willing to outbid foreign buyers.

[tita]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'B')ut given the top 3 (the KSA, USA and Russia) are all within about 10% of each other the ranking doesn't seem too important IMHO. For instance while the KSA produces more oil then the US we supply the world with more consumable fossil fuel products then any other country. No one in Europe or S. America burns KSA oil in their cars. But they burn a lot of motor fuel produced by US refineries.

[vtsnowedin]

WTI hit $50.00 /barrel today. A commentator on Fox business said that part of the reason beyond OPEC production cuts was that the EIA had over estimated USA production by some 500,000 barrels a day.
The story in the link does not have his comments but it might come up later today.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017 ... -2004.html

[tita]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'W')TI hit $50.00 /barrel today. A commentator on Fox business said that part of the reason beyond OPEC production cuts was that the EIA had over estimated USA production by some 500,000 barrels a day.
The story in the link does not have his comments but it might come up later today.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017 ... -2004.html

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'W')TI hit $50.00 /barrel today. A commentator on Fox business said that part of the reason beyond OPEC production cuts was that the EIA had over estimated USA production by some 500,000 barrels a day.
The story in the link does not have his comments but it might come up later today.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017 ... -2004.html

[onlooker]

in response to what Vts is saying I think the situation is not so rosy as that. First off, one must wonder if consumers can bear higher oil prices but more important see think link for how the depletion rates are increasing in the top shale unconventional sites in the US
https://srsroccoreport.com/u-s-second-l ... ates-rise/
"While the Eagle Ford is suffering a significant monthly decline rate, it pales in comparison to what is taking place in the Permian Region.  The EIA forecasts that the Permian Region will experience a stunning 160,000 bd decline in October:"

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'A')nyone but me notice that the glut seems to be winding down pretty fast and we might find ourselves back to the races by next spring?

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'A')nyone but me notice that the glut seems to be winding down pretty fast and we might find ourselves back to the races by next spring?

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')the same kind of creeping price rise that we experienced in 2004-2006.

[kublikhan]

That graph has not been seasonally adjusted Tanada. It is common to increase supplies every year prior to the driving season. Then decrease those inventories during driving season throughout. Is is not mysterious why IEA shows this same pattern repeating in 2018. Inventories will spike up for that year's driving season just as it has for the prior years in that graph. So much of what you are pointing to as proof of the glut abating is just the normal seasonal purge of the pre driving season build up. One way to erase this as a factor is to look at the year end inventory levels. As you can see, 2017 ends up higher than 2016. And 2018, higher than 2017.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year)
2015 2016 2017 2018
2970 2967 2995 3066

[vtsnowedin]

Is there also a seasonal increase in diesel use as farmers harvest and transport the bulk grain crops and a buildup of heating oil stocks at least in the north east in preparation for the winter heating season.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')PEC won’t clear the global oil glut any time soon since any increase in price continues to bolster rival production from U.S. shale, according to the International Energy Agency.

“If they wish to achieve the reduction of oil stocks down to the five-year average, they’re going to have to dig in for the long haul. Rebalancing is a stubborn process. The resilience of the U.S. shale producers and the flexibility, the ability to bring on more oil at relatively low cost and short notice, means any signs of life -- as far as the price is concerned -- encourages more U.S. shale. The price is self-capped.”

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')the same kind of creeping price rise that we experienced in 2004-2006.

[ROCKMAN]

"By 2025 or so, with many mainstream makers in the fray, hopefully EV sales will be in the many million range." Millions...not tens of millions then? Let's make a. Completely absurd prediction: half the new vehicles sold in 2025 will be EV's (which will be powered by electricity produced by burning fossil fuels more then any other source) and the rest ICE's. So in 8 years there will be about 50 million new ICE's rolling down the road emitting GHG into the atmosphere. And 50 million EV's the majority of which will be powered by ff sourced electricity based on the current projrction of renewable energy growth. So where exactly is the good news? Yes, better then 100 million new ICE's. But still not good news by any measure for the sake of the climate.

And that's based upon an impossible projection.