If...

by **Aaron** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 00:16:38

...you could stand up in front of a large crowd of people, and had a half hour to tell them anything about Peak Oil...

What would you tell them?

by **hotsacks** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 00:31:49

That's exactly what I have to do Sept.22 .To a small crowd. In a small town. I haven't got the foggiest what I'm going to say. My notes so far say things like "{Don't be fatalistic" and "Avoid gut feelings".
Sat Aaron,ever wanted to visit northern Ontario?

by **BiGG** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 00:35:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '.')..you could stand up in front of a large crowd of people, and had a half hour to tell them anything about Peak Oil...

What would you tell them?

by **hotsacks** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 00:45:27

It'll likely be a church hall. Details in the works. The audience I expect will be mixed,Some back to the landers,some church folk,maybe a few from middle management.I don't expect focused questioning from the first meeting. I'll be asked lots of : Who said this? and Where did you read that? And of course wind,solar ,biodiesel saving the world questions.
Thinking about it gives me a stomache ache.

by **Jack** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 00:50:14

I'd start with:

Once, about 1950, there was a geologist, named M. King Hubbert. He gave a talk about oil fields and production, and he predicted that North America would have a production peak around 1974...as it turns out, he was right.

I'd then explain the developments that led to a prediction of peak oil in the present era.

Then I'd talk about production declines in various oil fields.

by **SchroedingersCat** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 00:59:53

In small (informal) groups I've had good luck with the bottle of ketchup example. You're hungry, you open a new bottle and it's very easy to pour. Every time you're hungry you just grab the bottle and pour some more ketchup on your fries. When the bottle is about half empty, it takes longer to get the ketchup out and you stay hungry for a little longer. When you get down towards the bottom of the bottle, it takes a lot of effort to get that ketchup and you start thinking about maybe salsa or something else instead. Eventually, it's not worth the effort.

by **hotsacks** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 01:02:24

I like the 'once upon a time' = King Hubbert approach. But if I start naming oil fields,and depletion rates,I'll lose them.These are rural people.Their thought processes are concrete and realistic,they want to know how PO will affect them more than why it's happening.So I want to describe different scenarios and different ways of dealing with the troubles.
Anyone have any PO jokes?

by **hotsacks** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 01:05:12

Ketchuo is good,ketchuo is very good.
Thanks

by **hotsacks** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 01:14:19

Sorry for all the typos.I'm typing by the light of the monitor.

by **Jack** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 01:17:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hotsacks', 'I') like the 'once upon a time' = King Hubbert approach. But if I start naming oil fields,and depletion rates,I'll lose them.These are rural people.Their thought processes are concrete and realistic,they want to know how PO will affect them more than why it's happening.So I want to describe different scenarios and different ways of dealing with the troubles.
Anyone have any PO jokes?

by **hotsacks** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 01:24:48

I see what you mean. It is a great story- one of my tentative titles is The Greatest Story Never Told. What have you found doesn't get through to people when you've led discussions?

by **hotsacks** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 01:28:06

Bingo.

by **jdmartin** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 02:00:33

I'm guessing your in Canada. Don't know much about the Canadian frame of mind but if it's anything like the rural frame of mind you might as well talk to the wall.

I've pretty much given up talking to any of my acquaintances about Peak Oil, because there's a general Republican conservative viewpoint around here that it's some kind of conspiracy between the A-rabs, the oil companies, the dirty environmentalists, and the liberals to jack the prices up. Even showing people the connection doesn't flip the switch in their minds.

by **chuck6877** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 02:09:53

I bet you could get ideas from Maryland House Rep Roscoe Bartlett's speeches to congress.

March 14th speech:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Flo ... House.html

May 2nd speech with visuals:
http://www.energybulletin.net/5948.html

Hope they can give you ideas,
Chuck

by **Eli** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 02:11:10

Hotstacks do not kill them with data most people slept through math class and don't like numbers.

