$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tikib', 'I')ts literally impossible to transition from oil to wind and solar.
You need an EROEI of over 50 to transition to and the only things that fit that bill are molten salt(not necessarily thorium starvinglion) and HAWT.
Solar EROEI: 2 to 10
Wind EROEI 20 to 30
Moltex is my favourite molten salt:
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/0 ... CRQoYXXKHl
LCOE $38 cheaper than any form of power on the grid.
PeakOil is You
Impossible - wind and solar
Re: Impossible - wind and solar
by Ulenspiegel » Tue 22 Nov 2016, 03:24:21
Nonsense. You compare science fiction - there is no running molten salt reactor which produces hard economic data - with reality.
It is a save bet that onshore wind power in the USA beats all fission reactors. Get used to it.
- Ulenspiegel
- Lignite
- Posts: 260
- Joined: Thu 04 Jul 2013, 03:15:29
Re: Impossible - wind and solar
by ROCKMAN » Tue 22 Nov 2016, 09:00:02
"Its literally impossible to transition from oil to wind and solar." If Texas were a country it would tie with the 4th largest in wind power. And it had nothing to do with transitioning from oil. It was all about not adding more NG and especially coal fired electricity generation. And as such has proved very successful supplying the grid of the largest consuming state (much more then even #2) with 10% of demand. And almost 40% during a short winter emergency when we lost some NG plants a couple of years ago.
But the economics aren't that straight forward as playing the EROEI angle. First, the tax payers covered the $7 BILLION needed to expand the grid. Also some cities agreed to higher initial rates to subsidize wind generation. For instance one city, Georgetown, is going to go 100 alt by paying such rates. And it has nothing to do with wanting to be "green"...they couldn't care less about GHG and CC. City management clearly explains it's all about economies: pay higher rates now (when NG and lignite generation cost are relatively low) and get a 20+ year fixed lower rates. This avoids the volatility we've experienced: not too many years ago NG was costing 5X the current price.
As explained many times: EROEI has no bearing on fossil fuel development decisions...it's all about the $'s. In the case of Texas wind power the dynamics are the same: decisions never were and never will be made based upon EROEI.
But the economics aren't that straight forward as playing the EROEI angle. First, the tax payers covered the $7 BILLION needed to expand the grid. Also some cities agreed to higher initial rates to subsidize wind generation. For instance one city, Georgetown, is going to go 100 alt by paying such rates. And it has nothing to do with wanting to be "green"...they couldn't care less about GHG and CC. City management clearly explains it's all about economies: pay higher rates now (when NG and lignite generation cost are relatively low) and get a 20+ year fixed lower rates. This avoids the volatility we've experienced: not too many years ago NG was costing 5X the current price.
As explained many times: EROEI has no bearing on fossil fuel development decisions...it's all about the $'s. In the case of Texas wind power the dynamics are the same: decisions never were and never will be made based upon EROEI.
-
ROCKMAN - Expert
- Posts: 11397
- Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
- Location: TEXAS
Re: Impossible - wind and solar
by vtsnowedin » Tue 22 Nov 2016, 11:17:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')
As explained many times: EROEI has no bearing on fossil fuel development decisions...it's all about the $'s. In the case of Texas wind power the dynamics are the same: decisions never were and never will be made based upon EROEI.
')
As explained many times: EROEI has no bearing on fossil fuel development decisions...it's all about the $'s. In the case of Texas wind power the dynamics are the same: decisions never were and never will be made based upon EROEI.
But does not the EI at the end of ERoEI cost money to invest?
In a logic problem one could say that all energy is money but not all money is energy.
When the EI cost in $ gets high enough the ER will not be salable at a high enough price to cover the costs and projects will stop. Other costs might have stopped it long before that such as sovereign taxes or environmental protection requirements but tax rates can change and rules can be relaxed. The EI cost in $ will not be adjustable and will be the final nail in the coffin.
-
vtsnowedin - Fusion
- Posts: 14897
- Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Re: Impossible - wind and solar
by Newfie » Tue 22 Nov 2016, 12:26:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'R')ight, exactly. Vermont is not Philly. No chance of directional boring. All cut and cover. Boonies.
Vermont, largest city Burlington. 43,000 population
PA, largest city Philadelohia. 1,533,000. 35 times the size.
Hell your whole STATE population is less than half the size of Philadelphia.
I've had the opposite experience of over estimating when going from a large NE perspective to a SE area. Costs can be much different.
Vermont, largest city Burlington. 43,000 population
PA, largest city Philadelohia. 1,533,000. 35 times the size.
Hell your whole STATE population is less than half the size of Philadelphia.
I've had the opposite experience of over estimating when going from a large NE perspective to a SE area. Costs can be much different.
While I have always lived in Vermont most of my construction experience has been in New Hampshire. I worked as a construction inspector for the DOT for thirty years before retiring from them and working for consulting firms for the last ten years. Large cities like Philly have a lot of people that don't own or need cars so thy would be the last place I'd be looking to retrofit chargers. Instead I'd be adding them wherever streets were being rebuilt or new parking lots were being constructed. Where you already have the pavement and sidewalk torn up the addition of a wiring run is a cheap addition. Slipping it in between sidewalk and the front stoop of a Brownstone quite another. As it will take at least fifteen years to turn our fleet of cars from ICEs to electric we have plenty of time to start with the cheapest places first and leave the urban areas until sometime when they are being upgraded.
VT,
not so much difference in our final opinion, as usual our frame of reference is just different.
One final observation to ponder and I'll leave it alone.
We just moved out of out brownstone. We STILL can't get Verizion FIOS. Because of infrastructure costs. Never mind that almost every house on our block has 6 apartments rented by Penn Grad students who are starved for bandwidth.
-
Newfie - Forum Moderator
- Posts: 18651
- Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
- Location: Between Canada and Carribean
Sorry.
Don't get sunburned now.