by Outcast_Searcher » Mon 21 Nov 2016, 14:48:17
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'A')s I'm coming up on age 62 in a few months I spent some time today at the social security web site determining when to start drawing mine. It seems like a no brainer to me to start as soon as possible unless you're in excellent health and have a family history of longevity on both sides.
For example (not my personal numbers) someone my age has a full retirement age of 66 and two months. Lets say at that age he will get $1333 per month. If he starts now at age 62 he only gets $1000 a month and it will not increase when he gets to 66+2m. 66+2m is 50 months away so by starting now he will have been paid $50,000. After that a person that waited to draw until 66+2m gains on him by $333 a month and dividing that into $50,000 you get 150 months for the two options to draw even. that would be age 78+8 mos.
78+8 is past my life expectancy especially considering the medications I'm already on and siblings that have past away before me.
Any thoughts or comments?
https://secure.ssa.gov/RIL/SiView.dovtsnowedin, as a person who has made saving and investing a fundamental hobby/strategy throughout my life (from literally, age 10), this is an example of an issue I've given a fair amount of thought.
First, Kudos -- you are looking at this rationally, instead of emotionally. IMO, the vast majority of people let too much emotion about what is fair, right, what they wish/hope, etc. cloud the decision. The numbers don't care. Probability doesn't care.
Since the whole thing is set up to actuarily balance out, and since I presume the collective knowledge of said actuaries is better than 99.999% of armchair internet "experts" on such matters, it's pretty fair to assume that in the aggregate, it's a coin toss.
So, if you have MEANINGFUL data about your likely longevity and medical needs compared to Joe Average, then letting that make your decision makes sense. (Clearly, that data itself needs to be meaningful, and not based on emotion).
I also agree with Cog's point about the saving and investing favoring taking the money early. IF you have the means and willpower to use the SS funds to keep meaningfully higher tax deferred savings in your 401-K, etc., that has real value. (We're all subject to RMD's starting at 70.5, except for Roth IRA balances. And that's one area I don't trust government not to renege on. When more income is badly needed in coming decades, I'm not at all confident they won't change the rules on the Roth accounts, if push comes to shove).
The vast majority of people that have real financial problems are in a box (for whatever reasons) where they lack the resources to make choices like saving and investing significant sums. For those who have managed (for whatever reasons) to have those choices, over time -- tax advantaged investments are the best tool to maintain some control over one's circumstances that one can reliably have (IMO).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.