$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'F')rom what I saw today, the markets believe inflation will be meaningfully higher under Trump.
Bonds don't like inflation. The longer term bonds (which HATE inflation) were by far the most negative.
Also, I noticed things like silver, copper, etc. were up: possibly as a hedge against higher inflation expectations.
Also, short term doesn't mean much. Looks like the Dow had nearly a roughly 1300 point swing from the futures Tuesday night to the close of the market on Wednesday.
...
I have no idea if this higher inflation expectation makes sense. We had lots of new debt under Obama and that didn't seem to cause inflation. Can Trump actually spur stronger economic growth? We don't know if congress will pass anything he proposes. We don't know if his ideas would work, etc.
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When do you think the economy will crash?
Re: When do you think the economy will crash?
by Tanada » Thu 10 Nov 2016, 07:26:53
So long as we continue money printing Inflation is inevitable, possibly even hyper inflation.
As for President Elect Trumps tax plans they are so far as I can tell a milder form of the Reagan plan that set off a boom in USA manufacturing and employment in his first term. People around here have a tendency to forget that even in a stagnant world economy individual countries can experience growth. Note that during the last 10 years China and India have both grown considerably even as the world economy was pretty stagnant.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?
by SeaGypsy » Thu 10 Nov 2016, 07:36:48
Another way to see it is ask what if the money had not been printed, in simple terms, deflation. Take this to it's logical conclusion, the current theory prevailing is that debt numbers are insignificant next to the potential wipe out of a deflationary spiral. Of course when you are gambling in $ trillions, getting the balance is precarious.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?
by Pops » Thu 10 Nov 2016, 08:47:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;He is proposing tax cuts for the very people he ran against in his campaign," Gleckman said.
like himself, lol
A million a year tax break for each .01%er, and of course no estate tax
$7 trillion deficit increase over 10 years just from tax cuts, because he proposes no spending cuts
the Rs no longer care about deficits, keep up
forgot the link
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/09/how-trum ... turns.html
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?
by Pops » Thu 10 Nov 2016, 09:38:31
The surest way to a recession or depression is if trump starts a global trade war.
We talk all the time here about the end of JIT or some dramatic rise in the cost of shipping. Trump ran on a promise of tariffs and reduced exports (which is what tariffs bring)
Don't argue, that was his unique selling proposition.
POTUS can unilaterally impose tariffs up to 15% and probably make it stick unless congress specifically assed a law to prevent him from doing so.
POTUS can indeed rip up trade agreements unilaterally.
I've been feeling rather curmudgeonly lately, it seems we really have no idea how good we have it, we are still the second largest exporter of good and services and the beneficiary of a huge labor cost differential when we shop walmart.
Too bad we confused the verb tense in trumps speeches, he is the only one who can lead us into a hellhole because he has no clue.
We talk all the time here about the end of JIT or some dramatic rise in the cost of shipping. Trump ran on a promise of tariffs and reduced exports (which is what tariffs bring)
Don't argue, that was his unique selling proposition.
POTUS can unilaterally impose tariffs up to 15% and probably make it stick unless congress specifically assed a law to prevent him from doing so.
POTUS can indeed rip up trade agreements unilaterally.
I've been feeling rather curmudgeonly lately, it seems we really have no idea how good we have it, we are still the second largest exporter of good and services and the beneficiary of a huge labor cost differential when we shop walmart.
Too bad we confused the verb tense in trumps speeches, he is the only one who can lead us into a hellhole because he has no clue.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?
by Revi » Thu 10 Nov 2016, 09:43:01
I think this is going to do it, eventually. Obama managed to hold it up for 8 years, and now it's Trump's turn.
Let's see how he does. Can a country which uses as much oil just driving around as the Chinese use for everything actually keep going the way it does? Where is growth going to come from? We waste as much as they do for manufacturing, eating and everything. We borrow trillions to do it. Will Trump be able to hold that together? Will we each get our daily allotment of gasoline, food, etc? We'll see. There is only so far our reserve currency will take us...
It might not be Trump's fault, but he's going to be left holding the bag, unless he can stretch it out another 4 years.
Let's see how he does. Can a country which uses as much oil just driving around as the Chinese use for everything actually keep going the way it does? Where is growth going to come from? We waste as much as they do for manufacturing, eating and everything. We borrow trillions to do it. Will Trump be able to hold that together? Will we each get our daily allotment of gasoline, food, etc? We'll see. There is only so far our reserve currency will take us...
It might not be Trump's fault, but he's going to be left holding the bag, unless he can stretch it out another 4 years.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?
by Tanada » Thu 10 Nov 2016, 09:51:58
On the other side of the coin renegotiating trade deals so that they encourage manufacturing inside the borders of the USA is hardly the end of the world. What good does it do the lower income people of the country to have access to Walmart and its cheap goods if they are all only part time workers or unemployed?
Trade deals need to work for more than just the big companies, they need to work for the overwhelming majority or they are a bad deal. The whole point of trade is supposed to be everyone benefits, not just the select few. There is no reason Americans can not build all of the consumer goods Americans consume. The trade deals of the last few decades however have made it in the interest of the big companies to cease manufacturing in the USA and move their operations to foreign soil.
Do you honestly believe that a bicycle company like Schwin is unable to manufacture just enough bikes in the USA to supply the local market while maintaining their big factory in China that supplies the rest of world demand? Yes those American made bikes will be more expensive to the American consumer, but they will also creat jobs inside America for the people who make those bikes, and who operate the diners or lunch trucks that feed those workers, and the school systems that educate those workers children and so on.
The economy is a web like any ecosystem, increase jobs in the USA at any level and it has a ripple effect putting all that money through many hands between the earner and the final deposit in the financial institution. Reducing the imports of Chinese made bikes and increasing the manufacturing of American made bikes is not going to crash the world economy. The same is true of every other manufactured good we consume. Just because we can not compete on labor costs with China does not axiomatically mean we should import all of our manufactured goods from China. That is the weird Globalist world view that has been destroying the blue collar workforce in the USA for going on 50 years now.
Trade deals need to work for more than just the big companies, they need to work for the overwhelming majority or they are a bad deal. The whole point of trade is supposed to be everyone benefits, not just the select few. There is no reason Americans can not build all of the consumer goods Americans consume. The trade deals of the last few decades however have made it in the interest of the big companies to cease manufacturing in the USA and move their operations to foreign soil.
Do you honestly believe that a bicycle company like Schwin is unable to manufacture just enough bikes in the USA to supply the local market while maintaining their big factory in China that supplies the rest of world demand? Yes those American made bikes will be more expensive to the American consumer, but they will also creat jobs inside America for the people who make those bikes, and who operate the diners or lunch trucks that feed those workers, and the school systems that educate those workers children and so on.
The economy is a web like any ecosystem, increase jobs in the USA at any level and it has a ripple effect putting all that money through many hands between the earner and the final deposit in the financial institution. Reducing the imports of Chinese made bikes and increasing the manufacturing of American made bikes is not going to crash the world economy. The same is true of every other manufactured good we consume. Just because we can not compete on labor costs with China does not axiomatically mean we should import all of our manufactured goods from China. That is the weird Globalist world view that has been destroying the blue collar workforce in the USA for going on 50 years now.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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