PeakOil is You
THE Cantarell Thread (merged)
Re: THE Cantarell Thread (merged)
by Tanada » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 13:13:20
The Cantarell field is one of the worlds largest offshore fields Pstarr so what is it you are trying to communicate here?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
- Tanada
- Site Admin
- Posts: 17094
- Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
- Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA
Re: THE Cantarell Thread (merged)
by rockdoc123 » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 13:53:44
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')oth were produced by the Mexican nationalized oil industry under an expensive high-tech tertiary regime. There are no new fields to discover other than somewhere somehow deep under the GOM.
Although from the outside looking in the Mexican oil industry looks mature once you look at the details this is not the case. The last onshore bid round concentrated on old fields that had been operated by PEMEX for decades. For various reasons (no capital, incompetent management, lack of training, poor attention to data monitoring etc) these fields were largely underdeveloped. I think Mexico is in a place that Canada was several decades ago where large discoveries had been made and produced but little in the way of pressure maintenance, infill drilling, stepout drilling etc had been accomplished. How much this can add to the overall reserves picture of Mexico becomes a question but in the short term it can certainly help address production issues. An example in point is I had the opportunity to look at one of their oldest fields. Many of the wells were completed barefoot (no casing over the producing interval) had never had artifical lift employed nor had been subject to detailed 3D seismic investigation or field pressure maintenance. The wells were still producing at a few bbls a day but it is clear that simply running liner and putting downhole pumps in the wells would improve production immensely. Also the techniques employed by Pemex at fields like Chicontepec and likely KMZ are less than ideal in terms of modern standards. If Pemex and the MX gov't can ever get their act together correctly there could be some vast improvements in overall production without tapping deep water.
-
rockdoc123 - Expert
- Posts: 7685
- Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 03:00:00
Re: THE Cantarell Thread (merged)
by ROCKMAN » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 15:27:40
pstarr - A few of details. First, Catarell Field is actually 5 seperate reservoirs. And while the first was discovered in 1976 the fifth wasn't found until 1998. And while production has declined significantly, in 2014 PEMEX announced big plans to stabilize and perhaps increase production:
"Reuters - Pemex plans to launch a $6 billion investment in 2017 to maintain current levels of production at its Cantarell field over the next decade. Discovered in 1976, output from the offshore Cantarell field once supplied over 2 MMb/d, or more than half of Mexico's total crude production. But output at the field has fallen more than 80% since 2004 to hover around 340,000 b/d.
The Pemex nvestment will counteract the natural decline of Cantarell by squeezing out an additional 100,000 b/d per year via secondary recovery over the course of a decade. The plan includes stabilizing Akal, Cantarell's most productive sub-field, to keep its output steady at between 180,000 b/d and 200,000 b/d for a longer period of time. In May, Akal’s crude output stood at about 189,000 b/d."
Of course two important questions. First, will those results actually materialize. Second, can Pemex come up with $6 billion. Historically one of Pemex's big problem was the govt stripping it of revenue to support itself.
And no one is going to steal Mexico's oil. If a foreign company deverlops Mexican oil it will be done on terms the govt finds acceptable. If they aren't the Mexican govt is free to make the investment itself.
And again you are way, way overestimating the cost to develop Deep Waterr fields. Yes: spending several $BILLION souinds like a lot. But that's in absolute terms. But when you factor in the huge reserves in those fields the cost per bbl is actually some of the lowest. Which explains why companies have invested $TRILLIONS in developing them. Consider a field that costs $5 BILLION to develop. But if it produces just 300 million net bbls of oil at today's $50/bbl the company recovers $15 BILLION. And if it sells that oil for $80/bbl...do the math. Think about the Pemex plan: spend $6 BILLION to add only 100,000 bopd. Many DW fields come on at 2 to 3 times that rate.
"Reuters - Pemex plans to launch a $6 billion investment in 2017 to maintain current levels of production at its Cantarell field over the next decade. Discovered in 1976, output from the offshore Cantarell field once supplied over 2 MMb/d, or more than half of Mexico's total crude production. But output at the field has fallen more than 80% since 2004 to hover around 340,000 b/d.
The Pemex nvestment will counteract the natural decline of Cantarell by squeezing out an additional 100,000 b/d per year via secondary recovery over the course of a decade. The plan includes stabilizing Akal, Cantarell's most productive sub-field, to keep its output steady at between 180,000 b/d and 200,000 b/d for a longer period of time. In May, Akal’s crude output stood at about 189,000 b/d."
Of course two important questions. First, will those results actually materialize. Second, can Pemex come up with $6 billion. Historically one of Pemex's big problem was the govt stripping it of revenue to support itself.
And no one is going to steal Mexico's oil. If a foreign company deverlops Mexican oil it will be done on terms the govt finds acceptable. If they aren't the Mexican govt is free to make the investment itself.
And again you are way, way overestimating the cost to develop Deep Waterr fields. Yes: spending several $BILLION souinds like a lot. But that's in absolute terms. But when you factor in the huge reserves in those fields the cost per bbl is actually some of the lowest. Which explains why companies have invested $TRILLIONS in developing them. Consider a field that costs $5 BILLION to develop. But if it produces just 300 million net bbls of oil at today's $50/bbl the company recovers $15 BILLION. And if it sells that oil for $80/bbl...do the math. Think about the Pemex plan: spend $6 BILLION to add only 100,000 bopd. Many DW fields come on at 2 to 3 times that rate.
-
ROCKMAN - Expert
- Posts: 11397
- Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
- Location: TEXAS
Re: THE Cantarell Thread (merged)
by rockdoc123 » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 16:43:45
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course two important questions. First, will those results actually materialize. Second, can Pemex come up with $6 billion. Historically one of Pemex's big problem was the govt stripping it of revenue to support itself.
precisely the reason the constitution was reformed and why the MX gov't has been having bid rounds open to both foreign companies as well as newly formed MX independants. Pemex and the gov't can't fund the appropriate programs so why not use someone else's money. Works everywhere else in the world. The gov't is on the right path they just have to shed themselves of the decades of corruption and civil servant entitlement syndrome.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd no one is going to steal Mexico's oil. If a foreign company develops Mexican oil it will be done on terms the govt finds acceptable. If they aren't the Mexican govt is free to make the investment itself.
LIke most countries the Petroleum Law states that all resources are the property of Mexico. Foreign companies can have the right to profit share or get paid a service fee for developing and lifting crude but they never actually own the resource. I think the US is one of the few places in the world where a company can actually own the oil it has subsurface rights to. Note that Pemex has actually participated in the offshore bid round, bidding as a consortium with a couple of foreign entities.
-
rockdoc123 - Expert
- Posts: 7685
- Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 03:00:00
