$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'C')orrect: that doesn't change what was going on in 1950. It also doesn't change the fact that: "The US was NOT the "Saudi Arabia" of the World for the first ~90 years of oil history." Which was the point I responded to. Like I said: was surprised Russia was the Big Dog after US production in PA fell off and before Texas kicked in. Had thought Russia didn't become a player until the 50's.
More political drama overriding geology: Doing some fact checking I discovered how the Brits dominated Iranian oil production prior to 1950. Couldn't find a credible numbed but a lot of oil produced. But then came political unrest and around 1952 Iranian oil production = ZERO. But once the Iranian govt took over: Iran's PO of 6 million bopd in 1973. But not for long: 1981 = 1.2 mm bopd. Didn't get back to 4 mm bopd until 2005.
PeakOil is You
What If East Texas 1911?
Re: What If East Texas 1911?
by KilonBerlin » Mon 16 Jan 2017, 15:45:52
Yes 1950 is a year, true... but for example, in 1861 until 1899 (I think first real commercial drilling and selling the drilled oil took place in 1861? While in 1859 I think in today Poland there was something with oil I can remember, but they did not really use it or had the infrastructure... I know Poland from the 1990's and 2000's with a "okay" speaking polish... in 1859 there was much in Poland, but no large market for expensive oil from whales, where the brain (
) delivered the best lightning oil...Around 1900 as far as I know in large amounts there was only:
- USA
- Baku (Nobel brothers, which everyone knows from the Nobel Prize, I think they were from the same "Nobel"-Family and made a fortune in Baku oil which was so extreme available there, that the oil workers in extreme low depth operations where standing in a mix of over 50% oil and less than 50% water and they were completely "black" after a 10 or 12 hour working period...
- I think first founds in Romania and Indochina were made... but for example in Venezuela in Maracaibo Basin it was during WW1 when the first oil was found, Romania found its first oil somewhere between 1901 and 1914 in smaller amounts, the Ploesti Basin was later found to be larger than thought first.
In Baku the oil production was not always steady, especially after WW1, the Red and the White Army were fighting for post-revolution Russia. As we know the White Army was defeated by the Red Army ("Bolsheviks"?), but not before I think 1922 or even early 1923... In the Caucasus, the Azerbaijan area was the last major battle between White and Red since the White had the production but limited or none export ways, but it was "missing" for Stalin, finally the Red Army took Baku, repaired all the damage and it produced but never soo much like the US oil boom (I think alone between 1861 and 1939 there were over 1,000 fields, no matter if very small or very large were found in the 48 States + DC (Alaska and Hawaii came 1959 I think and 49. and 50. State?!)
The Shah of Persia sold the concession to Knox D'Arcy in 1901 for 40,000 pounds oO What did he do with this? Luxury trips including shopping to Europe (In 1908 D'Arcy lost almost all of his cash), he and some other investors really pushed much money into this, after years of over 50° Celsius in the Shadow on very hot days, the money of Knox and the other investors was almost gone and the other financier also said: Return to London, the special chosen and well paid (until this very last months) prospector was a men from Scotland I think. In 1908 in the early morning the crew and some nomans near "Masjed Soleyman" were woken by a sound (I guess it must have been a strong pressure on it) which was like an explosion, it was a large oil fountain which for at least 2 weeks or so I think was uncontrolled "giving" oil... this is "luck" or whatever, would he have heard to London than these 1908 found would not have been done and everything in the area would have delayed maybe by years or other a decade or even 2 decades or more...
After this the English Imperium bought a large stake on advise of experts and for example Churchill who was seeing the German Navy threat, since there was a arms race in the Navy of Germany and the British. The Russian were fighting for Korea and Mandchuria, Japanese was rising and won first battles, the Zar than did send a fleet of different ships, only a few could pass the Sues Canal, the most had to start in Sankt Petersburg (I think the capital back than?!) and had a 32,000 kilometer (!) way, after this long way with many stops to refill coal and supply, they reached the area but Japanese Navy was already waiting (I mean they had enough time^^), they defeated the respected Russian Navy in 1911 to the surprise of all other major powers... Russia did not only lose Korea because of that defeat, the whole Manchuria, together with almost the whole Korean peninsula the Russian forces there claimed it for Russia, was taken by the Japanese too. The Russian Navy for the 3 years later starting World War 1 was almost defeated, only 3 out of 32 ships made it to Vladivostok (damaged maybe, but engines were still working...),
I think the Russian Navy did not recover from this "trap" and the lose of 32 of their best ships from the Baltic Sea Force and some from the Black Sea Navy, The japanese very high caliber guns made the "important" difference, that is the reason why later Nazis, US, British, Australian etc. was building cannons over 30cm! Some, especially Japanese again, even over 40cm or over 400mm..... this was the last act of "coal fired navy fights", 1912 after a never seen before act of laying a pipeline through the terrain with many mountains, cold weather to Abadan.
Abadan was in 1912 when it was opened by the British the largest oil refinery in the world! The oil tanks in Abadan could hold such large amounts, we are too, but in 1912 tanks with some hundred million liters were impressive....it was the end of coal in direct war equipment, only the coal-fired locomotives would stay, but even the extreme large improvements of diesel-electric fired locs as well as the trucks of the late 30's which could carry already a few tons, much more than horse, much faster, and a lot more stuff. Germany had no chance, even if they would have had more ships than the Empire... the "Dreadnoughts" were (Churchill was something like a chef of a British Navy institute back than?!) the end of coal fired ships with their black smoke even in not soo clear weather dark black smoke was seen, Germany with or without oil had no chance, but the Oil was really soo important.
Now I fear what happens... The Saudis which had such a big Deal for now 72 years (1945... 55 + 17 = 72), and in the last 8 years the Saudis stopped to do what is "good" for the US. They even "attack" the more expensive Shale Oil Production in the US which almost lead to a new peak in 2014, I'm sure the 1970 can be beaten if we see massive oil price increase in 2018 or so...... However Iraq is not really cuting, I understand them and Libya, they have a war and Oil is the only real source of cash.......
The IEA "shocked" (online press quote) by saying last week that the Global Peak Oil DEMAND (!) could be as soon as 2020..........
Germany lost 2 wars because of overwhelming US ressources in the right time, and because of oil shortage... Lets see what the OPEC and its supporters like Russia, Kazakhstan, Oman, Egypt,
Operation Desert Storm and Shield showed how important it is, and every serious Army in the world got enough oil-based fuel for 3 months, most got 6 months or more. without any renewables, like Ethanol or other Oils converted into Fuel
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Re: What If East Texas 1911?
by ROCKMAN » Mon 16 Jan 2017, 16:00:14
K - interesting tidbits...thanks. Of course most are just interested in the current oil production dynamic. But I find those old stories worth digging into especially when it highlights the political/cultural aspects that do have parallels to modern events.
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