[KaiserJeep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kiwichick', '@') sjn..... I agree with your characterization ......it is going to be interesting.....

it seems that many people have trouble quite how fragile our agricultural systems are....and how many areas are already borderline

on the other hand the best minds are continually working on adaptations even though many in the agricultural sphere are deeply conservative.....it's a race against both ingrained policy's and time

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', ' ')In another couple of human generations, there will be more people than can be fed. That is already true in some places in the Third World. It is likely that it never will be true in the any First World country.

[KaiserJeep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', ' ')In another couple of human generations, there will be more people than can be fed. That is already true in some places in the Third World. It is likely that it never will be true in the any First World country.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', ' ')In another couple of human generations, there will be more people than can be fed. That is already true in some places in the Third World. It is likely that it never will be true in the any First World country.

[KilonBerlin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', ' ')In another couple of human generations, there will be more people than can be fed. That is already true in some places in the Third World. It is likely that it never will be true in the any First World country.

[KilonBerlin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KilonBerlin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '
')
I don't know if anybody ever said that, but the Roman Empire survived through barbarian invasions, plagues, and wars, even several civil wars. The only time there was a food shortage was when Alaric blockaded the ports in the 4th Century. The Roman Empire arguably lasted 500 years, the American Empire is only half that old.

[vtsnowedin]

KilonB
Highways in the US are lighted in urban areas where there are multiple lanes and heavy traffic . City streets are lighted for pedestrian safety and to reduce crime. Long stretches of highways between towns are not. Sign shields use reflective tape but some in urban areas are also lighted. My electricity cost me 0.22 $ per kwh retail.
Yes the gas tax should be increased both to rebuild infrastructure on a pay as you go basis and to decrease gasoline consumption.
By the end of Americas civil war the USA was recognized as a world power to be reckoned with, not for the size of it's standing Army but for it's industrial capacity.
By WW2 we were literally building ships and planes faster then anyone could destroy them.

[onlooker]

Here is something to keep in mind. Look at the major hurdles to scaling up wind and solar.
1: Power Storage Is Incredibly Expensive On A Large Scale
2: The U.S. Power Grid Is Older, And Has Trouble Handling Solar And Wind
3: Rebuilding The Power Grid To Handle Solar And Wind Is Absurdly Expensive
4: Solar and Wind Don’t Provide Power At Useful Times
5: Solar And Wind Can’t Keep the Lights On By Themselves
6: The Best Places For Solar And Wind Are Usually Far Away From Consumers
7. Solar And Wind Are A Very Small Percent Of The Power Grid Despite Years of Subsidies
8: The Solar And Wind “Low-Hanging Fruit” Have Already Been Taken
http://dailycaller.com/2015/12/25/top-1 ... ind-power/
Now, look at just what amount of building out of renewable infrastructure we are talking about.
In fact, at the global level, in order to shift away from a world that gets 81 percent of its energy from fossil fuels and to cut emissions of carbon dioxide to just 14 gigatons per year, here is what the International Energy Agency says will have to be built every year between now and 2050: 35 coal-fired and 20 gas-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage; 30 nuclear power plants; 12,000 onshore wind turbines paired with 3,600 offshore ones; 45 geothermal power plants; 325 million square meters-worth of photovoltaics; and 55 solar-thermal power plants. That doesn’t even include the need to build electric cars and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in order to shift transportation away from burning gasoline.
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/green_ener ... g_up/2362/

[ROCKMAN]

Looker - Let's take some of those points one at a time:

"Power Storage Is Incredibly Expensive On A Large Scale" Just like badges: "We don't need no stinking storage". LOL. The power goes straight into the grid and immediately consumed. Don't need storage since we haven't gotten rid of any of our fossil fuel powered generation.

"The U.S. Power Grid Is Older, And Has Trouble Handling Solar And Wind" There is no "U.S. Power Grid". There are 3 grids...not one: East, West and Texas. And the Texas grid is preforiming admirably.

