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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Rate your doomerosity

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

I believe Peak Oil will probably be...

0) ... revealed as a myth or conspiracy / alternatively "peak what?"
1
No votes
1) ... passed as a virtual non-event, and won't create any real turmoil
3
No votes
2) ... difficult, but manageable, many people will hurt, but society itself continues
24
No votes
3) ... an economic catastrophe, but society will largely recover within a decade or two
35
No votes
4) ... a global calamity, but most of us will survive somehow and eventually learn to adjust
56
No votes
5) ... the cause of massive human dieoff, society as we know it will not exist within decades
72
No votes
6) ... the end of everything, welcome to the stone age
6
No votes
 
Total votes : 197

Unread postby EddieB » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 18:31:25

I voted 4 because I slide between 3.5 and 4.5 depending on my mood. Sometimes I think we'll make it through no problem, other times I think a bit of dying off will occur... I don't think the die-off will necessarily suck as terribly as many on this site imagine it will. Some european nations and Russia have been going through a "die-off" for a number of years now and they seem alright to me. If it's slow it won't be all that bad.
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Unread postby LadyRuby » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 18:33:18

I'd like to know who voted for number 6!! The doomiest of the doomers!!
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Unread postby MD » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 18:33:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DriveElectric', 'W')hich level of doomerosity means that we will at least still have beer?

Have no fear! There will always be Beer!
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Unread postby bruin » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 18:45:55

Easy 4. It's going to be a tremendous change but there isn't going to be a huge die off. The key word here is we will "adjust".

Certainly, I could see the population growth reversing slowly, which in itself would be a big change. Keep in mind, the birth rates are already very low in many developed countries and the bulk of our population is already starting to retire.
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Unread postby TheTurtle » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 18:49:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', '
')Compare PO with the great depression...then look at demographics:
- more than double the world population since TGD.


World population has doubled since only 1960. It has more than TRIPLED since TGD. And it has increased fivefold since oil was first discovered. But your point is well taken, Ron.

I vote 5 because I think PO is just one of many paradigm shocks facing the culture of death that has held sway as the dominant culture for the past 10 millennia.

Overpopulation, environmental degradation, climate change, pandemic disease and economic collapse are all vying with PO to bring us crashing back from overshoot to balance.

PO might be the trigger or it might just be one more symptom among many. But IMO within the next decade, die-off will happen.
“Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.” (Ted Perry)
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Unread postby OldSprocket » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 18:50:23

I voted 3 with the understanding that the problems will develop a few years after "peak". We could easily hit 4 by simply not changing.
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Unread postby sjn » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 19:04:50

Definitely a 5. I think we can learn to live sustainably, but not until we've addressed the overshoot problem - and to that there's only one solution. Die-off. As a species we must learn how to work with nature, as part of nature. Once we've done this we'll be able to make real achievements. One day perhaps even solar colonisation. Until then we have many lessons to learn.
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Unread postby TheTurtle » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 19:07:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', ' ')Once we've done this we'll be able to make real achievements. One day perhaps even solar colonisation.


Wouldn't that be awfully hot? :-D
“Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.” (Ted Perry)
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Unread postby lateStarter » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 19:10:19

Could you add an 'other' category/choice? I am in the 4-5 camp, but I have reason to believe that long term, we (meaning people - not nations) will be ok...
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Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 19:18:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('k_semler', 'c')ampaign of filling up dollar bill borders with sites containing PO information, (written in the white borders on front and back),
:lol: GET THE WORD OUT. WRITE IT ON EVERY BILL YOU HAVE! Thats the funniest thing I've seen since BiGG posted the MOON DOOMED! link. :lol: :lol: I just cast the other 6. If you're gonna go Doomer, you may as well do it right! Why? If we're headed for 5, then there's no way to stop there. Energy's gone, metals are gone. Farmlands are sterile. Climate's screwed up. Nope, no way we stop at 5, were goin' all the way to 6.
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Unread postby Eli » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 19:19:35

Here is why I am doomer fiver

China ready to use nukes over Taiwan

PO or no PO things are sketchy.
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Unread postby alpha480v » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 20:20:37

I voted 3,but am leaning towards 4.
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Unread postby TheTurtle » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 21:27:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'H')ere is why I am doomer fiver

China ready to use nukes over Taiwan

PO or no PO things are sketchy.


Not going to happen ...

