[sparky]

.
As the world production relentlessly rise and reach 97millions barrels a day ,
is the "magic" number of 100 Mb/d around the corner ?

Many people discuss the timing of a peak , I would rather talk about the level of production reached .


The case for YES is pretty straightforward ,
the world supply/demand has been steadily increasing with population and social progress across all countries
goaded by the prospect of financial rewards and using a lot of money , a dedicated bunch of professional are looking to increase the production , as they have done for more than a century , opening up new provinces and resource base

The case for NO is a bit more tricky ,
the number of big discoveries is now a paltry thing ,while the rise in demand make depletion increasingly severe.
the production curve while still on the up is showing some slowing down ,
unless some "super giants" are found , crude oil production might well reach a plateau ,
the tar sands , extra heavies and tight oil sources have some in-build limits to their scaling up

I will personally observe with some trepidation the production figure ,

are we climbing to the last stage of the plateau ?

[ralfy]

I recall one feature in 2006 where it was reported that oil consumption would be 115 Mb/d by 2016.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
As the world production relentlessly rise and reach 97millions barrels a day ,
is the "magic" number of 100 Mb/d around the corner ?

[copious.abundance]

Yup. Another trip down Memory Lane.

World Oil Production Peaked in 2008

[Cog]

There is no need for $70/bbl oil when there is plenty of $50/bbl oil for sale. You ETP'ers just don't get supply/demand.

[ROCKMAN]

Cog - Save your breath, buddy. They done drunk too much Kool-Aid already. LOL.

[Cog]

Tomorrow's $50 oil will come from the same place as yesterday's $50 oil. Did you mean literally tomorrow or some time in the distant future?


Im a little confused here. Are you saying the world can not afford $80 oil? Because I seem to remember putting gasoline in my truck at that price and even higher for extended periods of time.

[Subjectivist]

I don't think we will get to 100 but I could be wrong. The one thing I am certain of is the volume of oil produced in any one day since the dawn of the oil industry has been depended on how many buyers are in the market and how much they are willing to pay.

If Uncle Sam went even crazier and promised to subsidize American oil producers by 100 percent so we could be energy independent ASAP then you would see all sorts of drilling and fracking and oild sand development and heck probable kerogen rich shales being cooked to get the oil out. We could make America energy independent, but the costs would be huge! Why develop $250/bbl oil in America when we can still import cheap Saudi oil for $55/bbl or even $100/bbl?

So yes, the world could produce 100 MM/bbl/d of oil, but at what price to the end user?

[Serial_Worrier]

I predict 120mbd by 2020 with no end in sight. Endless amounts of that light sweet crude bubbling up from Mother Nature to fuel a billion vehicles!

[ROCKMAN]

Wow! Now we have another relatively unimportant number to go along with the date of global PO...how much oil the world is producing on that date. LOL.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', '
')So yes, the world could produce 100 MM/bbl/d of oil, but at what price to the end user?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', '
')So yes, the world could produce 100 MM/bbl/d of oil, but at what price to the end user?

[ralfy]

The problem is not oil price but oil production cost. That's where one sees the effects of peak oil.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... to-survive

[ROCKMAN]

"I don't see how ANYONE can credibly claim it just now" Of course no one can claim global PO now. OTOH no one can ever reasonably claim GPO is happening WHEN IT'S HAPPENING. Look how close we came to a new US PO many decades after everyone KNEW we had reached PO.

Back to the point I've made many times before: many years down the road when we feel comfortable we had reached GPO many decades early it might be 100 mm bopd. Or 120 mm bopd. Or 140 mm bopd. And at that time oil was selling for $50/bbl. Or $120/bbl. Or $27/bbl. And the rig count might be 4,500 at that point in time. Or 350. The world might be relative calm and skimming by OK. Or maybe a crushing global depression may be unfolding.

So giving we don't really have any f*cking way to predict what life will be like when we reach GPO doesn't it really matter when it happens or what that max production might be?

[MD]

it doesn't matter. pushing limits forward is what we do, until we can't. It will be evident in hindsight, until then? rock on.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', '
')So yes, the world could produce 100 MM/bbl/d of oil, but at what price to the end user?

[sparky]

.
the peaks rise are dependent on a new economic reality bringing new extraction in play .
what come after fracking and shale ?
....moonshine ?

[ROCKMAN]

Adam - And actually go back far enough and there should be a third peak from the PA boom in the late 1800's. I've seen a number of estimates but not sure of the credibility with the lack of records.