[Permanently_Baffled]

I am just curious to what sort of price levels housing will fall to in the coming years. Lets assume there is the PO recession/depression route rather than mad max or nuclear war (in which case it doesn't matter ).

What sort of negative equity are we looking at?

For ease of numbers let forecast the price on a £200,000 house in the South of England. Give me forecast prices for 2010 , 2015 and 2020.

Or for Americans a price forecast on a $800,000 dollar home in San diego in 2010 , 2015 and 2020. (see if we can scare Jato a little )

Just interested to know how shagged i am!

PB

[linlithgowoil]

unemployment is going to have to start climbing a lot before house prices fall significantly.

who knows when that will happen? probably soon though.

i predict the following:- another few years of house price stagnation/slight falls, followed by a massive plummet around 2010 as the economy implodes and unemployment rises above 20%.

[bruin]

I have no idea about London, but that $800,000 home in San Diego has a lot of things going for it after PO. The downside to San Diego there is not mass transit to speak of. There is bus service and a ferry service to Coronada but nothing that will get every body to work. But that's pretty much the case for the USA in general. However, the weather is so mild, that after PO, the cost of living will be much less then many other areas in the USA. Given that, the demand for housing in San Diego will have a lot of upward pressure after PO.

[CrudeAwakening]

I think a lot depends on how many new ingenious ways they find to persuade people to take on unaffordable debt. But sooner or later there will be a large scale inability to repay, and prices will come down. People tend to assume their wages will increase or at least remain constant, they could be in for a surprise..

[MicroHydro]

After the dieoff, the empty McMansions will make good stables.

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')ee if we can scare Jato a little

[jmacdaddio]

My parents were able to buy their dream house in an upscale NJ town 2 years ago. Most normal parents trade down when the nest empties but not my parents - they purchased a home comparable in size to a McMansion but it was built in the 1970s and the construction is much sturdier than any of the crap built recently. They rolled the proceeds of the sale of the house where I grew up into the new home, and they only have a small mortgage to pay (small being relative) considering that both are still working.

The house has already appreciated close to 35% in 2 years. If you spit 10 feet in any direction in their neighborhood you'll see a house for sale. Lots of folks are cashing in now, or trying to make a move before the party ends. Q4 2005 will be interesting.

[pea-jay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bruin', 'I') have no idea about London, but that $800,000 home in San Diego has a lot of things going for it after PO. The downside to San Diego there is not mass transit to speak of. There is bus service and a ferry service to Coronada but nothing that will get every body to work. But that's pretty much the case for the USA in general. However, the weather is so mild, that after PO, the cost of living will be much less then many other areas in the USA. Given that, the demand for housing in San Diego will have a lot of upward pressure after PO.