"Rebuilding The Power Grid To Handle Solar And Wind Is Absurdly Expensive". Not too expensive at $7 BILLION since the Texas politician spent those tax payer $'s to expand our grid. As far as the wind farms themselves being too expensive: apparently the folks investing $BILLIONS in private capex disagreed.

"Solar and Wind Don’t Provide Power At Useful Times". Our wind turbines spin really fast when the winter storms blow hard across those west Texas plains. Especially when demands exceeds the out put of our ff plants. Like when a polar vortex shut down some NG fueled plants and the wind farms prevented blackouts by providing nearly 40% of THE TOTAL STATEWIDE DEMAND. Pretty damn useful in north Texas when the polar vortex knocked out all of their ff generated electricity when the temp dropped below 0°.

"Solar And Wind Can’t Keep the Lights On By Themselves" Which is why they are a perfect SUPPLEMENT for our ff fired plants as well as a great SUBSTITUTE for the additional ff fired plants we would have had to build to meet our booming electricity demand.

"The Best Places For Solar And Wind Are Usually Far Away From Consumers". And thus the easy economic justification for expanding our grid with tax payer $'s. In addition to shipping wind power in to our major population centers our solar is about to boom now that prices are coming down. And fortunately that grid expansion covers south Texas where we have a gazillion acres of open and nearly worthless sun drenched acres.

"Solar And Wind Are A Very Small Percent Of The Power Grid Despite Years of Subsidies" In Texas, by far the largest electricity consuming state, that "small percent" has ranged from 10% to 40%.

"The Solar And Wind “Low-Hanging Fruit” Have Already Been Taken". As mentioned already with solar costs coming down we have a gazillion acres of "low hanging" solar fruit in south Texas that's ready to be picked since they are already tied to our expanded grid. FYI: one of our biggest wind farms is on our southern coastline.

But that's just us environmentally conscious Texans doing what we can to save the planet. LOL.

[onlooker]

Pretty thorough counter to my post Rockman. You are making a convert out of me. Question though can Texas become the whole US?

[KaiserJeep]

The short answer is no. However wind and solar and a scattering of other sources can replace FF's if we first learn to conserve, and re-implement our infrastructure to use 15% of the energy we consume now. It would be a useful thing for the US Federal Government to set such a goal, say over a 25-year implementation period, and then shut down any enterprise that fails to meet such a goal.

[onlooker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'T')he short answer is no. However wind and solar and a scattering of other sources can replace FF's if we first learn to conserve, and re-implement our infrastructure to use 15% of the energy we consume now. It would be a useful thing for the US Federal Government to set such a goal, say over a 25-year implementation period, and then shut down any enterprise that fails to meet such a goal.

[ROCKMAN]

Looker - Actually not a very fair counter. First, we do have some significant geographical adavtages over many states. And then having decided long ago to have a separately electrical grid was probably critical: had we been in East or West I question if we could have gotten a consensus among the adjacent states AND the feds to expand. Then we've had a booming economy that demanded something be done to expand electricity generation. If a state's economy/population wasn't growing (let alone if it was shrinking) how could it justify EXPANDING or REPLACING capacity? Remember we were going to have to build NEW plants and not replace EXISTING infrastructure. And let's not forget we have a sh*tload of money thanks to fossil fuels...like our $10 BILLION sovereign fund to fall back on. Ironic, eh: our huge fossil fuel industry provided Texas with the incentive and capex to expand alternative energy sources. How many states can claim the same?

[onlooker]

So not easily translated to the whole of the US. Still good to know at least one state is making it work

[ROCKMAN]

KJ - "It would be a useful thing for the US Federal Government to set such a goal". But that brings us full circle back to that hindrance again: local vs national policy. Are the feds going to institute the same motor fuel conservation measures for NY as Wyoming? The same heating/cooling policies for PA as F!orida?. The same overall energy consumption policy for the growing Houston economy as the crippled Detroit economy?

