by Outcast_Searcher » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 17:30:57
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')n average Brent price of about $150 to $180 for 2016 to 2019 inclusive.
Well, we're at the end of 2016, 2017-9 are still to come, 180USD for Brent is still a real possibility at the end of 2019 if quotas are held and the economy booms well enough to cause a supply shortfall in 2018, the average price being up there looks quite unlikely now.
Dolan, respectfully, I don't understand this possibility being realistic, at all.
1). Even if the US economy becomes VERY strong (which is very much in doubt), that doesn't mean the global economy will follow suit.
2). If events transpire to bring the global oil price much above $70 for any length of time, the consensus of informed commentators seems to be that the US oil fracking industry will ramp up. A price over, say, $100 would cause it to ramp up a LOT (moderating prices again).
3). Even if the global economy grows moderately, as much as short term doomers hate to admit it, efficiency gains will continue. This will continue to have a significant downward impact on the total number of gallons of gasoline, diesel, etc. burned.
So while I agree that for the balance of the decade, I'd expect global oil prices to trend upward, and at least average higher than they are currently, that's a HUGE difference than having Brent end much higher than oil was at the 2008 peak.
Barring something big geopolitically (like a major attack on Iran resulting in nuclear strikes or closing the Persian Gulf, which seems more likely with someone as volatile as Trump at the helm, IMO), I just don't see oil staying over $100ish very long from ANY realistic global economic demand.
....
And as always, I could easily be wrong. Care to share how strong a global growth number you think it would take to sustain Brent prices over, say, $150, for a meaningful amount of time? (I LIKE sharing "The Wisdom of Crowds"! I think it's the best overall benefit of this site.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.