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THE EIA Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 07 Jun 2017, 15:11:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The consumer doesn't want to or can't pay for +~$50/barrel for oil, but that price point doesn't support new projects or expensive extensions to existing difficult plays like tar sands or GOM


$50 oil; that couldn't have anything to do with the entire industry going broke could it? But let's not let a few details like reality get in the way! click to enlarge
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 07 Jun 2017, 17:35:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')ell, we got the usual insults, distractions and BS compliments from the usual coterie of trolls, thugs, schoolyard bullies, and lightweight narcissistic nerds . . . but nothing of consequence. Cut and run guys?

Have data?

Got a mirror? Got Google?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 07 Jun 2017, 18:13:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '2')2 billion barrels and we use 20 million barrels a day!!! Works out to just three years and change. 2014 ought to be a real interesting year any way you look at it.


Indeed. And a beautiful example of why R/P ratios aren't worth much, when doing long term forecasting. In this case just a few years...a few years ago....
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 07 Jun 2017, 18:15:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The consumer doesn't want to or can't pay for +~$50/barrel for oil, but that price point doesn't support new projects or expensive extensions to existing difficult plays like tar sands or GOM


$50 oil; that couldn't have anything to do with the entire industry going broke could it? But let's not let a few details like reality get in the way! click to enlarge

thanks for the correction: +~$50/barrel oil doesn't support oil companies. period.


You mean, except for all the ones it has...for years now?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 07 Jun 2017, 18:19:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '2')2 billion barrels and we use 20 million barrels a day!!! Works out to just three years and change. 2014 ought to be a real interesting year any way you look at it.


In 1981, when we were consuming about the same amount of crude as we do today, US reserves were about 29 billion. About 4 years later after we used them all up, we arrived in 1985....and GOSH NAB IT!! We still had 28 billion in reserves. WHAT!! And it turns out...1985 wasn't an all bad year!

OJ went to the Hall of Fame (hah!), MOVE got wiped out in Philly, Rt66 ceased being an official highway, Ramirez got taken off the streets, not all bad, eh?

And so here we are, another quarter century later...and we have 20 billion in reserves? Imagine that! How many new Saudi Arabia's have we discovered since 1985? Must be at least a couple, eh? :lol:


How is it that this poster, who obviously knows something about the sleight of hand tricks of doomers, got himself banned for..KNOWING something? That something mostly being that peakers aren't very good at accounting for all the reasons why the prior peaks, or claimed peaks along the way, went bad, and want nothing to do with correcting the logic fallacies they built in their arguments?

This same thing happened to Mr. Reserve who...as it turned out....was discussing the power of the shales before they were even visible to us regular folk. Was this a regular thing back "in the day", everyone who wasn't on the pstarr herdthink bandwagon got the boot?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 07 Jun 2017, 21:22:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')Don't forget vt's 7-year-old secret.

What about today and collapsing world oil reserves?
As I posted that opinion here it was never a secret. I have learned a thing or two over the last seven years which shows I still have a learning curve albeit a bit on the shallow as curves go. Unfortunately Pstarr your curve appears to be a flat line or even a bit concave.
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 07 Jun 2017, 21:26:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')What about collapsing reserves?


Reserves can collapse all they'd like. They move into the resource category at that point. And sit there and wait until the consumer does what the consumer does, and then they become reserves once again. Wiki up some knowledge already, none of this is hard even for buzzed spectators of forest clear cutting events.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 07 Jun 2017, 21:29:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')Don't forget vt's 7-year-old secret.



It wasn't a secret. And he appears to have learned something along the way. When might you?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 08 Jun 2017, 11:31:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')till nothing from the interns re collapsing world oil reserves?


Not being sure you even know what reserves are (or anything else related to the upstream portion of the oil and gas industry), your statement doesn't make any sense. Come on down off whatever you're on, and we can discuss all these things you don't know. And if it is too complex, find a relative who graduated elementary school, and we can explain things to them, and they can then put it in a simpler form you might be comfortable with.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 08 Jun 2017, 21:51:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '2')5,000 posts. Let's say each of his posts averages about 100 words, or roughly a paragraph. A novel is about 75,000 words, so he's posted 30 novels worth of material to these threads over the years.

I find myself wondering if 15 years from now people will still be predicting imminent doom on this forum. It's been going a while, so why not?


Why not address the content of the weekly report? It's listed here:

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/

but does not show up. A copy is found here, though:

http://fuelmarketernews.com/eia-oil-com ... l-average/
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 09 Jun 2017, 10:37:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ave data?


The EIA gets its numbers from the USGS, and the USGS quotes "technically" extractable reserves. "Technically" extractable reserves have absolutely nothing to do how muchwill be extracted: that depends on the price.

As we have been saying since 2014, when the price of oil began going down, that the price of oil is going down, and will continue to go down. That has nothing to do with how many barrels can be found in the ground, but how much energy compared to what can be extracted from it, it takes to produce it:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

So as it now stands the amount of oil that is in the ground, that will stay in the ground has gone up. Get out the champagne!
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 09 Jun 2017, 12:24:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he EIA gets its numbers from the USGS, and the USGS quotes "technically" extractable reserves. "Technically" extractable reserves have absolutely nothing to do how muchwill be extracted: that depends on the price.


Its uninformed comments such as this that substantiate the viewpoint that the whole ETP idea is complete nonsense. If you don’t even understand Reserves or where the EIA gets its data how the hell can you ground truth the ridiculous projections you make?

The EIA numbers on Reserves are not from the USGS….wherever you got that idiotic idea from leaves me at a loss. This is what the EIA says about their recoverable reserves estimates:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) starts with the data filed on Form EIA-23L, Annual Report of Domestic Oil and Gas Reserves, which was submitted by 450 of 467 sampled operators of U.S. oil and natural gas fields. EIA then estimates proved reserves for the U.S., states, and state subdivisions.


https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s we have been saying since 2014, when the price of oil began going down, that the price of oil is going down, and will continue to go down. That has nothing to do with how many barrels can be found in the ground, but how much energy compared to what can be extracted from it, it takes to produce it: 


Well first off the price of oil went down to just below $30, then it went back up to over $50 and now it is back down to $46. All of that movement is explainable by production, the response of US producers to higher prices and the view by traders as to how much oil is going to be out there due to political issues surrounding OPEC, Russia and the US with respect to production and China with respect to consumption. As has been pointed out here numerous times the world was able to handle $100 +/bbl for the period from January 2011 through to the first quarter of 2014. Throughout that period global GDP and global oil consumption continued to increase….neither decreased which is what would have happened if demand for oil was on the decline (i.e. was unaffordable as you claim). Sales of large SUV’s have been steadily increasing in the US over the past several years as well, suggesting the average North American has no problem affording gasoline. But you and your followers seem to love to ignore the actual data, preferring to live in Bizzaro World where economies of the world never recovered from 2009, refineries are all losing money, oil companies are all bankrupt and all of the countries in the world have collapsing economies.

I suggest before you bother to post here on oil and gas reserves again you do a bit of basic reading so you actually understand the terminology, the sources and use of data. Your ignorance is appalling when taken in the light of your vehement poselytization on behave of the ETP model.
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