[AirlinePilot]

West Texas..where art though?

Would like to see an update to the global picture on supply, and exports.

[ROCKMAN]

AP - He's probably doing the same as the Rockman: working 60-70 hours a week trying to find another spot to poke a hole in the ground. LOL

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'W')est Texas..where art though?

Would like to see an update to the global picture on supply, and exports.

[Revi]

I learned a lot from Jeffrey Brown's talk on Chris Martenson's Peak Prosperity podcast.

1)Why is gas getting cheaper? I was wondering how gasoline could be getting cheaper, and it turns out this condensate is best at making gasoline.

2) Where did the "glut" come from? Apparently the glut is in this ultra light condensate, caused by fracking, and it's piling up all over the world. There is no glut in distillates, such as diesel and heating oil. Hence the price of gasoline keeps going down while the price of diesel and heating oil is holding.

3) Why do the oil trains seem to be blowing up? Unlike crude oil, this stuff is really explosive and once it gets going is a lot like gasoline, so that's why the trains are burning up nowadays.

So, it looks like this will be the case for a little while longer.

I predict that we will end up with very little diesel in a year or two. This does not bode well for farming, as it is presently practiced.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')here is no glut in distillates, such as diesel and heating oil. Hence the price of gasoline keeps going down while the price of diesel and heating oil is holding.

[Pops]

Only if you choose to ignore that Diesel was cheaper than unleaded as recently as 2 weeks ago due to the increase in gasoline demand.

But then that goes against the storyline that no one wants gasoline anymore...

LoL

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he persistent price premium for diesel compared with gasoline from August 2009 until last week reflected a combination of factors including strong global demand for diesel, federal fuel taxes for diesel that are 6 cents/gal higher than those for gasoline, and the higher production cost of ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) that was phased in between 2006 and 2010.
Gasoline and diesel have opposite seasonal demand patterns: gasoline demand tends to peak in the summer driving months, while diesel demand generally peaks in the winter heating months. Since January, gasoline demand growth has been unusually strong both in the United States and abroad. Furthermore, although retail gasoline prices in most parts of the country have in recent weeks followed decreasing crude oil prices, elevated retail gasoline prices in California, as a result of ongoing supply disruptions, have raised the U.S. weekly average gasoline retail price.
Tight diesel markets over the past six years have reflected growing diesel demand from developing economies and the switchover to ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) for home heating oil in northeastern states, where more than 80% of U.S. use of oil for space heating occurs. Over the same period, gasoline demand has generally been weak, reflecting increasing vehicle fuel economy and changing consumer driving patterns.
Gasoline demand in the United States began to rise considerably in the latter part of 2014 and through the first half of 2015 as U.S. retail gasoline prices reached some of their lowest levels in years, reflecting the fall in North Sea Brent crude oil prices from an average of $112 per barrel (b) in June 2014 to $48/b in January 2015. Gasoline prices generally followed Brent crude oil prices, falling from $3.69/gal in June 2014 to $2.12/gal in January 2015. Based on the latest data from the Federal Highway Administration, Americans drove a record 987.8 billion miles during the first four months of 2015, topping the previous record of 965.6 billion miles set in the first four months of 2007. Global gasoline demand also increased strongly in the first half of 2015.

[ROCKMAN]

pstarr - Great point. Now consider this: global oil consumption 1976: 58 mm bopd. Now who would like to calculate what the % is of 1976 and 2016 the various production metrics such as ME, OPEC, US, etc.

For instance: what % of global consumption in 1976 and 2016 does the ME NET OIL EXPORT represent? And be careful: does your consumption number include ME consumption?

[sparky]

.
Statistics on world crude exports are usually dated , the reference date is 2012 ( 42.5 Mbd )
there is some confusion between crude oil , condensates and non-conventionals
also the re-export of refined products sometimes sneak into the statistics .
to make it more maddening if crude is imported into a country for storage then re-exported , it can be counted twice

[ROCKMAN]

pstarr - "...you are not an ETP skeptic?" Don't take this the wrong way: have you been living in a cave or did you have a f*cking stroke last night? LOL. Skeptic of predictions about energy??? Hell, sometimes I have momentary doubts when someone predicts the sun will come up the next morning. But for 4 decades I've been listening to one incorrect prediction, big and small, after another so perhaps I'm a tad jaded.

[Revi]

The fact that more and more oil is being used at the source is interesting. I know a lot of people who are living in the Middle East and they are doing it because they are living a pretty good life over there. A lot of people who used to live in the rest of the world end up there. Working people, managers, teachers, etc. We are attracted to the oil. Just like a lot of people went to Texas about 40 years ago. People will go to where the economy is better. I knew people who lived in Dubai, Kuwait and Riyadh. There are people from all over there. There weren't many people there to begin with, so they imported a lot of people to run things.

http://peakoil.com/consumption/middle-e ... -years-ago

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he fact that more and more oil is being used at the source is interesting. I know a lot of people who are living in the Middle East and they are doing it because they are living a pretty good life over there. A lot of people who used to live in the rest of the world end up there. Working people, managers, teachers, etc. We are attracted to the oil. Just like a lot of people went to Texas about 40 years ago. People will go to where the economy is better. I knew people who lived in Dubai, Kuwait and Riyadh. There are people from all over there. There weren't many people there to begin with, so they imported a lot of people to run things.

http://peakoil.com/consumption/middle-e ... -years-ago

[ROCKMAN]

Care - 40 years ago??? LOL.

New figures from the U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday showed Texas boasts five of the nation's eleven fastest-growing cities. Little has changed since the days when people in the first states decided they'd had it with city life, left their homes and chalked the letters GTT on the door--"Gone to Texas." Except that now Texas sports some of the nation's biggest cities, and the migrants come from abroad, the West Coast and Midwest more than from the East.

The state's cities and suburbs consistently rank among the fastest-growing in the country. The 2010 US Census recorded Texas as having a population of 25.1 million—an increase of 4.3 million since the year 2000. Hispanics are also the largest group of incoming migrants, both foreign and domestic. In coming decades the Hispanic demographic will double the population to 50 million by 2050.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'C')are - 40 years ago??? LOL.

[ROCKMAN]

Care - I think I misinterpreted you: what did you do in 2002 and where did you go?

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'C')are - I think I misinterpreted you: what did you do in 2002 and where did you go?