[Zarquon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')I happen to be the inventor of, and chief advocate of, the new sine wave of oil production prototyped by the US over the past decade or so. Yo-yoing indeed, methinks the bell shaped curve needs MAJOR revision, in lieu of what Rockman and his fellow industry folks have demonstrated for the world to see.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')nd actually go back far enough and there should be a third peak from the PA boom in the late 1800's. I've seen a number of estimates but not sure of the credibility with the lack of records.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
the peaks rise are dependent on a new economic reality bringing new extraction in play .
what come after fracking and shale ?
....moonshine ?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')dam - And actually go back far enough and there should be a third peak from the PA boom in the late 1800's. I've seen a number of estimates but not sure of the credibility with the lack of records.

[ralfy]

That's what happens when one imagines that the U.S. = the world.

[sparky]

.
@ AdamB big thanks for the links , I started chewing through it , big meal !

@ Rockman , I quite like the sinusoidal or "many camel humps" model ,
I think the Hubbert curve is a bit simplistic but probably a good overall image of the crude oil extraction

as for calling gooey rubbish "oil" , I'm just having some revulsion there .
That's ain't oil ....no sir !
maybe we could call it "refined products precursors" or carbon resources ,
after all where is the boundary between coal and tar sand , viscosity ?
why does it matter if diesel come out from the tap anyway

[ROCKMAN]

Adam - Actually when you get down to the nut cutting Hubbert's model was for the most part based on Texas production and not that of the entire country:

https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi ... o_2005.png

And not really the entire state but just two regions: the Gulf Coast Basin and the Permian Basin (including that portion in New Mexico.:

http://www.utpb.edu/ceed/energy-resourc ... d-reserves

Which explains why his model doesn't include the shale plays or the offshore trends including the Deep Water. And while the Eagle Ford Shale might be in the Gulf Coast Basin his data base actually included only the fields developed in the Tertiary sandstone fields.

Other peaks: the great Spindletop discovery - 1902. The great East Texas Oil Field - late 30's/early 40's.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')hat's what happens when one imagines that the U.S. = the world.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')dam - Actually when you get down to the nut cutting Hubbert's model was for the most part based on Texas production and not that of the entire country:

https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi ... o_2005.png

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')

why does it matter if diesel come out from the tap anyway

[sparky]

.
Let's talk about crude+condensates ( and I have my doubts about "condensates" )
it seems that any extraction of a finite resource will lead to a depletion of the deposits

While it's possible to synthetize hydrocarbon products from pretty much any suitable source ,
including CO2 and water ,that's not really what we are talking about ,

I take Hubbert curve as an hypothesis ,
global crude oil production will reach a maximum , then decrease .
it's not holly writ or dogma , the way he came about his curve are important only to prove/disprove its basic idea

[ROCKMAN]

Sparky - "Let's talk about crude+condensates ( and I have my doubts about "condensates" ) it seems that any extraction of a finite resource will lead to a depletion of the deposits."

Way past time to still be confused, buddy. Condensate is OIL. It may be lighter gravity then some OILS but it is still OIL. We don't have a special name for low gravity OIL...we still call it oil. "Condensate" does not describe the character of the liquid hydrocarbon, its gravity or its composition. An "oil" might have a lighter gravity then a "condensate". The condensate tag is based on the physical state of the liquid hydrocarbon IN THE RESERVOIR. I can show you a bbl of liquid hydrocarbon with a 40° API gravity and you would be unable to tag it as oil or condensate. You would have to know its physical state of that hydrocarbon in the reservoir: is it in a liquid phase or dissolved in the gaseous phase?

As explained many times: when you look at Texas production you can find two categories: oil and condensate. And that distinction is based solely on the physical phase as it exists in the reservoir. Which is why a particular well's production could be classified as condensate for the first few years of its life but then in the later years when the reservoir pressure declines so much that the oil CONDENSES from the gaseous phase to a liquid phase while still in the reservoir. Then when that liquid is produced it is classified as oil by the TRRC. And that LEGAL distinction is a very critical aspect determining how a field is produced. And the calculation is a rather involved engineering exercise. The company does not get to choose the classification...the state does.

