by Plantagenet » Tue 14 Feb 2017, 14:10:35
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
') I hate to break it to you but you are so late and so out of date that Matt Simmons and Michael Lynch have both been dead for years.
I know. And yet he still shows up in the Wiki as a reference on being an industry "expert", in the second paragraph no less. Seems like his ideas, even as bad as they were, are still in the modern lexicon of what it means to be off your rocker bonkers.
You don't understand what Wikipedia is. Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia whose mission is to include articles on essentially all history and all knowledge. People like Simmons and Lynch aren't going to disappear from Wikipedia when they die, no matter how much you mock them----that is contrary to the mission of Wikipedia.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')
Once upon a time there was this idea, and it was called "science". By compiling knowledge and understanding by those who have gone before, referencing their ideas and experiment, new ideas and concepts are formulated on that basis. The opposite is also true, as previous people are discredited in their thinking, in its quality or predictive ability, going forward people who study these past ideas (we'll call them "scientists") know to not run down those blind alleys, not to make the logic faults made by those who came before, to learn from their mistakes and ideas since discredited by reality. So we learn from the mistakes of Campbell and Heinberg, Ruppert and Savinar, Tverberg and Klare, Top Whipple and Ugo, Cobb and Kjell, Berman and Martenson.
Without prior understanding of how things have gone wrong, there can be no learning from past mistakes, and humans being prone to repeat history they haven't learned, we say and do the same nonsensical things all over again. Peak oil being a perfect example of just that.
Have a nice day!
Of course.
At the same time anyone with even a slight knowledge of science should know that there are numerous examples of scientists who everyone thought was wrong who eventually turned out to be right as well as scientific theories that everyone thinks is right that turn out to be dead wrong. Plate Tectonics, for instance, was wrong....then it was right. The young earth used to be scientific gospel thanks to the clever work of Lord Kelvin, but now its wrong. Evolution was wrong until it was right. Medical science was sure that fogs caused disease and then they discovered germs. etc. etc.
Right now its pretty clear Hubbert was wrong in all of his specific predictions about the timing, mechanisms, and predictability of peak oil. But, nonetheless, its still possible that global oil production may "peak" at the some time in the future, whether from "peak demand" or some other cause. When that happens don't be too shocked if people drag out Hubbert's original prediction of peak oil and give him credit for coming up with the whole idea.
CHEERS!
by AdamB » Tue 14 Feb 2017, 16:57:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')At the same time anyone with even a slight knowledge of science should know that there are numerous examples of scientists who everyone thought was wrong who eventually turned out to be right as well as scientific theories that everyone thinks is right that turn out to be dead wrong. Plate Tectonics, for instance, was wrong....then it was right. The young earth used to be scientific gospel thanks to the clever work of Lord Kelvin, but now its wrong. Evolution was wrong until it was right. Medical science was sure that fogs caused disease and then they discovered germs. etc. etc.
Absolutely correct. The beauty of science, it does tend to self correct, be it your examples, or the global cooling of the 1970's becoming the current global warming instead.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('plantagenet', '
')Right now its pretty clear Hubbert was wrong in all of his specific predictions about the timing, mechanisms, and predictability of peak oil. But, nonetheless, its still possible that global oil production may "peak" at the some time in the future, whether from "peak demand" or some other cause.
Not possible. MUST. Hubbert's axiomatic work on production rates is not disputed. But part of the reason we reference past folks who screwed the pooch is because there is no reason to think that between the last couple of peaks, and the next few, the economic principles that caused all those claims to be wrong are still functioning, and sorting out the issue just like they did whale oil consumption. That one being the result of substitution. The same one currently in play in terms of how my wife powers her car every day.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('plantagenet', '
') When that happens don't be too shocked if people drag out Hubbert's original prediction of peak oil and give him credit for coming up with the whole idea.
CHEERS!
He is dead, therefore he can't modify his since discredited idea. Certainly the only time I have seen his writings talk about the multiple peaks in oil rate that are becoming more than a little obvious, and common, was in 1938, when he was predicting peak oil in the US by 1950. Mason Inman writes about this in his book, "The Oracle of Oil". Hubbert was just another in a long line of scientists who built on the work of others, added some themselves, and perhaps got pieces right along the way. But coming up with the whole idea? That would require defining just exactly what "idea" we are talking about. The science he is known for was outstanding, but I'm not sure I would include his dabbling in drawing bell shaped curves on things with his real achievements.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
by AdamB » Tue 14 Feb 2017, 17:03:19
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'N')ot "scared" of PO? If one has paid attention to the various aspects of the peak oil dynamic for the last 25 years (high oil prices, oil patch bust, $trillions spent on military activities in the ME along with the lose of thousands of our miliutary along with hundreds of thousands of civilians, economic damage, etc) and aren't concerned about the nature of our energy future then they have no understanding of how the world actually functions.
