[aldente]

are you making fun of us, MD ?

[JV153]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aldente', 'a')re you making fun of us, MD ?

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aldente', 'a')re you making fun of us, MD ?

[Revi]

The real peak oil is going to a lot less fun than we imagined. There isn't going to be any heroic back to the land movement, nor is there going to be some way out of it. It's gonna suck!

And it might be here sooner than we think!

[ROCKMAN]

Revi - "The real peak oil is going...". Howdy, buddy, been a while. PSo I'll take this opportunity to bust your balls. LOL. Just repeating a point I've made many times before: the " real peak oil" world is all around you now. One does not have to imagine what a post global PO looks like...you've been experiencing it for years now. Really.

On what ever that relatively unimportant date is reached oil might be $50/bbl or $100/bbl. In fact, even though it may be many years before we have proof we may be at GPO today. Yes, tossing out the POD once again. When you look at all the positives of the dynamic (lots of production, low prices, high oil inventories, growing economies, relatively stable Middle East, little drilling activity etc) and negatives of the dynamics (declining consumption, inventory shortages, embargos, record high oil prices, booming drilling activity, Middle East instability/wars, etc) think back: we've been experiencing the POD at least since the 70's. Yes: we've been deal with all the aspects of the peak oiooiol dynamic for at least the last 4 decades.

What conditions do you envision in the future that we haven't already experienced...perhaps multiple times to varying degrees? Really: give a specific situation we haven't yet experienced.

Not really directed at you so much, Revi. Just the folks that are infatuated with the date of global PO as if it will produce a world radically different then what we've lived thru for the last 40+ years.

[EdwinSm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'J')ust the folks that are infatuated with the date of global PO as if it will produce a world radically different then what we've lived thru for the last 40+ years.

[sparky]

.
There ain't be any panic or light coming from above .
we are talking of a seismic shift , the very ground on which you stand is slipping away
Rockman is right , it's happening everyday since the 1973 Yom kippur war ,
that was the end of the Santa Claus era , plenty ,cheap and all the sky is blue forever

....Oh boy was it a come down
then the warning got wasted because people got used to it and there is always tomorrow
well tomorrow is now , peak oil could be in ten years or yesterday , who care ,!
we live in the age of "what is the oil price this morning"
is it a way to run an economy ?

[ROCKMAN]

Edwin - so true about the panic mode folks will shift to when there's no need. Just like your sugar panic example: in the late 70's when there was the so called "Arab oil embargo". There was no shortage of gasoline production in the US. I still recall one foolish reporter flying offshore looking for tankers circling while waiting for gasoline prices to get higher. Just fueled the panic (pun intended).

The gasoline in the distribution system did disappear overnight. But long after many news stories about companies hoarding fuel the truth came out: all that gasoline " disappeared into the fuel tanks of tens of millions of vehicles. Instead of typically waiting until tanks levels got low folks kept topping off before the reached half full. Thus fuel station inventories disappeared quickly. It took weeks for the refineries to replenish those supplies.

Long after the panic the facts came out. But just like your sugar panic it was too late to make a difference.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he real peak oil is going to a lot less fun than we imagined.

[ralfy]

Some points to consider include the downward trend for discoveries across several decades and a plateau for oil production per capita, and both in light of a global capitalist economy that requires the opposite.

[ROCKMAN]

Ralfy - For Dog's sake stop f*cking up the conversation with relevant facts. You're spoiling the high jinks. (Damn...now there's an old term).

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'S')ome points to consider include the downward trend for discoveries across several decades and a plateau for oil production per capita, and both in light of a global capitalist economy that requires the opposite.

[Revi]

I'm glad my comments got a robust discussion going. I don't think anyone will even care about the peak. Nobody I talk to seems to even know anything about oil at all. It's just there. I think the hardest thing is to convince the fish that they are swimming in water. Nobody cares!

[eugene]

I got in a panic 1970 or so expecting things to happen quickly. (severe PTSD played a role I know now). My anxiety/paranoia drove my family nuts. I don't get in a bind re predictions but it makes sense to me energy will be an increasing issue due to expense, extraction difficulty, etc. I am not one to place my hopes on what I think of as miracle solutions like renewables. Not that I blow them off just don't see them replacing oil. Nor do I place great hopes on usage declines with a global population increase of 1.5 million a week. Much of what I read appears, to me, hopes/dreams of an easy solution with happiness into the infinite future.

The Middle East is not stable nor will it be with us constantly meddling there. And I know, it's not us, it's the other guys with Russia being our favorite villain. And now with instability personified at the controls, the whole world is increasingly unstable.

So my read is we are in a corner with energy, climate change, an ungodly massive military we're just itching to use, increasing unemployment, declining US social support system, a press that is constantly fear mongering, etc, etc. And I simply don't see a way out. Doomer? Yep! Way it is for me.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')'m glad my comments got a robust discussion going. I don't think anyone will even care about the peak.

[Revi]

We are here in the center of things, and we have lots of oil and it's cheap right now. Meanwhile out on the periphery thing are getting bad for a lot of people. Brazil and Venezuela are in a deep recession, the Eurozone is in a funk and even Asia is slowing down a bit. We are going to feel it eventually. I really don't know when it will be, but homeless people are feeling it now.

[Cog]

Venezuela is suffering because they are a failed communist state.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')e are here in the center of things,

[ROCKMAN]

Revi - "...and we have lots of oil and it's cheap right now." Adjusted for inflation the current price of $50/bbl is higher then at any time between 1986 and 2005. And the current price is twice the average price it was between 1946 and 1974. IOW during the last 70 years sold for $50/bll or more during just 22 years. Or about 70% of the time oil sold for less then the current price.

Oil at $50/bbl is CHEAPER then it was a few years ago. But by historic standards it is not CHEAP.

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Infl ... _Chart.asp

Also, "we" don't have lots of oil. Some of us have lots of oil we can afford to buy. But there are also billions on the planet that cannot afford to buy much (if any) oil at $50/bbl.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')Not really directed at you so much, Revi. Just the folks that are infatuated with the date of global PO as if it will produce a world radically different then what we've lived thru for the last 40+ years.