It also explains why you offen see numbers tagged as "C+C": because once the liquid hydrocarbon leaves the lease one cannot distinguish CRUDE from CONDENSATE. Of course one can still catergorize any liquid hydrocarbon by its API gravity. Or use general tags like " light", "medium" or "heavy". And those distinctions become unimportant when you get to the refining stage since virtually all liquid hydrocarbons cracked are "oil blends" typically in a very narrow range: 31° to 33° API.

And lastly you can just go with the EIA definition: Condensate (lease condensate): Light liquid hydrocarbons recovered from lease separators or field facilities at associated and non-associated natural gas wells. Mostly pentanes and heavier hydrocarbons. Normally enters the crude oil stream after production.

IOW a LIQUID hydrocarbon commonly referred to as oil.

BTW US refineries really like blending the condensate oil with heavy oils because the condensates tend to have much more gasoline chains in them.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
Let's talk about crude+condensates ( and I have my doubts about "condensates" )
it seems that any extraction of a finite resource will lead to a depletion of the deposits

While it's possible to synthetize hydrocarbon products from pretty much any suitable source ,
including CO2 and water ,that's not really what we are talking about ,

I take Hubbert curve as an hypothesis ,
global crude oil production will reach a maximum , then decrease .
it's not holly writ or dogma , the way he came about his curve are important only to prove/disprove its basic idea

[sparky]

.
@ Rockman , thanks for the condensate highlight , the shift of the classification when the reservoir pressure decrease is quite telling

@ AdamB , I've been struggling with the basics of this site
are we talking of the peak extraction of a natural resource or the input /output of the hydrocarbon industry

in the first case , are we sticking to a narrow "conventional "
or do we include some pretty much solid deposits being reworked , I would include them , some might not

IF we only consider any input , coal to liquid , gas to liquid , that OK but it stretch the Peak Oil toward the "anything go"
as long as diesel come out somehow

I believe that whatever standard we use , the output of products cannot grow forever ,
a different definition shift the timeline , but it will still follows a curve ,
though maybe not a nice ,smooth, symetrical one , those hardly exist outside a theoretician mind
doesn't means it is incorrect , beside the bumps

[ROCKMAN]

Sparky - "I believe that whatever standard we use , the output of products cannot grow forever". Which is why I occasionally try to shift the conversation from PO to PHP...Peak Hydrocarbon Product. We've discussed it befors: the consumers don't consume oil...the consume gasoline, diesel, etc. How those commodities are created are unimportant to the people: all they care about is price and availability.

BTW the decreasing reservoir pressure aspect is so common we actually have a name for it: retrograde condensate reservoir. And it's not something new: 50+ years ago millions of bbls of light oils have been produced from conventional retrograde condensate reservoirs. Why the TRRC had to come up with that classification system in the first place.

I'll explain later why it was the basis for a very critical financial aspect.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
@ AdamB , I've been struggling with the basics of this site
are we talking of the peak extraction of a natural resource or the input /output of the hydrocarbon industry

[sparky]

.
My personal definition is
"a fossil deposit , liquid at normal pressure and temperature which float on water and will sustain combustion "

It's not very original but it just work for me ,

As for the Climate change things , most of those posters have no interest in the crude oil extraction ,
there is the porn-doomers hankering for the day the zombies will roam the streets
and the greens bigots , both are largely ignorant and cut paste from doggy sites ,
both have latched on this site because it give them a shouting platform.
their thread are to communication what my lonely teenage nights were to entertainment
they are akin to some parasite infestation , feeding off the host
more worrying they have chased away some pretty reasonable and less confrontational posters with their invectives

[ralfy]

Or we might be looking at multiple crises (including peak oil and global warming) amplifying each other and leading to a "perfect storm."

[sparky]

.
@ Ralfie , most certainly , a broad mind bring a lot of wrinkles , my biggest concern is world food production .
It tie plenty of other issues together .
however , this is an oil peak site , trying somehow to stay on the topic , even in a peripheral way , is proper .

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
My personal definition is
"a fossil deposit , liquid at normal pressure and temperature which float on water and will sustain combustion "

It's not very original but it just work for me ,