[Graeme]

Global economy recovering; nowhere near depression: Raghuram Rajan

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')HENNAI: Global economy is in a recovery mode which is still weak, but the overall situation is "not anywhere" like the depression of 1930s, Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said today.

"I re-emphasise that the global economy is in recovery. It not a strong recovery by any means...recovery is weak but not anywhere that looks like depression (of 1930s)," he said when asked about his views on the world economy and its challenges.

Referring to his last week's speech, the Governor said predicting 'great depression' kind of situation by media was an unwarranted extrapolation of the content of the speech made at London Business School.

[Graeme]

Ignore the ‘Faint Whiff of Panic;’ Global Growth Is Accelerating

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou wouldn’t know it given the noise from China and Greece, but the world economy is picking up steam.

Morgan Stanley predicted on Thursday global expansion of almost 4 percent in the second half of this year, up from 2.9 percent in the first six months.
The firm says monetary stimulus is taking hold and will even be extended by 18 central banks this year, enough reason for optimism despite it also forecasting a protracted slowdown in China and 75 percent risk of Greece leaving the euro.

“The strength of domestic demand in developed economies will be the key engine of growth,” Chetan Ahya and Elga Bartsch, Morgan Stanley’s co-chief economists, told clients. “We expect the global economy to continue on the path of gradual recovery.”

[Graeme]

Distraction of Greece aside, is all well with the world economy?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he race is on between the US and British central banks to be the first major economy to raise interest rates after a long period of unprecedented monetary generosity.

It won't happen immediately but both Janet Yellen, who chairs the US Federal Reserve, and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney signalled in the past week that higher rates are close.

Not everything in the world economy, however, is as sanguine as the US and British economies would appear to be.

[Graeme]

IMF's Lagarde: World economy is recovering but fragile; Europe improving, China resilient

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')nternational Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde says the world economy is recovering but fragile and "faces some downside risks."

In an online press conference Wednesday, Lagarde described the United States "a strong performer" and China "resilient" despite a recent drop in Chinese stock prices.

She also expressed optimism for the 19 countries that use the euro. The IMF expects the eurozone economy to grow 1.5 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2016; it expanded just 0.8 percent in 2014.

"The euro area is beginning to turn the corner ... We have a more upbeat forecast than we have in a long time," she said.

Lagarde called again for Greece's creditors to reduce its debt burden. She said Greece needs to enact reforms that will make its economy more efficient and expressed confidence the IMF can work with Greece's left-wing government, which has criticized IMF policies.

"There are lots of things that you say (in politics)," she said. "What matters at the end of the day is what you do."

Lagarde noted that a drop in worldwide commodity prices is likely to hurt emerging market economies. And the global economy could face fallout if the Federal Reserve raises short-term U.S. interest rates, which it has kept near zero since late 2008. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said a rate increase is likely this year. Lagarde has urged the Fed to delay the rate hike until 2016, citing the fragility of the global economic recovery.

[ROCKMAN]

So China is going to give the Philippines a little "kiss" to get them to not be obstructionists. Called "greasing the skids" and often used when dealing with the locals:

Reuters - China's foreign minister on Tuesday said he supported the idea of joint energy ventures with the Philippines in the disputed South China Sea, warning that unilateral action could cause problems and damage both sides. Wang Yi, on a two-day visit to Manila, made the remarks after President Rodrigo Duterte on Monday said a partner had been found to develop oil fields and exploration and exploitation would restart this year.

Duterte did not identify the partner. The energy ministry on July 12 said drilling at the Reed Bank, suspended in 2014, might resume before year-end, and the government was preparing to offer new blocks to investors in bidding in December. "In waters where there are overlapping maritime rights and interests, if one party goes for unilateral development, and the other party takes the same action, that might complicate the situation at sea," Wang told a news conference."

More at

http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/1 ... sputed_Sea

[ralfy]

Some interesting history here, including deals made involving Vietnam and U.S. companies:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands_dispute

[onlooker]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-2 ... recessions
Economically desperate Americans

[Cog]

Desperate? Hardly. Americans aren't stashing their pennies in savings accounts and CD's, they are investing in the stock market at record pace. Once again Zerohedge posts a nothing-burger of doom.

https://www.fool.com/retirement/2017/02 ... 401ks.aspx

The average American is working harder than ever, and thanks to increasing wages, Americans are contributing more money to their 401(k) plans than since the Great Recession. According to Fidelity Investments, the average worker contributed 8.4% of his or her income to a 401(k) in the fourth quarter. Are your contributions keeping pace?

Contribution rates to defined contribution plans such as 401(k)s depend a great deal on the worker's age and income, but overall, the average American worker is setting aside 8.4% of his or her income in these accounts, which is up from an average employee contribution rate of 8.1% in the first quarter of 2015

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'D')esperate? Hardly. Americans aren't stashing their pennies in savings accounts and CD's, they are investing in the stock market at record pace.[/b]

[onlooker]

Well, truly the entire spectrum right here. Cog optimistic, I am doomerish and Ibon wary. For what it's worth, many portfolios seem intermixed with hedge funds and derivatives of some kind, all of which seem risky to put it mildly. I suggest Ibon you look into the current very risky nature of the stock market before investing in it. Just my two cents.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'W')ell, truly the entire spectrum right here. Cog optimistic, I am doomerish and Ibon wary. For what it's worth, many portfolios seem intermixed with hedge funds and derivatives of some kind, all of which seem risky to put it mildly. I suggest Ibon you look into the current very risky nature of the stock market before investing in it. Just my two cents.

[onlooker]

You make some good points and seem to be savvy investor OS, however most are probably not. And remember that I think we can all agree that in general economic fundamentals have deteriorated over time even while volatility and speculation has increased in the stock market. And this is even discounting the abundance of more pessimistic analysis of underlying trends. Finally all investors can be potentially one poor investment away from total ruin. So I am speaking not as a hardcore doomer but as simply someone advising caution

[onlooker]

Well back to a more realistic assessment of what is coming and why anybody who is still in the Stock Market is really foolish.
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/t ... r_07272017
The Elites Are Jumping Ship As The Financial Collapse Draws Near

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'W')ell back to a more realistic assessment of what is coming and why anybody who is still in the Stock Market is really foolish.
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/t ... r_07272017
The Elites Are Jumping Ship As The Financial Collapse Draws Near

[onlooker]

This is because I happen to believe the more pessimistic outlooks but even if someone doesn't a downward trajectory seems reasonably certain. But some can cash in in light of this