[donstewart]

@Richard Heinberg; New Oil Model; ETP
Richard Heinberg reviews current 'respectable' collapsitarian publications, including one from France which tackles some of the same issues the ETP model addresses. And seemingly comes out with similar conclusions (although I haven't bought and read the full article).

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017- ... -grenades/

Don Stewart

[Observerbrb]

Oil prices fading away after latest API data is out

Crude +897K
Gasoline +4.445MM
Distillates -36K
Cushing -1.971MM

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') would say so. We complain about having to get up, go to the fridge and get our food out of it, pre-packaged and ready for consumption. Wait until we have to grow, cook and consume our food without any fossil fuel. There will be a lot of people who will just cluster near the feeding stations, but some will figure out how to do it again.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Some never forgot. The cure to peak oil, as generally advocated by the collapse club? See below. I wonder why so few, who honestly believe this is where the world is headed, aren't swelling their ranks by the millions already?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Some never forgot. The cure to peak oil, as generally advocated by the collapse club? See below. I wonder why so few, who honestly believe this is where the world is headed, aren't swelling their ranks by the millions already?

[Revi]

Whatever Adam B. At least you respond to things. I think we'll lose a lot of big ag when things get bad.

[ROCKMAN]

Revi - "I think we'll lose a lot of big ag when things get bad." When I allow myself to fantasize about future doom and gloom that's where my thoughts lead. Not as much for the more affluent economies like the US and Europe. I can see no way to continue feeding the world's population (which isn't happening very well today for hundreds of millions) without commercial ag. And commercial ag that thrives on burning fossil fuels as well as fertilizing with them. Small scale farms can work well but are just that: small scale:

"After 5 years of steady growth, U.S. agricultural exports declined in 2015 to $133 billion due to slower world economic growth, a strong U.S. dollar, lower exports of high-value products, and falling prices for bulk commodities."

Obviously that $133 billion wasn't grown by hundreds of thousands of farmers tending 20 acre plots. And it wouldn't be just less production but also at higher prices. So even if commercial ag can maintain output as we stubble down the PO path the cost will increase. And that's in a world where many are priced out to some degree of the market place TODAY.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')hatever Adam B. At least you respond to things. I think we'll lose a lot of big ag when things get bad.

[onlooker]

Revi, all Adam has is the repeating meme of so far the timing if predictions of Doom have been faulty therefore the reasoning behind such predictions is also. When someone who is in the Industry like Rockman can utter the following, it shows the bleak path we on:
"Obviously that $133 billion wasn't grown by hundreds of thousands of farmers tending 20 acre plots. And it wouldn't be just less production but also at higher prices. So even if commercial ag can maintain output as we stubble down the PO path the cost will increase. And that's in a world where many are priced out to some degree of the market place TODAY."

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')
Obviously that $133 billion wasn't grown by hundreds of thousands of farmers tending 20 acre plots. And it wouldn't be just less production but also at higher prices. So even if commercial ag can maintain output as we stubble down the PO path the cost will increase. And that's in a world where many are priced out to some degree of the market place TODAY.

[Revi]

Big ag depends on cheap energy. If the price of diesel goes up it wrecks the whole model. I am not saying that it's going to be wonderful to lose it, but the era of cheap food is coming to an end. Those small farms aren't going to be a great place to be either, but at least they will feed some people. The vast majority are going to be in trouble. Big ag will continue, but they are commodity farms, and need to be given subsidies to survive. They sell wholesale into the market. Smaller farmers usually sell retail and can't make as much food.

[dirtyharry]

[/quote]If you look at farm statistics you can see that fuel and fertilizer as well as herbicides make up about half of the production costs of grain crops. So if the price of oil were to double, corn grown for $5.00 per bushel today would cost about $7.50 per bushel depending on crop rotations and chemical inputs. That would also carry through to the price of eggs ,milk and meat but food would still be relatively cheap here in America[/color]

Vts ,stupid is what stupid does/says . The heart is only 5% of body weight ,so no problem if it pops off .We will ask the kidneys to do the extra work . Evidently you are illiterate as far as how complex systems work .Suggested readings Tainter ,Diamond, Korowicz ,Heinberg etc . Oh and if you have read them then truly it is "Stupid is what stupid does/says"

[zleo99]

As much as I appreciate Short, PStarr, Onlooker and Etp, and understand the Export Land Model points made by PStarr, I have looked hard at the data available on the EIA website, and am unable to see any problems reflected in the refining industry economics.

The following quotes from the latest, 26 April, https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/ do not suggest the imminent demise of US refining.

"Favorable product price spreads, infrastructure changes, and abundant cost-advantaged crude oil have facilitated the shift in net shipment patterns." and
"The development of the Canadian oil sands and light, tight crude oil in the United States have provided refiners in the Midwest with abundant, cost-advantaged crude oil, providing opportunities to optimize crude slates, expand refinery capacity, and sell to a wider geographic market,..."

I also don't understand why the Refinery & Blender Net Inputs are compared with Refinery-Only Outputs to arrive at Short's conclusions, and would greatly appreciate more explanation.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'B')ig ag depends on cheap energy. If the price of diesel goes up it wrecks the whole model. I am not saying that it's going to be wonderful to lose it, but the era of cheap food is coming to an end. Those small farms aren't going to be a great place to be either, but at least they will feed some people. The vast majority are going to be in trouble. Big ag will continue, but they are commodity farms, and need to be given subsidies to survive. They sell wholesale into the market. Smaller farmers usually sell retail and can't make as much food.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'R')evi, all Adam has is the repeating meme of so far the timing if predictions of Doom have been faulty therefore the reasoning behind such predictions is also.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'B')ig ag depends on cheap energy.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')How does a price increase of fuel "wreck the model"? Scarce high priced fuel and fertilizer will crowd out the least efficient farmers and cause production numbers to fall and unit sale prices to rise which will eliminate the need for any subsidies. All farms are commodity farms just some small ones use their production to subsist on and their production numbers are much smaller.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')How does a price increase of fuel "wreck the model"? Scarce high priced fuel and fertilizer will crowd out the least efficient farmers and cause production numbers to fall and unit sale prices to rise which will eliminate the need for any subsidies. All farms are commodity farms just some small ones use their production to subsist on and their production numbers are much smaller.