Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
Post a reply

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 18:15:30

Then I am not sure what numbers Short is using. Other than diesel, other output seems inconsequential.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10957
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 13:49:04
Location: NY, USA
Top

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Observerbrb » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 18:15:38

This is how Peak Oil looks like, from a Saudi Arabia perspective:

Image

How long before the kingdom rulers are hung from lamp posts?

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/s ... e-reserves
Observerbrb
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 408
Joined: Mon 08 Dec 2014, 15:24:48
Top

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Observerbrb » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 19:40:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')What is the significance of the post-2005 buildup and the current collapse?


Hard currency was entering the economy due to the Oil price increase. KSA was able to finance its mega-projects and spread the wealth around.

The current collapse means that Oil sales are no longer covering the financial needs of the state. You have two options in this situation:

- To cut back your spending (which is happening, but it is clearly not enough)
- Increase your revenues

When FX reserves are exhausted, KSA will have a hard time trying to control inflationary forces and mantaining social stability. Because we are living in a globalized world, KSA needs to have access to hard currency (it is currently doing so by selling Oil, NG, etc in US dollars) to import other products (food, equipment, machinery, chemicals, electronics...). As KSA exports consist mainly of Petroleum and related by-products (see: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... reemap.png ), their ability to import the products that sustain their society, their powerful army, their constructions... will shrink in a fast way.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hat exactly does it say about SA and its oil business?


It says that they have 4-5-6 years before their rulers are hung by the masses. I suppose they need some type of miracle to wean their economy off oil in that period.
Observerbrb
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 408
Joined: Mon 08 Dec 2014, 15:24:48
Top

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 21:35:44

Notice that when links to references are demanded and then supplied that those links are never mentioned much less discussed. A clear case of are you going to believe Shorty and Pstarr or your lying eyes. :)
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_in ... blpd_a.htm
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_re ... mbbl_m.htm
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Observerbrb » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 15:04:20

Oil price falling on heavy volume right now
Observerbrb
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 408
Joined: Mon 08 Dec 2014, 15:24:48
Top

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 15:46:55

Reason for the price drop is two fold....less of a draw on inventories than was expected and also Saudi Arabia in March increased export of crude to East Asia, apparently the second highest monthly shipments on record.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7685
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 20:22:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Observerbrb', 'O')il price falling on heavy volume right now


Maybe its another peak oil causing it? Worked pretty good the last couple of times!!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 23:31:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'R')eason for the price drop is two fold....less of a draw on inventories than was expected and also Saudi Arabia in March increased export of crude to East Asia, apparently the second highest monthly shipments on record.

No. It is because the rest of the world, those other poor unfortunates in the other 190 some-odd countries, are poor and getting poorer.
Image
And so too are Americans. We are driving less because we are broke. It's what happens when oil (the real stuff, <45API) peaks

No Americans are not broke, they are just getting older and retiring and driving golf carts instead of work trucks. I used to drive as much as fifty thousand miles a year chasing paving crews around. I wont drive ten thousand miles this year. :)
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 23:36:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd so too are Americans. We are driving less because we are broke. It's what happens when oil (the real stuff, <45API) peaks


At the risk of being rude....that is just dumb. Look at an updated chart. IN the US miles driven is at an all time high. Gasoline consumption is at an all time high. Showing a graph from 6 years ago and saying it is representative of the situation now is worse than misleading. :roll:
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7685
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 00:56:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd so too are Americans. We are driving less because we are broke. It's what happens when oil (the real stuff, <45API) peaks


At the risk of being rude....that is just dumb.


Accurate characterization of pstarrs disconnect from reality and the facts is not rude. It is just another recognition that peak oil to them is about belief, not facts, and always has been.

I remember studying the works of Colin Campbell earlier in the century, telling myself over and over again that someone with his kind of industry experience couldn't be dismissed like the oil-ignorant, he knew something, and I just couldn't see it. Took a year, going through his books, his publications, before the only logical conclusion that was left to me was that zealotry doesn't correlate with brain power. Even smart folks, who know things, can be true believers in a way that short circuits those neurons and experience. That was the day I realized that peak oil isn't about oil, or engineering, or geology or economics...it is about belief. Sure, peak oil will someday happen, it is axiomatic. But you can see this best in a poster like pstarr, a decade after the event, still trying to pretend it happened because he can't let go, ever, and it just doesn't matter, the weight of the evidence, reality, the facts. He will believe for as long as he does, and reality and facts and science won't ever change that. Probably won't for Colin either.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rocdoc123', '
') Look at an updated chart. IN the US miles driven is at an all time high. Gasoline consumption is at an all time high. Showing a graph from 6 years ago and saying it is representative of the situation now is worse than misleading. :roll:


Reality is irrelevant to believers.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Darian S » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 16:19:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.') But you can see this best in a poster like pstarr, a decade after the event, still trying to pretend it happened because he can't let go, ever, and it just doesn't matter, the weight of the evidence, reality, the facts.


When I see the US production graph, something fostered that sudden ramp. And I don't think it was the hopes of bankruptcy by companies, more than likely it was reality. Are we to believe this new ramp in production was just the same easy to get type of oil that was just left sitting there for countless decades? That it was left without such avid use, just because? That all the middle east politics could have easily been avoided because the U.S. can really produce far more enough to be independent fuel wise if only there was the will?

Can that ramp go up significantly above the previous peak? Can it sustain it for the indefinite future, at least the coming decades? Is the word that the newer wells drop production rapidly wrong?

The idea of a peak is not the end of oil, but merely a peak in production, unable to sustain significant increases above the peak for the relative near future. Can the U.S. increase production significantly above their prior peak and sustain it for decades. If not at least for the U.S. it has peaked.
Last edited by Darian S on Thu 20 Apr 2017, 16:41:33, edited 1 time in total.
Darian S
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 114
Joined: Mon 29 Feb 2016, 16:47:02
Top

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Cog » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 17:19:06

Would $1000 be an acceptable bet on that Pstarr?

1972 peak production 9,637,000 bbl/day US production

My bet is it will go higher. Do we have a bet?
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13416
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan
Top

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 17:31:37

I'll take that bet too. My data says the previous US peak was in 1970 but the same annual average of 9637 Mbpd given previously. I'm betting US production will go higher. What are we betting? Cash or something else? What about sigs? How about the loser has to put in their sig: I bow before <winner's name> in all things.
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 5064
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Illinois
Top

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 17:40:05

Paypal is fine with me. Say 12/31/2020 for end date? Something like:
If annual average US oil production, as reported by the EIA, goes higher than 9637 Mbpd by 12/31/2020, Cog & kublikhan win. If the annual average is below 9637 Mbpd for the duration, pstarr wins. And are we going with $1,000 for you vs Cog and $1,000 for you vs me as well?
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 5064
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Illinois
Top
PreviousNext
Post a reply

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests



cron