[BJ_The_Man]

I personaly feel that the affects will last 30 years Max and a minimum of 5 years, I just dont see how people would completely stop producing forever after peak oil has struck us, I for one would never give up all because my most valuable recource is gone/ in decline, I would find other ways. There are other ways to produce other than fossil fuels. I understand that all alternative recources will not be able to do what fossil fuels have done for us the last 120-150 years but that does not mean that we cant have one alternative recource to take the place of natural gas for electricity and heating, than another for transportation, and others for other things that we currently have. I dont see how we could not recover within 5-30 years is there something I am missing I want to be able to understand why the whole world is going back to how it was before we started using fossil fuels. Why will alternative not work at all

Another question I have is why do some people here think that the people of the world will just flat out give up on preducing anything that would help to further expand technology

[freetoken]

... on the key elements of energy crises. Don't be put off by the anti-human doomers here... those people always have and always will be around.

The key elements of looming energy crises have to do with: (1) the amount of available (through chemistry) energy per unit volume that petroleum has, and (2) how readily available it has been to the world as a whole, since it's first industrial uses.

So if you go back and read some of the *good* information available, you will see people struggling with both of these issues, which are not trivial:
(1) how to find transportable sources of energy, and (2) how to make such energy sources available worldwide in the limited amount of time given the petroleum reduced production curves.

The world will most certainly go on. The question is merely what it will look like.

[BJ_The_Man]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('freetoken', '.').. on the key elements of energy crises. Don't be put off by the anti-human doomers here... those people always have and always will be around.

The key elements of looming energy crises have to do with: (1) the amount of available (through chemistry) energy per unit volume that petroleum has, and (2) how readily available it has been to the world as a whole, since it's first industrial uses.

So if you go back and read some of the *good* information available, you will see people struggling with both of these issues, which are not trivial:
(1) how to find transportable sources of energy, and (2) how to make such energy sources available worldwide in the limited amount of time given the petroleum reduced production curves.

The world will most certainly go on. The question is merely what it will look like.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BJ_The_Man', 'I') personaly feel that the affects will last 30 years Max and a minimum of 5 years, I just dont see how people would completely stop producing forever after peak oil has struck us, I for one would never give up all because my most valuable recource is gone/ in decline, I would find other ways. There are other ways to produce other than fossil fuels. I understand that all alternative recources will not be able to do what fossil fuels have done for us the last 120-150 years but that does not mean that we cant have one alternative recource to take the place of natural gas for electricity and heating, than another for transportation, and others for other things that we currently have. I dont see how we could not recover within 5-30 years is there something I am missing I want to be able to understand why the whole world is going back to how it was before we started using fossil fuels. Why will alternative not work at all

Another question I have is why do some people here think that the people of the world will just flat out give up on preducing anything that would help to further expand technology

[BlisteredWhippet]

I'll throw in my 2 cents and disagree.

The main problem with finding new technology is that it requires energy inputs. The main problem with this being a short-term inconvenience is that it ignores the fact that new energy sources probably won't be found. If cold fusion, zero-point, etc. types of energy were possible, someone would probably already be developing it.

And even if they did come online, theres little doubt in my mind they could replace the the kind of functionality the oil/gas sources of energy provide in useful terms. Bottom line is that we will not be able to run things the way we did before. Everything that is based on those precursors of fossil fuels will become dysfunctional. That is, our whole way of life. Supermarkets. Agribusiness. Transportation.

Given 30 years, there will be some stabilization... after all the war, famine, and disease, I would guess it would be inevitable.


Just out of curiosity, BJ_The_Man, what do you "produce" currently? What kinds of things do people produce that have any value these days? I look around, I see that people drive trucks, sell or make electrical widgets, service industry jobs, service jobs, etc. etc.

No one makes anything anyone really needs. Imagine having no job, no, scratch that. Imagine having a job, while everyone else has no job.

It seems to me that what you need to understand is how "Energy" works and its limitations, how it produced and used in this society, and how much of the human population's quality of life is leveraged on the availability of cheap energy. Without it, the whole house of cards comes crashing down, okay?

"Sustainability" isn't some far-out concept, cooked up by "anti-human" crackpots. Its an immutable law of ecology and physics. Theres nothing religious about belief in sustainability.

