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How long will the effects of Peak-Oil last?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Unread postby DefiledEngine » Tue 19 Jul 2005, 06:54:17

The word civilization does not mean dark age. A civilization can be in the "dark ages" (not technologically advaned). Can you construct and/or maintain a technologically advanced society/civilization without fossil fuels? That's what people are discussing here everyday.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Getting a little off topic here there's a paradox called Femi's Paradox that states if there's billions and billions of stars then surely there must be lots of intelligent aliens from outer space. So if that's the case then why haven't we recieved a signal from them? Maybe "The Olduvai Theory" is the answer to Femi's Paradox.


Indeed, several SETI researchers have proposed that exponential growth is ultimately self-destructive and that an intelligent ET species would either realize this and limit themselves from colonizing the galaxy, or they would die-off.
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Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Tue 19 Jul 2005, 07:05:45

"The word civilization does not mean dark age. A civilization can be in the "dark ages" (not technologically advaned). Can you construct and/or maintain a technologically advanced society/civilization without fossil fuels? That's what people are discussing here everyday."


"Dark Age" just means a time with no historical record, so yes you can have a civilisation, just no one will know about it.

I'd say no to your question.
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Unread postby Doly » Tue 19 Jul 2005, 07:22:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DefiledEngine', 'C')an you construct and/or maintain a technologically advanced society/civilization without fossil fuels?


I think so. There are a few alternative energies around that look fairly advanced.
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Unread postby Nike62 » Tue 19 Jul 2005, 19:16:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')Lets be positive and assume that we will find a super high tech solution to peak oil. Nuclear fussion? Matter-Antimatter warp drive propulsion? Whatever...that's not the point. History has shown that civilizations rise and fall. So it's a gurantee nuclear war will happen sometime in the future and once it does we'll all get pushed back to the dark ages.


Yes, you are right, but the point is different.

- basic objective: to live without problems all our life
- extended objective: to make our childs to live without problems all their lives
- optional objective: to make our grandchilds to live without problems all their lives

So, none of us is interested in fixing all the possible problems regarding all the future generations...
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Unread postby cube » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 00:44:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nike62', '.')............
So, none of us is interested in fixing all the possible problems regarding all the future generations...
Isn't it just slightly depressing to know that the ultimate fate of humanity is to never have another industrial revolution?
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Unread postby oiless » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 10:54:52

Actually steam engines are a poor analogy. One of the great advantages of steam engines is that you can run them on damn near anything, and because you can control the combustion enviroment much easier thanin an IC engine, they can be very non-polluting.
However, they cannot provide a growing economy in a sustainable world, anymore than anything else could, you can't grow biomass to fuel boilers any faster than it will grow, and there is a limit to how many viable places there are to install solar boilers.
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Unread postby cube » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 15:44:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oiless', 'A')ctually steam engines are a poor analogy. One of the great advantages of steam engines is that you can run them on damn near anything,
...........
That may be true. You can burn cow dung, wood, or even use heat from a nuclear fission reaction to run a steam engine. But coal is the only energy source with a high enough energy density and also simple enough that a primitive society can use to advance into industrialization.

Extracting resources is like picking fruit off a tree. You pick the low hanging fruit first because it's easy. After that you get a ladder and pick the rest of the more difficult to reach fruit. At this moment almost all of the "low hanging fruit" has already been picked. We don't have to worry right now b/c we have machines that can dig 1000 ft deep for coal or even 10,000 ft deep (offshore) for oil.

However a society starting off from scratch isn't going to have this benefit. Would the industrial revolution happen in Britain during the 1700's if they had to dig 1000 ft. deep to extract coal? I think not. 8)
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Unread postby BlisteredWhippet » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 18:06:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nike62', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')Lets be positive and assume that we will find a super high tech solution to peak oil. Nuclear fussion? Matter-Antimatter warp drive propulsion? Whatever...that's not the point. History has shown that civilizations rise and fall. So it's a gurantee nuclear war will happen sometime in the future and once it does we'll all get pushed back to the dark ages.


Yes, you are right, but the point is different.

- basic objective: to live without problems all our life
- extended objective: to make our childs to live without problems all their lives
- optional objective: to make our grandchilds to live without problems all their lives

So, none of us is interested in fixing all the possible problems regarding all the future generations...


Wrong. Some of us are. Most of us should be. For example, if we are stuck in our thinking at #1 on the list,

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')- basic objective: to live without problems all our life


We'll never get to number two. This is short-sightedness. There is always some rationale to make shortcuts undercutting objective #2 and #3. Especially if we're only thinking in terms of one lifetime, which is usually never the case, more like one hour, one day, or one week.

If we successfully acted in terms of objective #3,

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')- optional objective: to make our grandchilds to live without problems all their lives


The other two objectives would be taken care of automatically.

Case in point: world hunger due to exploitation and population growth, an obvious point. Too many people having too many children, basing their decisions in terms of their own self-interest. You can also make the case that they didn't know what they were doing (ignorance) and you could conclude that they were only interested in fulfilling their own selfish desires and interests. My hope is that they were just ignorant, since it would seem rational to expect that a woman would not want to knowingly have a child born into a world of poverty and extreme deprivation.

I'm sure someone else has heard about the Native American practice of decision-making where each action is judged on the effects on the seventh generation down the line? It may be more myth than reality, but the essential logic is sound.

I think revolutions in technological innovation will eventually be regarded as primitive and frivolous. Intellectual revolutions are the future. Insight and creativity will continue to work after the lights go out. I think there will be a die-off of old, outmoded ideas. This is already taking place through the standard cultural channels of shame, taboo, etc.

I find those mechanisms of society to be rather crude, though, and hope there is another way for it to get done. I also believe you can teach respect just like logic. Neither of which are taught to public school children, which is sad.
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Unread postby holmes » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 18:38:14

god help us all
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