And if the feds try to avoid a one-size-fits-all approach and customize by state or region can you imagine the political battles in Congress. As I just pointed out to Looker: Texas has a very unique energy dynamic. As does CA to a degree. Each state, or at least each region,has a unique set of advantages and negatives. Thus each has to develop its own unighunighue plan going forward.

The country has sat for many decades waiting for the feds to come up with a plan forward. The national mpg of the ROLLING FLEET improving just a fraction of 1% per year? An SPR costing many $BILLIONS that would allow us (for a very short pertiod) to burn as much motor fuel as we have been? = conservation? President Obama signing a $205 BILLION bill for highway construction (compared to the $478 BILLION budget he originally propoided) = conservation? And today exporting more oil, NG and coal then ever before in history = conservation? And 40% of US coal production coming from federal lands = conservation? The govt offering more offshore oil/NG leases at one time to the industry then every before in history = conservation? The federal offshore areas projected to producd more oil in 2017 then ever before in history = conservation? The govt spending $TRILLIONS in tax revenue and the lives of thousands of our military to maintain ME oil production = conservation?

Is that similar to the model of the 25 year plan you have in mind? As Dr. Phil would ask: How's that working for you? LOL.

And again the irony: the person that for more then 4 decades worked so hard to find fossil fuels is also often the one that posts the most damning facts about on energy gluttony? LOL.

[KaiserJeep]

RM, 15% of the current energy consumed is my estimate of what can be achieved if we make a good try. I admittedly have given little thought to the implementation details. Things like giving up security lighting, banning bulbs other than LEDs for general lighting applications, taxing the He!! out of fuel-burning vehicles and their fuel, while subsidizing EVs, etc. Probably a whole lot of other things. Then there are things like fertilizer production which cannot be done without natural gas. Mandating that each and every building be renovated or replaced is still another item.

The pushback will be enormous. If you think that it would be fair enough, just limit each state to 15% of the hydrocarbon fuels they now consume, and let each state apportion them as they wish. But DOT regs and CAFE goals and the like have always been Federal and probably should remain so, we just need to crank the screws down on the fuel consumers and the fuel producers, because we want the oil reserves to last 6X as long as they are likely to consuming at the present rates.

I'm not saying it won't be disruptive - it will be, in spades. The screams of the Congress Critters will be heard in Virginia and Maryland, all the way from Capital Hill.

What I'm saying, is this needs to be done, while we have the energy reserves to re-implement our infrastructure and power grid.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'S')o not easily translated to the whole of the US. Still good to know at least one state is making it work

[kiwichick]

thanks for that info Kublikhan.......and of course we don't actually have a choice about transitioning to low carbon emitting power sources......if we want a planet capable of supporting the majority of species currently present on this planet

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... isaster-un

[KilonBerlin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'K')ilonB
Highways in the US are lighted in urban areas where there are multiple lanes and heavy traffic . City streets are lighted for pedestrian safety and to reduce crime. Long stretches of highways between towns are not. Sign shields use reflective tape but some in urban areas are also lighted. My electricity cost me 0.22 $ per kwh retail.
Yes the gas tax should be increased both to rebuild infrastructure on a pay as you go basis and to decrease gasoline consumption.
By the end of Americas civil war the USA was recognized as a world power to be reckoned with, not for the size of it's standing Army but for it's industrial capacity.
By WW2 we were literally building ships and planes faster then anyone could destroy them.

[ROCKMAN]

KJ - "...what can be achieved if we make a good try.". My point wasn't about what could be done. It was about who to expect will guide the effort: local govt vs the feds. The states that have made significant advances did it primarily with locals...not the folks in DC. Can't tell for sure but I get the sense that a lot of folks are waiting for Sir Federally to ride in on his white horse to save then the nasty Dr. FF. LOL.