[vtsnowedin]

Pstarr's analysis stops a little short. First minor quibble is that the average over the road truck has five axles not six. The six axle ones are fuel tankers and haulers of other heavy material , from milk to cement and are often registered or permitted up to 100,000 lbs, gross weight.
But let's look at P's figures as far as they go without inspecting or testing his efficiency figure as they are at least plausible.
So P is going to replace 115 gallons of diesel per day with a battery containing 1800 KWHs of electricity? Lets say we can buy the diesel for $2.50 a gallon. That's $287.50 a day which is not cheap if it is coming out of your own pocket. But what does it cost to charge the battery pack. No figures given on the efficiency of charging units but we can presume it is not 100% and it certainly is not free if bought in that large a chunk. So let's guesstimate that commercial electricity through a high speed overnight charger costs a net of $0.20/KWH after efficiency losses are factored in.
1800 X 0.20= $360.00 per day.
Maybe when diesel gets to $10.00 a gallon companies will buy fleets of electric heavy trucks but not now.

[donstewart]

@Rockman
This will expand on my previous note relative to EROEI. If we are looking at the thermodynamic benefits of oil, then we really need to look at the total picture, from reservoir to turning wheel and through the economy. The ETP model attempts to do that.

One of the sub-metrics is the EROEI at the well-head. It is possible for the well-head EROEI to go up, while the total thermodynamic benefits are going down. Let me give you an example (while admitting that I am certainly not a petroleum or refinery professional.)

The first exhibit is from a post at Alice Friedemann’s site:
http://energyskeptic.com/2016/difficult-oil/

The basic notion here is that as the product presented at the refinery diverges from what we have classically considered as ‘oil’, then things get more difficult and the solution generally involves additional processing steps which require both money and energy.

The second exhibit is here:
http://www.aogr.com/web-exclusives/excl ... l-refining

See figure 1. As a rule, the Vacuum Gas Oil (VGO) declines as we move from the light-tight oils on the left to the heavier oils on the right. (Click to enlarge). It’s my understanding that the VGO is cracked to produce both gasoline and diesel.

In short, it seems that the light-tight oils tend to produce more naphtha and less diesel, kerosene, and gasoline. Since naphtha is not a transportation fuel, it sells for considerably less. So processing the light-tight oil is more expensive and give a less energy dense output at increased cost and reduced revenue. If my understanding here is correct, then it corroborates Mr. Hill’s charts which show declining yields in the refineries as the percentage light-tight oil increases.

So while wellhead EROEIs might conceivably be going up as fewer of the less productive wells are drilled, the total thermodynamic benefits afforded by the products presented at the refinery could still be going down. Whether light tight oil is worth producing at all would depend on a study of the total thermodynamic benefits from reservoir through processing through use in an internal combustion engine and then through the economy. I have never seen such a study restricted to light-tight oil. (And Eagle Ford is not like Permian which is not like Russian or Argentinian). However, it seems unlikely that light-tight oil is as profitable (both economically and from a thermodynamic standpoint) as traditional crude oil.

Again, I’m not an expert….Don Stewart

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 't')he EVs will have to be marketed to a world where most infrastructure is lacking and ave. daily income is less than $10 a day.

[ralfy]

Basic infrastructure is lacking worldwide. In order to make electric trucks available, the global economy has to industrialize readily. That will require at least one more earth.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'B')asic infrastructure is lacking worldwide. In order to make electric trucks available, the global economy has to industrialize readily. That will require at least one more earth.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'S')o P is going to replace 115 gallons of diesel per day with a battery containing 1800 KWHs of electricity? Lets say we can buy the diesel for $2.50 a gallon. That's $287.50 a day which is not cheap if it is coming out of your own pocket. But what does it cost to charge the battery pack. No figures given on the efficiency of charging units but we can presume it is not 100% and it certainly is not free if bought in that large a chunk. So let's guesstimate that commercial electricity through a high speed overnight charger costs a net of $0.20/KWH after efficiency losses are factored in.
1800 X 0.20= $360.00 per day.
Maybe when diesel gets to $10.00 a gallon companies will buy fleets of electric heavy trucks but not now.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'S')o P is going to replace 115 gallons of diesel per day with a battery containing 1800 KWHs of electricity? Lets say we can buy the diesel for $2.50 a gallon. That's $287.50 a day which is not cheap if it is coming out of your own pocket. But what does it cost to charge the battery pack. No figures given on the efficiency of charging units but we can presume it is not 100% and it certainly is not free if bought in that large a chunk. So let's guesstimate that commercial electricity through a high speed overnight charger costs a net of $0.20/KWH after efficiency losses are factored in.
1800 X 0.20= $360.00 per day.
Maybe when diesel gets to $10.00 a gallon companies will buy fleets of electric heavy trucks but not now.