1) As I wrote in another thread, Zhu has been making these same nuke threats for a long, long while now.
2) As I've written in a couple of other threads, China will implode within the next two years, IMO.
3) If by some slim chance 2 doesn't happen, China is so concerned about saving face for the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, that they will let a lot slide between now and then ... a lot. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Taiwan uses the knowledge that Beijing does not want to lose face with the international community and seizes this opportunity to expand their independence.

There are lots of good reasons to be a "doomer five", I just don't think nuclear war with China should be at the top of the list.
“Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.” (Ted Perry)
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Unread postby Eli » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 21:46:02

good point Aaron.

Yeah China imploding is a real possibility, that will be ugly though.
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Unread postby Jack » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 21:59:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheTurtle', '2')) As I've written in a couple of other threads, China will implode within the next two years, IMO.


I'd very much like to read your thoughts on the matter. Might it be possible to get a link?
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Unread postby TheTurtle » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 22:43:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'g')ood point Aaron.


I'm not Aaron. I just like his quote. :)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')eah China imploding is a real possibility, that will be ugly though.

Yes. It will be very ugly.
49 million multi-millionare members of the CPC vs. 1.2 billion disenfranchised peasants. 8O

Each and every day now, there are multiple instances of civil unrest throughout China, where tens of thousands of peasants rise up against the police. China has struggled to keep this out of foreign press for a good while (thank goodness for Hong Kong newspapers) but now the CPC is starting to admit publicly that it has become a problem.

Chinese social unrest a growing problem

It will only get worse. Hence my prediction that China will collapse next year or the year after, at the latest.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheTurtle', '2')) As I've written in a couple of other threads, China will implode within the next two years, IMO.


I'd very much like to read your thoughts on the matter. Might it be possible to get a link?


I don't recall that I actually said anything particularly noteworthy other than "China will implode by 2006." Hardly worth linking to ... :razz:
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Unread postby gego » Fri 15 Jul 2005, 00:05:01

When I am out on the highway and notice all the vehicles, I often think of the idea that 30 years after peak oil there will be no economically meaningful production of oil.

I an unconvinced that anything can come close to replacing that lost source of energy to move vehicles, not to mention all the other things dependent on oil.

I just don't see how the earth population can stay at 6.5 much less grow to 9 billion by 2050 as is predicted from some quarters. It seems a fairly basic conclusion that population must fall to meet the new food, water and shelter reality.

Without gas to power tractors the next best alternative is to revert to draft animals for farming. It will take decades to build up the number of draft animals. They need to eat and historically 1/3 of agricultural production has gone to feed draft animals. Agricuture without modern methods can only produce 1/3 of what modern methods produce. Given these two factors contributing to agricultural production, we are down to 22.22% of what we now produce and this will be where we will be in just 30 short years after peak. This only accounts for food production problems and does not address food distribution problems. This is without considering the problems people will have with keeping warm in the winter, cool in the summer, disposal of human waste and garbage or access to water in an economy that is contracting violently from lack of energy.
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Unread postby Hawkcreek » Fri 15 Jul 2005, 01:44:02

--
Last edited by Hawkcreek on Sun 09 Sep 2007, 17:59:44, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby k_semler » Fri 15 Jul 2005, 02:01:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DriveElectric', 'W')hich level of doomerosity means that we will at least still have beer?

Have no fear! There will always be Beer!


Fuck Fear! Drink Beer!

(Bumper sticker that I have on my car).
Here Lies the United States Of America.

July 04, 1776 - June 23 2005

Epitaph: "The Experiment Is Over."

Rest In Peace.

Eminent Domain Was The Murderer.
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Unread postby Sunspot » Fri 15 Jul 2005, 02:48:18

I voted 6, but I may have been a little hasty, 5 actually would be more accurate I guess. But what the hell is the difference really? I expect my life to change radically and then there is the strong liklihood that it will be cut shorter than I'd like, and I just turned 54. Either way, 5 or 6, it's so bad that it's hard to even think about the possibility that it'll really happen, even though I "know" it has to. At some point.
At various levels, I've sort of known for decades that this whole civilization thing was a house of cards. The 90's lulled me into thinking that at least I'd grow old before it all started hitting the fan. I never had much faith in things by, say, 2100. Not my problem, really. But now I know that the bottom row of that house of cards is where the fossil fuel cards are, and removing the bottom cards always creates problems quickly.
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