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End of Peakoil.com website

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

How will peakoil.com end?

1. Peak oil becomes obvious to all
10
No votes
2. Grid crash takes down server/Internet
8
No votes
3. Economic collapse takes down server/Internet
17
No votes
4. Totalitarian government bans discussions of peak oil, etc.
10
No votes
5. Peak oil is real, but so gradual most become bored with it
25
No votes
6. Amazing new technology means oil is plentiful indefinitely
0
0%
7. Amazing new technology means energy is plentiful indefinitely
3
No votes
8. The Rapture/End of the World from something completely different.
1
No votes
 
Total votes : 74

Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 01 May 2017, 23:07:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Squilliam', 'I')t's a completely different metric once you get to the point whereby the cars last for a very long time, and the main replacement part is the battery.


Cars already last for a very long time. One of my Toyota Landcruisers is 38 years old and still going strong. Considering that EVs typically cost more then ICE cars, its not at all clear that EVs last all that much longer than ICE cars.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Squilliam', ' ')it doesn't matter if it costs another $15,000 for the thing to drive itself because you make it up by driving it a lot.


Of course it matters how much it costs. Cost is always a factor in any decision.

An individual or a family isn't going to drive an EV car anymore than an ICE car, so the extra cost is a big deal.

Perhaps you are imagining a science fiction future where no one owns a car at all, and we all summon robots driving EV cabs on our iPhone aps when we want to go somewhere?

Image
Did you request a robot-EV-cab?

cheers!
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Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 01 May 2017, 23:23:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Squilliam', '
')
What I mean is the wider metropolitan area. Essentially the places where most people live, and most people have cars. It's a completely different metric once you get to the point whereby the cars last for a very long time, and the main replacement part is the battery. In this instance it doesn't matter if it costs another $15,000 for the thing to drive itself because you make it up by driving it a lot. We don't need to replace every single ICE vehicle with electric cars. Even a couple of % penetration would significantly reduce the total vehicle miles traveled due to the economics.


Most people worldwide barely have access to basic needs, let along passenger vehicles (ICE vehicles or otherwise).
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Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby MD » Tue 02 May 2017, 02:11:17

squirrel!
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby Revi » Tue 02 May 2017, 09:42:22

We are at the beginning of the 21st century. One hundred years ago we were just in the beginning of the automobile age. Most people got around on trains and walked. I have lived in places where people walked around and got around on busses and it worked. In one hundred years what do you think the chances are that we will be driving around in individual rolling steel boxes powered by petroleum? As for the peak oil website, I can't see it being around in 100 years either. For now, I guess I'll keep posting my observations here.
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Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 02 May 2017, 10:13:44

I voted Economic collapse takes down server/Internet. PO,will be gradual until its not
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 02 May 2017, 10:46:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')e are at the beginning of the 21st century. One hundred years ago we were just in the beginning of the automobile age. Most people got around on trains and walked. I have lived in places where people walked around and got around on busses and it worked. In one hundred years what do you think the chances are that we will be driving around in individual rolling steel boxes powered by petroleum? As for the peak oil website, I can't see it being around in 100 years either. For now, I guess I'll keep posting my observations here.


It is one of those either/or decision points. If we hold onto industrial civilization then personal vehicles will still be prevalent because they are something people really like to have. If our civilization falls apart you will be walking a lot and the wealthy will be using horse drawn vehicles just like they were in 1817.
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Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 02 May 2017, 11:22:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Squilliam', '
')Why not? The private car is probably the biggest waste of space/drain on resources there possibly is. By the time you add up all of the direct and indirect costs it really is staggering. Run the numbers, putting a car in a garage means you're often paying more for storage than the actual car if you add up the cost of land and the building it is in. Then you have to consider the parking spaces (2 per car in America), and the economic equation really drops through the floor. That's before even considering the cost of the actual car, service or fueling it.

It makes a hell of a lot of economic sense to run $50-100,000 eclectic cars as a service rather than something you own because the costs of owning a car go far beyond the purchase price or even direct costs. I would say the private car is probably the best example of collective lunacy in modern society. We don't even need that many eclectic cars to replace ICE cars because most ICE cars are idling most of the time, and the ones that aren't are often the best candidates to replace with eclectic.


Private cars, whether ICE or EV, also require garages. In addition, the latter requires better roads and inclines that are not that steep. Finally, both require extensive amounts of material resources besides oil. This does not include the grids, roads, and other facilities needed to support such transport. Most places worldwide lack such.

$50k to $100k is too high given a world where most earn only around $3 or so daily. Try a type of transport where you can only charge a few cents per km, and which can handle heavy cargo and rough roads across thousands of km with fewer facilities such as charging areas available.

Finally, ICE cars may be idle in some developed countries, but globally there are likely barely enough to cover basic transport needs of the world population. That's because most people have little access to transport as well as many other basic needs.
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Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 02 May 2017, 11:39:17

What is an eclectic car? Does it play to an eclectic rhythm?
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Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 02 May 2017, 11:58:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Squilliam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Perhaps you are imagining a science fiction future where no one owns a car at all, and we all summon robots driving EV cabs on our iPhone aps when we want to go somewhere?
Image
Did you request a robot-EV-cab?


Why not? ....It makes a hell of a lot of economic sense to run $50-100,000 eclectic cars as a service rather than something you own because the costs of owning a car go far beyond the purchase price or even direct costs.


Why not? Because we don't live in North Korea or a George Orwell dystopia where everything has to make "economic sense" to the Great Leader.

