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THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

Unread postby Revi » Mon 06 Feb 2017, 15:45:28

I really don't know. I know we'll have problems on or before 2022.
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Re: THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 07 Feb 2017, 15:44:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') really don't know. I know we'll have problems on or before 2022.


No one really knows, such is the beauty of trying to predict the future. But I know we were supposed to have been running out of oil by the end of the 80's! And then Colin Campbell said we were going to peak instead right around 1990! And then we had Hubbert's peak oil of only 12.5 billion barrels a year to worry about right around 1995! And then Thanksgiving, 2005, that was FINALLY supposed to be peak oil. And then we had peak oil claims in 2006 and 2008, and so now its 2022? Sure...kick the can exercises in this regard have become so established it is expected nowadays. But the REAL questions is, when you play kick the can in 2022, where will the NEXT can kick arrive?

Or will the "problem" be something of even more importance to all of us....like peak demand? Peak demand has certainly arrived in my household, and I think it should arrive in everyone else's as soon as possible.

https://phys.org/news/2017-02-coal-oil-demand-peak.html
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 07 Feb 2017, 16:42:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 's')omething of even more importance to all of us....like peak demand? Peak demand has certainly arrived in my household, and I think it should arrive in everyone else's as soon as possible.

https://phys.org/news/2017-02-coal-oil-demand-peak.html


Peak Demand may have occurred in your house but it is unlikely to occur globally as long as China and now India are modernizing and people are getting richer and auto use and oil use there is rapidly increasing.

Image
Rush hour in New Delhi, India

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Re: THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 08 Feb 2017, 01:11:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 's')omething of even more importance to all of us....like peak demand? Peak demand has certainly arrived in my household, and I think it should arrive in everyone else's as soon as possible.

https://phys.org/news/2017-02-coal-oil-demand-peak.html


Peak Demand may have occurred in your house but it is unlikely to occur globally as long as China and now India are modernizing and people are getting richer and auto use and oil use there is rapidly increasing.

Image
Rush hour in New Delhi, India

Cheers!


The folks thinking about peak demand down the road...include China and India in those calculations. The arguments appear to be that the speed at which the current First World folks reached their peak demand and decreasing energy intensity points, will be far shorter for others. I've seen some wonderful examples of particular technological penetration rates across time, for many countries, and the speed of that change decreased, those who started later moving faster through the S-curve to saturation point.

Arguments along those lines, backed up by those examples of decreases in time from beginning of a technology to a saturation point, carry quite a bit of weight when discussing these issues than others, say linear (or worse, non-linear) extrapolations of a given effect. To make the claims that energy economists do, you need to understand the location on that S-curve, in order to understand the inflection point. Similar to methods to estimate future population growth, S-curves being applicable to that non-linear increase as well.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 09 Feb 2017, 09:48:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 's')omething of even more importance to all of us....like peak demand? Peak demand has certainly arrived in my household, and I think it should arrive in everyone else's as soon as possible.

https://phys.org/news/2017-02-coal-oil-demand-peak.html


Peak Demand may have occurred in your house but it is unlikely to occur globally as long as China and now India are modernizing and people are getting richer and auto use and oil use there is rapidly increasing.

Image
Rush hour in New Delhi, India

Cheers!


The folks thinking about peak demand down the road...include China and India in those calculations. The arguments appear to be that the speed at which the current First World folks reached their peak demand and decreasing energy intensity points, will be far shorter for others. I've seen some wonderful examples of particular technological penetration rates across time, for many countries, and the speed of that change decreased, those who started later moving faster through the S-curve to saturation point.

Arguments along those lines, backed up by those examples of decreases in time from beginning of a technology to a saturation point, carry quite a bit of weight when discussing these issues than others, say linear (or worse, non-linear) extrapolations of a given effect. To make the claims that energy economists do, you need to understand the location on that S-curve, in order to understand the inflection point. Similar to methods to estimate future population growth, S-curves being applicable to that non-linear increase as well.