A life spent being scared of a thing that never arrives (not PO, but the claimed consequences of PO, you know, the ones where Jimmy carter said we would run out of oil by the late 1980's) might be equated as a wasted life. I'm betting you didn't let PO from Hubbert's 1950 claim of US peak, or claim of world peak of only 12.5 billion barrels a year wreck your life 20 years ago any more than I let it wreck mine. Matter of fact, I'm betting you made more than a little extra coin off all the sheeple being afraid of scarcity, while industry waited in the wings, ready to pile on ingenuity and technology to bring the US its fastest growing oil production rates right when it was needed. So bravo for not being afraid of PO there rockman, and giving the consumers of the country what they wanted, the wall street banking houses what they wanted, and keeping a little more for yourself than the poor schmucks who were busy investing in growing a permaculture business over the past decade.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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by AdamB » Tue 14 Feb 2017, 21:57:57
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')damB, really? You will not succeed in dragging either Jimmy Carter or Mathew Simmons into your pathetic little intern games. President Carter is busy at work on his peanut farm (installing 1.3 mw of solar) the other long dead and laughing in his crypt. At you.
Rockman made an actual argument. Speak to him or stop wasting everybody's time.
Considering that you are one who has benefited from low fossil fuel prices as of late, and believes that peak oil happened some decade ago, can you regale us with how the resulting horrors have changed your CO2 emitting lifestyle? Were you forced to move into a fedghetto? Lose your fantastic job because you could no longer afford to buy shoes? Did PO stop your families participation in eco-protests against people driving CO2 emitting cars...excluding yourself of course, good intentions meaning more than the actions other families, like mine, undertake. Please, share, tell us how you have been quaking in your boots about this PO thing that happened a decade ago...those of us who don't have the sheeple perspective of fear about peak oil a decade back...leading to...interesting...increasing oil and gas production.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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by kublikhan » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 10:38:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spike', 'W')hat's amazing are the way some of the posters are absolutely certain about what's going to happen, or their interpretation of what's happening.
That isn't amazing. It's called the Dunning-Kruger effect.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E ... ger_effect
I see this all the time. I liked this quote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')lt;Pahalial> "ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" - Charles Darwin
<kionix> wtf? begets isn't a word. quit trying to make up words, ****face.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'P'), I caught Kub directly contradicting what Short states , go to the Etp thread
I directly contradict Short alot. Short just ignores facts that contradict his model. Even when his followers The oil barrel is half-full.
by AdamB » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 13:28:37
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', ' ')The Rockman truly regrets what the country has gone thru in the last few decades: $trillions of pissed away tax $'s and, most regretable, the waste of thousands of our military lives.
Agreed. It would be nice if others would join in the ongoing transition that this might stop, but people just won't do it. Maybe humans are just naturally built to downplay the risks, and accentuate the benefits, and will keep doing this with fossil fuels forever?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rockman', '
')But it was the result of the greed and foolishness of politicians and a selfish public that consumed fossil fuels with no regard for the rest of the world or the future. But that doesn't mean he shouldn't take advantage of the inevitable.
This is true. Make money off the sheeple while the money making times are good! Like crack dealers invested the money they get from their drug deals wisely, knowing that sooner or later the crackheads will wake up.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rockman', '
') Trading blood for oil was a sin and always will be. Didn't care much for it when I got to witness such asinine "trades" first hand a lifetime ago and still don't care for the f*cking balance sheet. LOL.
Money uber alles! Understand that one perfectly, had a friend who was a predatory mortgage broker.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
by AdamB » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 13:31:38
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'k') - "But let's keep ETP discussion in the ETP thread.". Works for me. That's how I've been able to avoid wasting time discussing the model: I never open the thread.
Same here. Took about a minute to realize the game being played, point out the obvious, and then let others stumble over themselves in their hope for yet another simple scheme to trigger their favorite doom scenario.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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