[I_Like_Plants]

Forfuckingever what do you think??? You think it's gonna be a tough decade or so then Friendman's gonna drive you a new hydrogenmobile himself???

I love my bicycles, both bought new and beautiful things, but I sure as hell don't think I'll be able to keep those if things turn out the way. ..... they usually do. If I'm lucky I get to enjoy the walking skills I developed in childhood and get to make shoes, starting out with my own. (I actually can do a bit of everything, but I think cobblers are hugely underappreciated.)

[BJ_The_Man]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BJ_The_Man', 'I') personaly feel that the affects will last 30 years Max and a minimum of 5 years, I just dont see how people would completely stop producing forever after peak oil has struck us, I for one would never give up all because my most valuable recource is gone/ in decline, I would find other ways. There are other ways to produce other than fossil fuels. I understand that all alternative recources will not be able to do what fossil fuels have done for us the last 120-150 years but that does not mean that we cant have one alternative recource to take the place of natural gas for electricity and heating, than another for transportation, and others for other things that we currently have. I dont see how we could not recover within 5-30 years is there something I am missing I want to be able to understand why the whole world is going back to how it was before we started using fossil fuels. Why will alternative not work at all

Another question I have is why do some people here think that the people of the world will just flat out give up on preducing anything that would help to further expand technology

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BJ_The_Man', ' ')
No the affects will not last forever if the needed alternative recoureces that use less energy than they produce such as solar, wind, hydro, and even nuclear, are put into mass production. You and I both know that there are other tipes of oil on the planet, we also know that to survive energy will cost us much more than it ever has before, but unlike you I think that we the people can do it. Humans would have never gotten this far if they had given up when they hit the bump in the road, why would we start now. Your talking like were all dumed to die because will do absolutely nothing and accept our inevitable demise. This will be more like a cliff than a bump but it is posible to recover from this freefall. Why do you think that we will just through everthing away and go the way of death.

[BJ_The_Man]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'I')'ll throw in my 2 cents and disagree.

The main problem with finding new technology is that it requires energy inputs. The main problem with this being a short-term inconvenience is that it ignores the fact that new energy sources probably won't be found. If cold fusion, zero-point, etc. types of energy were possible, someone would probably already be developing it.

And even if they did come online, theres little doubt in my mind they could replace the the kind of functionality the oil/gas sources of energy provide in useful terms. Bottom line is that we will not be able to run things the way we did before. Everything that is based on those precursors of fossil fuels will become dysfunctional. That is, our whole way of life. Supermarkets. Agribusiness. Transportation.

Given 30 years, there will be some stabilization... after all the war, famine, and disease, I would guess it would be inevitable.


Just out of curiosity, BJ_The_Man, what do you "produce" currently? What kinds of things do people produce that have any value these days? I look around, I see that people drive trucks, sell or make electrical widgets, service industry jobs, service jobs, etc. etc.

No one makes anything anyone really needs. Imagine having no job, no, scratch that. Imagine having a job, while everyone else has no job.

It seems to me that what you need to understand is how "Energy" works and its limitations, how it produced and used in this society, and how much of the human population's quality of life is leveraged on the availability of cheap energy. Without it, the whole house of cards comes crashing down, okay?

"Sustainability" isn't some far-out concept, cooked up by "anti-human" crackpots. Its an immutable law of ecology and physics. Theres nothing religious about belief in sustainability.

[Ardalla]

I agree. The effects of PO are permanent. The extent of those effects are unforeseeable. Could be a disaster or a mild inconvenience.

[Nike62]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BJ_The_Man', '
')I produce more than I consume in power in fuel and in any other recource that I consume.

[RonMN]

Ofcourse we will continue to produce...but this is a "forever" type situation. There will be a die-off of millions (or billions) of people...the key is that you and I are not among them.

We will eventually have to walk instead of drive...out houses will be a basement with a roof on it (to regulate inside temperatures). The "survivalists" will do what it takes to survive and others will die. The economy will crash, it WILL get ugly...but it wont be the end of the friggin world!

