by Outcast_Searcher » Wed 24 May 2017, 15:28:05
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'W')ould you spend 20% of your total reserves to arms and guns when it is shrinking so fast that you will be penniless in 5 years?
Nobody with the right mind would do that
The Saudis know something that we don't or someone or some country promised something behind the doors?
Does anyone here think oil price will ever be above $100/brl which is what Saudis need to balance the budget?
I don't think so.
So what is going on here?
I do. Maybe not for long periods of time, but at least now and then. The volatility of oil prices over time isn't going away (at least not for several decades), since supply and demand isn't going away.
Global demand for oil continues to grow as third world growth continues apace. That doesn't appear at ALL likely to end any time soon.
Green energy will grow in the first world. But it is starting from a tiny base, and it will take TIME. Math is something the greens seem to insist on a very one-sided (and unrealistic) application when they claim that, for example, EV's will be completely dominant within a decade.
Also, the KSA is working to diversify its economy and move toward green tech itself. So it's a horse race, not an intractable situation.
Will it be easy for them? NO, IMO.
Will they be successful in the transition, given the problems and human nature? I don't know. But the spikes in oil prices will help buy them time -- if they're not stupid and during the spikes decide all is well re long term oil revenues and stop moving away from total dependence on oil revenues.
....
Could I be wrong? Sure. Easily. But that's how I see the big picture. And no, I'm not dumb enough to try to make specific predictions by year -- anyone looking at the history of many volatile commodity charts, or volatile market charts in general should be able to see why such predictions are futile.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.