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THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby salinsky » Wed 02 Nov 2016, 19:28:59

PeakOiler Did you see my above comment regarding ROCKMAN and our guesses?
I'm glad to see I still hold first place.
SAL
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 03 Nov 2016, 05:53:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('salinsky', 'P')eakOiler Did you see my above comment regarding ROCKMAN and our guesses?
I'm glad to see I still hold first place.
SAL


Yes I did, but when you posted that message, I hadn't downloaded the EIA data through Oct. 31st yet.
Looks like you were closer. Your guess was off by $1.29 and my guess was off by $2.28.

I don't expect ROCKMAN to respond. What would you expect him to say?
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby salinsky » Thu 03 Nov 2016, 12:11:47

ROCKMAN issued the challenge, so I would expect him to make some kind of response. He'd probably say something like: "You guessers sure don't know your arse hole from a dry hole,LOL. At a $1.25 X 19 billion bbls we're talking mucho f*cking dinero partner LOL. Better luck next time.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Fri 04 Nov 2016, 18:49:55

Well, it looks like my guess for the closing price by the end of October was off by just a few days, Salinsky. And your answer above to my question about ROCKMAN did make me lol. :)

Can prices rise about 22% by the end of the year? That's about what needs to happen for me to have any chance of leading the Challenge this year.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby salinsky » Sat 05 Nov 2016, 00:51:31

I expect ROCKMAN to respond at some point unless he's just another asshole from El Paso. Now that I think on it some, believe I done heard he's from down Houston way.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 09 Nov 2016, 15:53:10

This week's scorecard:

Image

Salinski's lead shrunk to only $1.76 with the current closing price ($44.88) and new average price. A closing price of $44 would put EdwinSm back in first.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby salinsky » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 19:11:09

Have you got an update on the latest standings?
SAL
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sun 20 Nov 2016, 08:09:21

I've been busy with other things...

Here's the scorecard as of November 14th:

Image

Don't fret Sal, the closing price has risen up to about $45 since the 14th and you're back in 1st place.

I'm starting to think that the price will NOT rally this year to around $55.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby salinsky » Sun 20 Nov 2016, 15:19:34

Thanks for the update. It appears that oil will go no higher than the low 50s.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby EdwinSm » Mon 21 Nov 2016, 04:55:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', ' ')Don't fret Sal, the closing price has risen up to about $45 since the 14th and you're back in 1st place.


Shame. I don't even get a week to bask in "my superior knowledge of the markets" :roll: before my place is lost.

Every year my guesses are based mostly on BAU (ie continuing of the path the oil price has taken in the preceding year), and mostly I end up near the bottom of the game. Lesson learned:- how oil prices have behaved this year is a very poor indicator for how they will behave next year (but occasionally they will misbehave and the model will be spot on).
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Cog » Mon 21 Nov 2016, 12:04:11

Oil price is coming up nicely today.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 24 Nov 2016, 06:37:55

Here's this week's scorecard:

Image

I'll start the 2017 Oil Price Challenge thread in a few days.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby SteinarN » Thu 24 Nov 2016, 08:54:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '
')
I'll start the 2017 Oil Price Challenge thread in a few days.


This year I wont miss it, so, prepare :twisted:
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Pops » Thu 24 Nov 2016, 10:11:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EdwinSm', '[')Every year my guesses are based mostly on BAU

this time I pretty well used the EIA projection and did better than I have in a long time

They've sure gotten smarter

LOL
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Cog » Wed 30 Nov 2016, 08:23:09

Oil markets going nuts on the belief that OPEC will reach an agreement in Vienna to cut production. They are expected to make a press statement at 0900 Eastern today. Bought some BP stock yesterday in hopes this would happen. Lets see if Cog is going to get boned.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Fri 02 Dec 2016, 18:45:37

If the closing price stays at about $51.60 (or more) on Monday, then GASMON will be in first place!
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby careinke » Sat 03 Dec 2016, 22:18:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GASMON', 'Y')ippee !!

Do you all want to know my predictions re Donald Trump & Brexit !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gasmon


I do, I do!!! :)
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Quinny » Tue 06 Dec 2016, 17:56:56

I've worked out the best way to prove the ETP wrong would be for me to use it to predict next years PO.com price challenge.
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