The story is the key your just telling a story about how oil is in decline the other thing is do not be to gloomy that will turn people off. Ghawar and Cantarell make for a good story and Hubbert is great he has a track record just talk about how he nailed the US peak.

Even if it is the end of the world nobody wants to believe it. You just want people to become knowledgeable enough to wake up that we may have hit peak and things are going to change.

By September your opening line may be gas is 3.00 dollars and your natural gas bill has doubled over last year because we have hit Po.

You better hope we do not have a stock market crash or more hurricanes gumming up the works because if that is so the cat may already be out the bag and people will want to know what do we do now?

For your stomach Pepto Bismal is good and don't worry about things you can't control.

by **dmtu** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 02:18:15

Facts are all you need. Let them make their own conclusion. Try to touch on the essentials from food production and harvesting to plastics, clothing, carpet, etc. If you have their attention at that point and an overhead projector go to the graphs and charts. To wrap up the presentation give em a few websites and books for more study and don't forget Chevrons site. I think the energy used to slave ratio thing would be a good leadoff to get their attention. Be ready with a bibliography and sources.

I suck at debate and I know I do, I would as soon let someone assume the role of ignorance even if I know my facts are certain. With that said there are many "facts" surrounding peak oil that may not be 100% certain. I think it would be important that hotheads and bigmouths aren't given enough ammo to entirely discredit your presentation. so stick to the items you are 100% certain of.

Most of all, I think it's important that you don't appear to be a soothsayer. Tell it like it is and let the audience figure it out.

by **MonteQuest** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 02:19:09

I do this on a regular basis and have garnered great applause for my presentation.

I focus on the history and facts that produced the two bell curves of discovery and production. (You must have a chart or greaseboard for this).Production follows discovery.

I focus on the EROEI, energy density and scalability of oil versus other energy alternatives. A gallon of gas is equal to a ton of batteries.

And I focus on the hard numbers with regard to ANWR as this is where most people see a solution. Do the math on the greaseboard in front of them, and get the answers from the audience. Use GW's 10 billion barrels estimate.

End on a positive note. I say we will eventually go from a Culture of Quanity to a Culture of Quality.

by **savethehumans** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 02:30:31

Pity we can't just show them the new PO DVD coming out in the UK. It runs--30 MINUTES! :-D

But I guess it'd be too technical. If you were talking to rurals, I'd start off by saying, "Guess what? Your traditional way of life is about to make the biggest comeback in history!" Cuz it'd be true. And it'd also answer that ever-present question, "What's in it for me?"

I'd rather talk to the Amish, myself. I could say, "Folks, you were right all along. Now, the rest of us need your help." It'd be the easiest talk I (or anyone else) could ever expect to give!

As for talking to the sheeple at this point--I'll leave that to you. You're a braver, more patient soul than I'll ever be! :lol:

by **Ardalla** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 05:08:33

I'm reminded of something that Campbell said a few months ago. Don't remember exactly, but it was something like maybe it's better that people don't know the truth. At this late date, what can they really do about it?

Should I say, "Go out and enjoy yourselves. Hard times are coming."? Is that even the truth. I don't know that for sure. In 20 years will people think back to this time and say, "Man I wish I had taken that vacation to Egypt I always wanted. Now it's too late."?

I'm not going to lecture people anymore. For one thing, I am not at all certain that what I tell them is the truth or just spin. Now I just say, "Hey, I think there is an energy crisis approaching. Watch out for it and try to prepare as best you can."

by **Doly** » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 05:33:15

What I would say depends very much on what kind of people are this crowd. Are they young, people with children, people with grandchildren? Where are they from? Do they have jobs? If yes, what kind of jobs?

As an exercise, let's suppose that Bob Gedolf gave me the mike during the Live 8 concert to give my speech. I would say something on the following line: "You've come here to have fun and to fight against poverty. Both things are now more important than ever, because there's a biiig oil crisis coming. It's going to be the seventies all over again. And you are the lucky ones that will have to turn the world into a sustainable place. Google peak oil!"

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