[jeromie]

I think a great deal of gas production will result from shale gas, tight sands and coal bed methane. Around 40 % of current US gas production is from these sources. The near term problem will be gluts that simply put off much of the gas production until GTL production is put in place.

I suspect gas will be second fiddle to oil itself unless demand increases. Just as an example, a lot of investments are being put into Bakken Formation oil. With a lot of success under the difficulties of tight shale production. However, just beneath Bakken might be the real bonanza. That is the Three Forks- Sanish Formation .
There is talk of a second Bakken of much easier to produce oil. Three Forks- Sanish will become a major producer.

Both taken together look like a double shot at production for any given well.

My view is, when necessity compels it, the US will produce what ever it has available.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jeromie', '
') As to unconventional gas, obviously only the " Sweet Spots" will be produced first. That alone would provide generations of gas. I speak here again of North America. Certainly other nations will do the same.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('traderm', 'h')ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP6DhKGDzek

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1t4ue-W ... re=channel

Two very interesting youtube videos on Saudi's reserve.

[Newfie]

It's truly amazinging. To me it seems so logical that webs e finite resources. I recall considering this as far back as high school in the 60's.

How stupid can people be?

Never mind!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')I just rewatched these two videos from 2007 and find myself somewhat amused. Even nine years ago the MSM was pushing the idea that the oil age was over not because oil was near peak, but because people were conserving oil and driving less.

In Reality,
in 2007 the world was consuming 86.22 million/bbl/d
in 2015 the world was consuming 93.88 MM/bbl/d

Yet here again in fourth quarter 2016 certain sources are still pushing the idea that world oil demand is in terminal decline and within a few years the oil producers will all be destitute.

[ROCKMAN]

T - "Why is it that folks who knew, in advance, that peak oil would turn into such a bust...aren't held up as fine examples of critical thinking and strength of character...". Perhaps because of "us" (the oil patch) not wanting the sheeple to truely understand the dynamics until "we" had sheared our fair share of the wool.

Much easier to point out the flaws of the plan AFTER those stock options get cashed in. And for those of us that weren't on board that gravy train we had to suffer being tagged "doomers". I still occasionally cry myself to sleep over those bad memories. (Do I even have to add an LOL?)

And thanks for the " critical thinking" but it didn't take much thinking to remember the 80's bust when the Rockman was driving a Yellow Cab at 3 am in Houston. Same ole sh*t...just a different decade. LOL.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy is it that folks who knew, in advance, that peak oil would turn into such a bust (which also includes Spike I believe), aren't held up as fine examples of critical thinking and strength of character, to resist the poorly considered and now proven wrong ideas of the advocates?

[ROCKMAN]

"In any event it was the shale impact that has largely changed the view of peak...". Hopefully at a minimum more folks understand the relatively unimportance of the date of global PO. And additionally realize that on that date oil might be selling for $100/bbl or $30/bbl.

IOW moving further away from the bumper stick mentality of such a complex dynamic.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '&')quot;In any event it was the shale impact that has largely changed the view of peak...". Hopefully at a minimum more folks understand the relatively unimportance of the date of global PO.

[Tanada]

Michael Lynch weighs in on the oil drivers with the incoming Trump Administration.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��The market is the elephant in the room,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, an industry consulting firm. “All this other talk about access to public lands and such for oil and gas, it’s a pretty minor issue.”

Although the Obama administration is often criticized by the fossil fuel industry, it presided over a boom that saw domestic oil and gas production soar.

The administration allowed a broad and controversial expansion of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which infuriated many conservation groups while it transformed parts of North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas and the Rockies into meccas for energy workers, and the United States became a powerful new global energy player.

“For a Democrat, he’s really been pro-oil,” Lynch said of Obama. “He’s been a lot nicer to oil than some Republicans.”

But the boom helped deflate itself by driving up supply and driving down prices for oil and gas. Around the same time, the administration began paying more attention to climate change — limiting emissions from power plants and methane from oil and gas production, removing certain public lands from energy development and rejecting or withholding decisions on projects such as the Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines.

Those efforts, which intensified in 2015 before the Paris climate talks, came to define the Obama administration in the minds of many in the industry.

Federal approval processes do take longer than state processes, which the energy industry often cites as sufficient. But complaints over regulatory delays have persisted for decades, through Democratic and Republican administrations.

“Twenty years ago, someone said, ‘The best day of your career is when you get a lease on federal lands and the worst day in your career is when you get a lease on federal lands,’ because it’s such a pain,” said Lynch, who favors a faster federal process.

Sarp Ozkan, a manager of drilling analytics for Drillinginfo.com, said with benchmark oil prices currently well below $60 per barrel, companies are inclined to focus on known sources such as the Permian Basin of West Texas rather than explore public lands.

But Ozkan did say Trump could make a difference. Should he approve a project such as the Dakota Access pipeline, for example, that could make drilling in western North Dakota more profitable at lower prices because transporting oil by pipeline is cheaper than by rail.

“You’re going to be focusing on what makes you the most money, what gets you the quickest return on your capital,” Ozkan said of industry.

This month, the global energy company BP announced plans to open an office in Denver. At first glance, the move might seem like evidence of the exuberance Sgamma described.

In announcing the move, BP, which will transfer 200 people from Houston to a new building in the city’s trendy Lower Highlands area in early 2018, said the decision was driven by its desire “to be closer to its substantial asset position in the Rocky Mountain region and an important energy hub of the future.”

But the company says that future took shape long before Trump stunned the world with his victory in November, that the move was motivated by the changing energy market not a changing administration and that it reflects a broader awareness that dependence on fossil fuels will decline as the world fights climate change.

“There’s an abundance of natural gas in the Rockies,” David Lawler, chief executive of BP’s Lower 48 division, said in an interview. “As a company, our strategy is to grow more toward gas. We see it as an environmentally friendly bridge fuel to the future as renewables become more important. It has a lower carbon footprint, and that’s part of our strategy as we go forward.”

Lawler, who grew up in Denver and graduated from the Colorado School of Mines, said BP was optimistic about the Trump administration but uncertain of what might change.

“We worked well with the Obama administration, and we look forward to working with the Trump administration, as well,” he said. “We don’t really see a red wellhead or a blue wellhead. We think it’s energy that’s vital to America and we want to provide that energy to America and do it in a way that protects the environment.”

[Subjectivist]

Eight years of being ignored has not stopped him from making a pretty good living. He might be wrong in all the details but clearly he knows how to sell his opinions to people with money, including those in government.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'E')ight years of being ignored has not stopped him from making a pretty good living. He might be wrong in all the details but clearly he knows how to sell his opinions to people with money, including those in government.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'E')ight years of being ignored has not stopped him from making a pretty good living. He might be wrong in all the details but clearly he knows how to sell his opinions to people with money, including those in government.

[Subjectivist]

WHo would you say he is most like Pstarr? Not a world leader, I mean like analyst wise. I see him askind of the anti-CHris Skrebowski.

[Cog]

The good thing about the ETP doomers is they are predicting doom right away, instead of the usual ten years down the road doom. This gives us ample opportunity to point out their flawed predictions within a natural life span.