[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ot having any way to tease out a prediction via science means the discussion falls back to individual predictions based on little more than hunches and predisposition. It's the equivalent to people betting on college sports.

[onlooker]

Obviously, asg, either you give no merit to the Etp modeling or have not even looked into it. The modeling though not strictly intended as a prediction tool nevertheless produces results that logically suggest the timing of a catastrophic fall in oil production and/or cessation of oil industry functions via an scientific analysis of energy inputs and outputs. From there one can surmise devastating consequences

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '
')
Not having any way to tease out a prediction via science means the discussion falls back to individual predictions based on little more than hunches and predisposition. It's the equivalent to people betting on college sports.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'O')bviously, asg, either you give no merit to the Etp modeling or have not even looked into it. The modeling though not strictly intended as a prediction tool nevertheless produces results that logically suggest the timing of a catastrophic fall in oil production and/or cessation of oil industry functions via an scientific analysis of energy inputs and outputs. From there one can surmise devastating consequences

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')bviously, asg, either you give no merit to the Etp modeling or have not even looked into it. The modeling though not strictly intended as a prediction tool nevertheless produces results that logically suggest the timing of a catastrophic fall in oil production and/or cessation of oil industry functions via an scientific analysis of energy inputs and outputs.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Ghawar may be the largest and most prolific conventional oil field on earth, but it isn't infinite. At some point oil production will peak and then fall at Ghawar.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'O')bviously, asg, either you give no merit to the Etp modeling or have not even looked into it.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Ghawar may be the largest and most prolific conventional oil field on earth, but it isn't infinite. At some point oil production will peak and then fall at Ghawar.

[rockdoc123]

don't need the IHS estimate given there are now two independent audits on Saudi oil reserves

http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/r-saudi-aramcos-oil-reserves-confirmed-by-external-audit--sources-2017-1-1001701283

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')UBAI/KHOBAR, Saudi Arabia/LONDON, Jan 27 (Reuters) - The first independent audit of Saudi Aramco's oil reserves has confirmed the state oil company's own figures, sources familiar with the situation said, ahead of its planned share market listing next year.
The listing, expected to be the world's biggest initial public offering (IPO), is a centrepiece of a Saudi Arabian government plan to transform the country by enticing investment and diversifying the economy away from oil.
Based on a figure of 265 billion barrels, Aramco's fields contain about 15 percent of the world's proven reserves. Any finding that the reserves are significantly above or below that could affect the company's market value in the listing.
"The independent audit produced no surprises," a source familiar with the situation said on Friday. "Aramco's reserves have always been reported internally in line with international practice."
Aramco had asked two U.S. oil reserve auditing specialists to review its deposits.
These are Gaffney, Cline and Associates, part of Baker Hughes and Dallas-based DeGolyer and MacNaughton. DeGolyer and MacNaughton completed its audit last year, two of the sources said.
Aramco and DeGolyer could not be reached for immediate comment on Friday. Gaffney Cline also could not be reached for immediate comment.
Saudi Arabia's proven oil reserves have been listed at about 265 billion barrels in oil industry reference publications such as the BP Statistical Review of World Energy for many years.
Aramco said its crude oil and condensate reserves were 261.1 billion barrels in its 2015 annual report.
The reserves audit produced figures "definitely not below" those published by Aramco, a second source familiar with the matter said, while a third source said the auditing firm's estimate was higher than Aramco's own.

[tita]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')I also want to remind everyone that peak oil refers to the peak of production, it does not refer to the point at which you have produced half of the reserves. There are many, many reasons to see fields and hence countries where the peak production rate is reached well before the half way point on recoverable reserves and in some cases the peak production rate could indeed be reached at a point quite awhile after half of the recoverable reserves have been produced.

[spike]

Simmons quoted 1975 estimates by the American partners in Aramco that Ghawar was 61.5 billion barrels and the country 108 billion. He made no reference to reserve growth, but thought those numbers might be credible, given the source. Most recently, the field has been said to have produced 65 billion and have 70 billion reserves remaining. http://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/ ... oil-field/ Matt also repeated the claim that production peaked when half of a fields URR had been produced, which means that Ghawar and Saudi Arabia should have peaked long ago, especially if you believe the 1975 estimates. The ASPO 2002 estimate of 300 Billion URR would also bring us close to a peak now.

[ROCKMAN]

tita - "Typically a tight oil well reach peak production well before the half way point." Perhaps you meant to say a tight oil play and not a well. Typically a tite oil well reaches its peak rate the first month it begins producing...sometimes the first week. And it recovers half of its ultimate recovery very early in its life...perhaps in Year 2 or 3 of a 10+ year life. This is particularly true of fracture production with it high initial decline rate.

And you make a good point about production constraints. One aspect often not mentioned is a significant constraint that has nothing to do with the wells themselves. It the surface production equipment...especially true for the oil/water separation equipment. A critical factor for all of us producing water-drive reservoirs. As derpletion continues the water cut (% of the stream that's water) can increase from 0% to 98%. Yes: there are wells that can still produce a positive cash flow with a 98% WC even at $30/bbl...or less.

But as WC increases the processing infrastructure has to be expanded and that takes increasing capex. A system designed to handle a 10% WC cannot handle a 30% WC. So one approach to dealing with an increased WC is to reduce the production rate. A well producing 1,000 bbls of fluid per day (bfpd) with a 10% WC (900 bopd) might be handled OK. But increase to a 20% WC (800 bopd) and capex has to be spent on expansion of the oil/water seperation equipment. And if the price of oil doesn't justify that new investment? Simple solution: reduce production to 500 bfpd (400 bopd) and the system can then handle a 20% WC. Revenue decreases but such is life in the oil patch. But what happens if the oil price increases significantly? That operator might invest enough not to just handle 1,000 bfpd at 20% WC (800 bopd) but expand even more to handle 2,000 bfpd at a 20% WC (1,600 bopd).

Unfortunately we never get to see the details of KSA operations but we have seen reports of periodic significant expansion of its SURFACE production facilities. But there's another protocol the entire oil patch uses: selective production: shut in the wells with higher WC's and increase production from the better wells. This allows an increase in oil volume without spending capex to increase "handling capacity"...the general term for the capacity of the surface production equipment.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spike', 'S')immons quoted 1975 estimates by the American partners in Aramco that Ghawar was 61.5 billion barrels and the country 108 billion.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')oes Ghawar contain another 50 BILLION bbls of oil? Who knows?

[Synapsid]

rockdoc,

"...and spit a stream of rum over it."

I didn't know about the rum part. This is exciting! One learns so much at this site.

(yellow smiley face goes up there)

[Synapsid]

ROCKMAN, rockdoc,

This is off topic but: A couple of weeks ago Ian Austin over at OilPro suggested that partial upgrading designed to remove asphaltenes would render oil-sands bitumen transportable by pipeline without diluent required. (I think I have that right.)

Assuming that I haven't misremembered, does the idea sound reasonable?

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ssuming that I haven't misremembered, does the idea sound reasonable?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')
IHS has an estimate of how much oil is in Ghawar. The USGS used those numbers during their global reserve growth update a few years back. The IHS estimate of inplace and recoverable of Ghawar just happens to have changed recently.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')I can only provide a link where you can sign up for access to their database yourself.