Do you also think it makes economic sense to feed everybody the same gruel every meal and make everyone dress in the same Mao suits so they all look just the same and make everyone live in identical little rooms? Gosh---that would be very economically efficient. Just imagine how much economic sense it makes to have everyone eat the same meal for every meal.

Thats been tried. Mao suits and gruel turned out to not be very popular. People don't want everyone and everything to be the same. People WANT to have their own cars, just like they want their own clothing styles and hairstyles and their own food. People turn out to be more than just cogs in some economic matrix.

No doubt lots of people will use autopilot EV cabs when they become available---heck I'll use an autopilot EV cab gladly when I visit New York or San Francisco. But a lot of people will also continue to drive their own cars.

Yes, I can see a day when people won't have cars. But its going to happen because the economy collapses and people will be too poor to buy cars. Its not going to happen because some ignorant faceless bureaucrat declares it doesn't make economic sense for people to own cars anymore and everyone must henceforth only use the official government approved EV-cabs and eat official government approved gruel at every meal.

Cheers!
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Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby Cog » Tue 02 May 2017, 12:24:51

The hard left has a lot of respect for the way North Korea controls their population. In their mind, its the model for how the USA and every Western nation should be run.
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Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 02 May 2017, 17:34:32

I predict the endpoint of the site will be the moderator locks all forums and has it sit here as an archive similar to The Oil Drum.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 02 May 2017, 17:59:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Squilliam', '@')Plant: People think that it was the ICE and cars that created the landscape of the West, and particularly America. However a significant part of that was zoning. When you're essentially required by law to provide parking near businesses you get things like the strip mall because that is the optimal format with respect to zoning. When you are forced by law to provide parking at every house you build not only does it mean you have to spend more money on roads and other infrastructure, but it also means you have to space houses further apart to give enough room for the garages and make sections larger. Medium density development that works extremely well for public transport and/or cycling and walking is essentially illegal to build anymore. Yet older suburbs designed for before the car was popular are now extremely valuable and desired spaces.

I'm not advocating an increase in control and regulation, but instead a reduction. Let people build and live in the places that they want to live in and let businesses decide how much parking they want to provide if at all. It makes even less sense to keep living under the same paradigm when there is every indication that the old way of life is going away one way or another. Eclectic cars are one aspect of this kind of change, but there is also an increasing movement away from wanting the same old cookie cutter suburbs put everywhere. Cut the regulations and let people knock down the old stuff to put in buildings that reflect the value of the land they are sitting on.

Before there were automobiles there were lots of house lots in the outskirts of cities and in small towns further out on the rail lines where each lot had both the house and a cow shed or barn where a buggy or sleigh or both were stored and the horse to pull it was stabled along with the family cow and a few chickens and a pig to eat the garbage. The automobile took up less parking space then the horse and buggy and didn't leave a pile of manure everywhere you parked it.
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Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 02 May 2017, 18:45:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Squilliam', 'A')nd there was so much 'free' manure that Paris practically fed itself within its city limits.

I have to doubt that one considering what happened in Paris during the siege of the Franco Prussian war (1870-71) They ate the dogs, cats, rats, and even the elephants in the zoo.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he whole idea of a 'back yard' is to have a place to grow vegetables and not grass to look at. The idea of a big grassy area used to be used as 'proof' that you didn't need to grow your own food because you were rich enough to buy it all. Look at the 3-5 story places in the old parts of cities like Boston -- incredibly valuable places to live. We don't need to return to the problems of horses or constant ICE travel if we can get the incentives right.

To do that we need to change zoning so that home, job,store , school, and health clinic are all within sight of each other.
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Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 02 May 2017, 22:25:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Squilliam', '
')
What I mean is the wider metropolitan area. Essentially the places where most people live, and most people have cars. It's a completely different metric once you get to the point whereby the cars last for a very long time, and the main replacement part is the battery. In this instance it doesn't matter if it costs another $15,000 for the thing to drive itself because you make it up by driving it a lot. We don't need to replace every single ICE vehicle with electric cars. Even a couple of % penetration would significantly reduce the total vehicle miles traveled due to the economics.


Most people worldwide barely have access to basic needs, let along passenger vehicles (ICE vehicles or otherwise).


We are well aware of American exceptionalism here.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 02 May 2017, 22:33:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'I') predict the endpoint of the site will be the moderator locks all forums and has it sit here as an archive similar to The Oil Drum.


Editors and contributors to the Oil Drum began to get dissed by the respective professional organizations involved (SPE,AAPG, SEG), and when the public laughter at your website reaches that high, you know it is doomed. This place doesn't have that type of component of known professors, minor academics or consultants looking for work telling folks that the end is nigh...so it is unlikely the previously mentioned mechanism (embarrassment mostly) will bring down this place.

After all, folks claiming peak oil happened a decade ago and at oil production rates 10,000,000 barrels a day less in production aren't bothered at all by revealing they don't live in the current reality, if the level of embarrassment that reveals won't stop this place, maybe nothing will.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 02 May 2017, 22:37:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'I') voted Economic collapse takes down server/Internet. PO,will be gradual until its not


More importantly, will it ever involve higher prices again, or will peak demand (a higher and higher probability cause of peak oil) counteract the forces of decreasing supply, balancing price all along the path?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: End of Peakoil.com website

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 02 May 2017, 22:39:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', ' ')In one hundred years what do you think the chances are that we will be driving around in individual rolling steel boxes powered by petroleum?


Zero. EVs are being designed, built and sold to the general problem right now that solves this problem. You should know this better than most here, having built yourself one.

Some of the rest of us just got one store bought.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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