You have a point Adam. But if you wear a hat it won't show!! :-D
Seriously that last paragraph is eye glazing.
This bit from the first paragraph makes sense,
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The arguments appear to be that the speed at which the current First World folks reached their peak demand and decreasing energy intensity points, will be far shorter for others.
especially when you consider that China"s and India's increase in demand will slam into the downside of the peakoil curve and necessity will become the mother of invention.
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Re: THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 09 Feb 2017, 15:44:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') This bit from the first paragraph makes sense,



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The arguments appear to be that the speed at which the current First World folks reached their peak demand and decreasing energy intensity points, will be far shorter for others.
especially when you consider that China"s and India's increase in demand will slam into the downside of the peakoil curve and necessity will become the mother of invention.[/quote]

Been waiting for the slam into the downside of the peak oil curve since it occurred globally back in 1979, and that didn't seem to matter much. In part because we now know better than to buy into any simplistic model that says only one peak is allowed. Regardless of when the next peak oil arrives, or how quickly the backside of it can be reversed (15 years for the global peak in 1979, maybe 1 or 2 in the US after it occurred 2008), one of the things we have seen proven in reality is that when the price signal hits (the same one that increases supply), people begin to substitute. Mass produced EVs didn't even exist when the past global peak arrived in 2006 or 2008 or whenever, and now they are a full fledged industry and you can't swing a cat in suburbia without hitting Volts or Leafs or Energis. Can't even recognize the Ford Focus EVs, because they look just like the ICE powered kind.

China is already experiencing record growth (Albert Bartlett you were so right..exponential growth is great when it involves a solution rather than a problem!) in this regard:

https://cleantechnica.com/2016/12/22/ch ... -november/

and they don't even need price to cause it like peak oil did here in the US, but environmental concerns. Talk about a win-win. India won't be any different ultimately, and just as the US did techno-development slowly, and the Japanese did it quicker, and the Chinese even quicker, still so shall the Indians figure it out at least as fast.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Mon 22 May 2017, 10:29:04

Industrial civilization is a one-shot affair. There are no second-chances. Once the available nonrenewable resources necessary for it are gone, it will decay and dissapear. It is sad that our greatest scientific achievements will soon be forgotten, and our most cherished momentums will crumble into dust and dissapear, but that is just reality. Just be happy that you are one of the few people (born in the 20th or 21st centuries), that can enjoy things such being able to travel to the other side of the world in less than 24 hours or instantly communicate with people on the other side of the world because these luxuries will soon be gone before the 21st century is over. Our descendants in the 22nd century and beyond will certainly not be able to enjoy virtually all of the luxuries we now have from Industrial Civilization. They will be living like people did in the Middle Ages or Neolithic era.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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Re: THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 22 May 2017, 20:15:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'I')ndustrial civilization is a one-shot affair. There are no second-chances. Once the available nonrenewable resources necessary for it are gone, it will decay and dissapear. It is sad that our greatest scientific achievements will soon be forgotten, and our most cherished momentums will crumble into dust and dissapear, but that is just reality. Just be happy that you are one of the few people (born in the 20th or 21st centuries), that can enjoy things such being able to travel to the other side of the world in less than 24 hours or instantly communicate with people on the other side of the world because these luxuries will soon be gone before the 21st century is over. Our descendants in the 22nd century and beyond will certainly not be able to enjoy virtually all of the luxuries we now have from Industrial Civilization. They will be living like people did in the Middle Ages or Neolithic era.


This is indeed the hope of some. Duncan said about the same thing, but made the mistake of putting a timeframe on it within his lifetime, if only that we may laugh at his claim of the same thing. On a long enough time frame, sure, we're all toast. Literally. The Sun will see to that. That nails down the range of when this doom will occur. Duncan having gotten it wrong at the low end, the Sun guarenteeing it at the high end, I'm betting...maybe...it will happen somewhere in between. The maybe needed because we can no more claim knowing this about the future any more than those who declared that heavier that air flight could not be achieved, so it sees prudent that we don't forget that the Hawkins of the world have this habit of changing what the future looks like, from the present.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

Unread postby aldente » Fri 26 May 2017, 22:42:12

a "one shot affair" only in context of "exclusion".