[gt1370a]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BJ_The_Man', '
')Actually yes, I do not have a job, but I do have my own lawn mawong business with 21 lawns , and my dad makes me pay for everything I use, to get me used to the real world, not the fake one school sets up for you. I make well more than I spend to support my self thus meaning I produce more than I consume in power in fuel and in any other recource that I consume. My goal is to produce self sufficiently though and beleive me I will be within the next 5 years easily. A person that does not produce is not only someone that consumes more than they produce but also some one who is not debt free, like my family will be within the next 6 months, and someone who goes to work each day, and thinks they are making money. They do not realise that they are realy earning money. People that have there own bussiness or make there money through assets, those are the people that acually produce. I consider myself and my family that kind of person.

[Ludi]

I think we should cut BJ some slack because of his youth. I do agree he needs to do a lot more homework.

Personally, I'm not seeing the necessity in "producing and growing" as a species, we're much more likely to succeed for the long run if we stabilize our population at a sustainable number, however many that turns out to be. Humans lived that way for about a million years until the invention of widescale agriculture and cities. Prior to that, they had invented the main great things of humanity - language, technology (making things), art, and music. So, we certainly won't lose those things by finding a sustainable way to live. But we may lose our chance to live at all if we keep "growing and producing." We're reaching the limit of many of Earth's life support systems, and transforming much of Earth's biomass into human mass or desert. Peak oil is just part of this big picture.

[TheTurtle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BJ_The_Man', 'W')hy do you think that we will just through everthing away and go the way of death. That is definately unhuman and I dont think it will happen EVER. I think that alternatives will meet curent demand, but anythin beond that will depend on technological advancements, that do not polute and destroy the earth that produce more than thye consume, and of course what we the humans can produce in future.

[gt1370a]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nike62', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BJ_The_Man', '
')I produce more than I consume in power in fuel and in any other recource that I consume.

[Bedevere]

Over the long term, any rate of mineral extraction, be it oil, coal, uranium, etc is not sustainable. Any rate of population increase and any rate of economic or any other type of growth are also not sustainable.

"Anybody who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist."
[credit to whoever wrote this quote...I do not know]

[cube]

Ever heard of "The Olduvai Theory"?

The theory states that in order for a society to advance from a low to high technology level it needs resources. For example a steam engine would be worthless without coal. Even if a society had the technological know how it could not use steam engines without coal. And internal combustion engines aren't very practical without cheap oil.

Lets be positive and assume that we will find a super high tech solution to peak oil. Nuclear fussion? Matter-Antimatter warp drive propulsion? Whatever...that's not the point. History has shown that civilizations rise and fall. So it's a gurantee nuclear war will happen sometime in the future and once it does we'll all get pushed back to the dark ages.

No problem, all we have to do is climb back up the technological ladder again! But you're forgetting something. We have already used up all the coal and oil. No coal == no steam engine == no industrial revolution. Society remains in the dark ages forever.

Sounds pretty pessimistic huh?

Getting a little off topic here there's a paradox called Femi's Paradox that states if there's billions and billions of stars then surely there must be lots of intelligent aliens from outer space. So if that's the case then why haven't we recieved a signal from them? Maybe "The Olduvai Theory" is the answer to Femi's Paradox.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'E')ver heard of "The Olduvai Theory"?

The theory states that in order for a society to advance from a low to high technology level it needs resources. For example a steam engine would be worthless without coal. Even if a society had the technological know how it could not use steam engines without coal. And internal combustion engines aren't very practical without cheap oil.

Lets be positive and assume that we will find a super high tech solution to peak oil. Nuclear fussion? Matter-Antimatter warp drive propulsion? Whatever...that's not the point. History has shown that civilizations rise and fall. So it's a gurantee nuclear war will happen sometime in the future and once it does we'll all get pushed back to the dark ages.

No problem, all we have to do is climb back up the technological ladder again! But you're forgetting something. We have already used up all the coal and oil. No coal == no steam engine == no industrial revolution. Society remains in the dark ages forever.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

"No coal == no steam engine == no industrial revolution. Society remains in the dark ages forever."

While I agree with you there will undoubtly be a dark age, for a fair few years, it will not last forever at all. You do not NEED industrialism to have a civilisation, far from it.