[vtsnowedin]

Imagine the day they change the HOV (high occupancy vehicle) lanes into EVO Electric vehicle only lanes?

[ROCKMAN]

vt - They already do...at least in CA:

https://www.google.com/search?sclient=t ... 3rxB1-54W0

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'v')t - They already do...at least in CA:

https://www.google.com/search?sclient=t ... 3rxB1-54W0

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'I')magine the day they change the HOV (high occupancy vehicle) lanes into EVO Electric vehicle only lanes?

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'B')asic infrastructure is lacking worldwide. In order to make electric trucks available, the global economy has to industrialize readily. That will require at least one more earth.

[onlooker]

Precisely, Peripato, the arguments of the naysayers and optimists seem at best vacuous. For they focus on the present without seeing the underlying trends. It is like seeing a person and noticing they seem healthy without gathering data about their in depth medical history and lifestyle patterns

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') Well we don't have any more earths so that option is out. But what says we need to "industrialize readily"? More likely because it is the only realistic option we will modernize with difficulty and innovation.

[Revi]

Part of Trump's new budget is selling half of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. He will be leaving us with much less than we need to get through any hard times, and the world will gladly buy it. In my humble opinion...

[ROCKMAN]

Revi - Just a bit of clarity as I just posted elsewhere: President Trump might like to see SPR oil sold. But other then during an emergency (and even the the LAW requires it be eventually replaced) the POTUS has no authority, even by presidential order, to liquidate even 1 bbl of the SPR. Only Congress can pass a law to change the rules. The original SPR law was written very specifically to prevent such manipulation by the POTUS.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'B')asic infrastructure is lacking worldwide.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'P')art of Trump's new budget is selling half of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. He will be leaving us with much less than we need to get through any hard times, and the world will gladly buy it. In my humble opinion...

[ROCKMAN]

Here's another counterpoint to the theme that the ENTIRE petroleum industry is on the verge of going down the toilet. It follows the point made many times: perhaps the largest petroleum wealth transfer in history is underway. And with it SOME companies are acquiring assets cheaper then they've been able to for at least a decade. Assets that could be worth much more in the future. This story deals with a similar dynamic involving the infrastructure. From:

http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/1 ... pire_Build

Billionaire Ratcliffe Hunts Oil to Repeat Chemicals Empire Build

"Billionaire Jim Ratcliffe is seeking to replicate in oil what he did two decades ago to make Ineos AG into one of the world’s five biggest chemicals producers. The deal to buy assets from Dong Energy A/S for more than $1 billion follows the purchase of a pipeline system from BP Plc that carries crude used to price more than half the world’s oil. The closely held company plans more acquisitions, primarily in the North Sea, Tom Crotty, a director at Ineos, said in an interview on Wednesday."

And how did he make $BILLIONS before?

"The thing that makes us confident is experience, which is very similar to what we had in petrochemicals,” Crotty said. “Twenty years ago people would’ve asked why we are buying these unloved, unwanted chemical assets that aren’t making much money for the likes of BP. The answer was we think we can make them profitable, and we have.”

But maybe he's just another fool that made $BILLIONS by nothing but luck. LOL.

[donstewart]

'acquisitions, primarily in the North Sea'

I wonder if that intention has anything to do with the Tories just released platform...Don Stewart

Other industries, like the oil and gas sector, are transforming. The North Sea has provided more than £300 billion in tax revenue to the UK economy and supports thousands of highly-skilled jobs across Britain. We will ensure that the sector continues to play a critical role in our economy and domestic energy supply, supporting further investment in the UK’s natural resources. We will continue to support the industry and build on the unprecedented support already provided to the oil and gas sector. While there are very significant reserves still in the North Sea, it is expected to be the first major oil and gas basin in the world to decommission fully, and we will take advantage of that to support the development of a world-leading decommissioning industry. We will work with the industry to create a multi-use yard and the UK’s first ultra-deep water port to support this industry.