Exclusion of what??

A runaway civilisation of course, or at least the attempt "to run away".

Personally, this is the crux of our time - either stick with the program and keep believing in oil - or check out and start your own scheme - a la Bill Gates et al back in the day as well as his most recent "future visionary clone" Mark Zuckerberg.

Question one: how come, both Mr. Gates as well as his clone never develop in masculine matters, meaning - why do they look so immature?
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Re: THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 27 May 2017, 08:57:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'I')ndustrial civilization is a one-shot affair. There are no second-chances. Once the available nonrenewable resources necessary for it are gone, it will decay and dissapear. It is sad that our greatest scientific achievements will soon be forgotten, and our most cherished momentums will crumble into dust and dissapear, but that is just reality.


I have to disagree with the notion that the end of oil will result in the end of the worlds accumulated knowledge. It is stored and distributed in a variety of ways, none of which require much energy.
While individual countries may fall into chaos during resource wars much like the breakup of the former Yugoslavia and Syria today the population does not have it's collective memory wiped as clean as Hillary's Email server nor will they burn all the books and flash drives.
The one thing I do think we will have to learn to do without is space based communication and navigation systems which we might not be able to maintain in an energy constricted future. Get out your sextant and chronometer and your navel navigation tables manual. :)
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Re: THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 27 May 2017, 12:31:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'I')ndustrial civilization is a one-shot affair. There are no second-chances. Once the available nonrenewable resources necessary for it are gone, it will decay and dissapear. It is sad that our greatest scientific achievements will soon be forgotten, and our most cherished momentums will crumble into dust and dissapear, but that is just reality. Just be happy that you are one of the few people (born in the 20th or 21st centuries), that can enjoy things such being able to travel to the other side of the world in less than 24 hours or instantly communicate with people on the other side of the world because these luxuries will soon be gone before the 21st century is over. Our descendants in the 22nd century and beyond will certainly not be able to enjoy virtually all of the luxuries we now have from Industrial Civilization. They will be living like people did in the Middle Ages or Neolithic era.



People have been making that claim around year after year in this place and others websites as well.
Thankefully there is nothing to support it. Sure fossil fuels are a one time deal because they take so long to accumulate. But profligate fossil fuel burning is not the only way to have a civilization that functions at a high level.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

Unread postby Revi » Mon 05 Jun 2017, 14:49:12

Here's an article that was just posted in which the olduvai graphic was used.

http://peakoil.com/consumption/collapse-has-arrived

I think we are going to see the outliers experience it first, followed sooner or later by us.
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Re: THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

Unread postby Cog » Mon 05 Jun 2017, 15:01:36

Doom is always 10 years out or 5 years out or some other magical number. Then when it doesn't arrive, its the government pumping up the economy so it didn't happen as we predicted. Or it was some other factor. Then a new prediction, with yet another date. Waste of time really.
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Re: THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 05 Jun 2017, 18:58:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')ere's an article that was just posted in which the olduvai graphic was used.

http://peakoil.com/consumption/collapse-has-arrived

I think we are going to see the outliers experience it first, followed sooner or later by us.


The article is a crock. It's author has said he does this stuff for entertainment, owns like 4 or 5 motor vehicles and recently acquired a 5th or 6th, and claims to be disabled and collects benefits for it, while riding around town on electric scooters, is capable of spending a day standing around in the hot sun demonstrating how to ride electric scooters he is attempting to create a business to sell, and throws $10G parties for friends in other states and all to get a multi-level marketing scheme off the ground for...wait for it...a theme park!

What does the scheme need? Collapse advertising. And you fell for it, just another victim of faux news. And for the record, I've met this whiner in person, at the time he was attempting to talk poor country folk into these $10G buyins and guess who gets to control the money after they donate? A little clue...not the person who donated!
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