[onlooker]

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2017/05/05/w ... il-prices/
Great presentation by Gail covering different facets of the Economy including Oil
I summarize with some key points offered by this presentation:
-Both Consumers and Producers important
-Too low or too high oil price is a problem
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') should note that not all economists have missed the fact that the pricing situation changes, as limits are reached. Aude Illig and Ian Schindler have recently published a paper that concludes, “We find that price feedback cycles which lead to increased production during the growth phase of oil extraction go into reverse in the contraction phase of oil extraction, speeding decline.

[Plantagenet]

Gail is claiming current oil prices are too low for producers---and she may be right.

But this is a self-correcting problem.

If oil prices are too low for producers then they will reduce or even stop production. IF not, then they will continue producing.

Problem solved.

Its the same for consumers when oil prices get too high. People reduce their consumption of oil or even stop consuming oil entirely when prices get very high.

Obviously this creates temporary problems for consumers when prices are too high and for producers when prices are too low---but in the long run this creates a fluid, dynamic market that matches product to consumer at price both agree upon, albeit with much grumbling and kvetching.



Cheers!

[onlooker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '-')Our Economy has no option but to grow if it shrinks it collapses

[Cog]

The idea that low price of oil is some sort of problem to consumers strikes right to the heart of why the ETP model is hopelessly flawed. As if we need yet another ETP thread when we have three active ones.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')this ... presentation.... rightly sees PO as a economic/energetic dynamic which will reinforce itself in a downward trend.

[BahamasEd]

But what's a "low oil price"?

I would say that the current price of $40 to $55 is too high for the current consumers. So the price may be too high.

And the current prices may also be too low for the current producers, so the oil price may be too low.

All at the same time.

And I can't think of anyway to fix it, as the current producers can't make cheaper oil and the current consumers can't spend more on oil products.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'h')ttps://ourfiniteworld.com/2017/05/05/why-we-should-be-concerned-about-low-oil-prices/
Great presentation by Gail covering different facets of the Economy including Oil
I summarize with some key points offered by this presentation:
-Both Consumers and Producers important
-Too low or too high oil price is a problem

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BahamasEd', 'B')ut what's a "low oil price"?

I would say that the current price of $40 to $55 is too high for the current consumers. So the price may be too high.

[Observerbrb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'T')he idea that low price of oil is some sort of problem to consumers strikes right to the heart of why the ETP model is hopelessly flawed. As if we need yet another ETP thread when we have three active ones.

[marmico]

[marmico]

If the economy is like a circus, then Tverberg is the head clown of pop economics.

[Cog]

I wonder if professional doomers, the ones who get paid to predict doom, ever sit back after their doomer predictions come to naught, think about what a waste their life has been. Or do they chuckle about the money they have raked in and proceed on to the next doom prediction as if nothing ever occurred.

For the non-professional doomers, like we have here, a defective memory of past predictions is a very handy resource to have.

[onlooker]

I think you guys are parsing doom and realism as the same thing. They are not. I, myself have never uttered specific dates for specific events taking place. I, can ask the same thing about you more optimistic types, why are you here? Sometimes, it seems just to naysay what us more doomerish types contend. I can not speak for others but I am here to flesh out the details of our species trajectory. I find it a intellectually stimulating exercise. None of us can be 100% certain that what we believe will happen will happen. We can at least agree about that

[Tanada]

Specific dates are kind of irrelevant to the whole idea of doom. Does it make a difference if human extinction takes place within a hundred years instead of say 2 million years? It is still extinction either way, but on a short time horizon it effects you and your extended family and descendants if any in a way that your mind can grasp.

I read an interesting article by Robert Heinlein about his ability to predict the future, reviewing his expectations from the 1950's in the 1980's. Basically of his 20-30 predictions a few had been proven flat wrong, but the majority if he were selling them would have been a claim of 'just wait and see, we will get there eventually'.

Anyone can predict anything if you keep the event timing vague. For technotopians we could some day invent time machines and come back to prevent our mistakes in the 20th century. For the true doomers Human Extinction will happen some day, if you look far enough in the future. Heck there are species alive today that are indistinguishable from the same species living up too 100 MILLION years ago, like Horseshoe Crabs and Coelacanth fish. However even they will be extinct when the sun runs out of hydrogen a few billion years from now.

Moderates for the most part are more along the lines of tomorrow will resemble today. The challenges may change but the process will remain pretty similar as people tomorrow deal with the difficulties of tomorrow. Even if they meet a really novel problem most of history is about people meeting problems and muddling on through until they either surpass the problem or die.

[onlooker]

To be fair you really need to accept the fact that better decisions are made when not everyone agrees.--- I agree with the general tenor of your comment Squil, ideas should be challenged. However, when someone labels you something lets say Doomer, they are NOT honestly challenging your ideas but simply painting all your views under a nomenclature which reflexively they object too. They are fooling themselves if they believe they are truly being objective. We can have disagreements but ideology should not trump objective analysis. It is what any search for valid answers endeavors to do.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'I'), myself have never uttered specific dates for specific events taking place.