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Reality of the next Generation

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Unread postby BiGG » Tue 12 Jul 2005, 12:48:07

I think today’s kiddies are going to be stellar scientists, industry & government leaders, doctors, engineers, lawyers, parents, and all the other good & great things their predecessors are & were, and live a life of luxury greater than anything in the present or past.

So they will be plugging their cars in at night instead of using gasoline, big deal, their children will be better off for it and talking about how we got ripped-off having to use dirty, filthy, unhealthy, environmentally unfriendly oil.

Carry on young solders of sanity & reason and don’t let any of these doomsayers get in your way.
"The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil" ............ Former Saudi Arabian oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani,
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Unread postby Tyler_JC » Tue 12 Jul 2005, 12:56:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', 'I') think today’s kiddies are going to be stellar scientists, industry & government leaders, doctors, engineers, lawyers, parents, and all the other good & great things their predecessors are & were, and live a life of luxury greater than anything in the present or past.

So they will be plugging their cars in at night instead of using gasoline, big deal, their children will be better off for it and talking about how we got ripped-off having to use dirty, filthy, unhealthy, environmentally unfriendly oil.

Carry on young solders of sanity & reason and don’t let any of these doomsayers get in your way.


OH PLEASE

Have you ignored everything on this site?? :x

And what will the human population be in 2100?
And 2200?

What are we going to feed all of these extra people?

And when do you believe oil production will begin to decline? And how quickly?

If oil peaks this decade (100% certainty in my mind) we won't have time to build your electric car utopia. Electric cars can't replace oil. Electricity is not a liquid transport fuel with uses in the plastic/agriculture industries. I'm just going to do what everyone else does on this site and ignore you. :P
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Unread postby cammo2004 » Tue 12 Jul 2005, 13:28:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', 'I') think today’s kiddies are going to be stellar scientists, industry & government leaders, doctors, engineers, lawyers, parents, and all the other good & great things their predecessors are & were, and live a life of luxury greater than anything in the present or past.

So they will be plugging their cars in at night instead of using gasoline, big deal, their children will be better off for it and talking about how we got ripped-off having to use dirty, filthy, unhealthy, environmentally unfriendly oil.

Carry on young solders of sanity & reason and don’t let any of these doomsayers get in your way.


Heh, I won't be driving. I'm 19, and I can guarantee you, I won't be caught dead in a deathtrap driving to work. I have made a commitiment to myself to always live near a railway station.
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Unread postby BiGG » Tue 12 Jul 2005, 18:00:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
OH PLEASE

Have you ignored everything on this site?? :x

And what will the human population be in 2100?
And 2200?

What are we going to feed all of these extra people?

And when do you believe oil production will begin to decline? And how quickly?

If oil peaks this decade (100% certainty in my mind) we won't have time to build your electric car utopia. Electric cars can't replace oil. Electricity is not a liquid transport fuel with uses in the plastic/agriculture industries. I'm just going to do what everyone else does on this site and ignore you. :P


You ignoring me is not a surprise as I speak about things besides doom and that’s the only thing you can understand apparently. Peak Oil means we are nearing the halfway point of known reserves leaving many decades to instill our other current & future venues for replacing it. Besides that, the current unrecoverable oil we know about will be recovered with technology advancements also quite possibly but even if it is not ………

Geothermal heat systems cut up to 70% of the fuel currently used for heating air & water & up to 50% used for air conditioning ……… the rest can be all electric.

Highly efficient fuel based, hybrid, natural gas, & electric cars and other means of transportation can cut current oil consumption to negligible amounts.

Solar, Wind, Biofuel, Nuclear, Hydrogen, etc. will easily make up the rest.

Now what was the problem again? Please don’t even think of insulting my intelligence claiming “scalability” is an issue because I can assure you that if Henry Ford could produce one new car every 49 seconds out of just one of his plants in 1930, anything relating to this will be a cakewalk in comparison to what he faced in that day.
"The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil" ............ Former Saudi Arabian oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani,
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Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 12 Jul 2005, 22:48:22

.

BiGG said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')lease don’t even think of insulting my intelligence claiming “scalability” is an issue because I can assure you that if could produce one new car every 49 seconds out of just one of his plants in 1930, anything relating to this will be a cakewalk in comparison to what he faced in that day.


Henry Ford’s factories used about 21 barrels of oil to produce a Model A. Amazing, even the people on this board “don’t get it”.

.
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Unread postby BiGG » Tue 12 Jul 2005, 23:05:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '.')

Henry Ford’s factories used about 21 barrels of oil to produce a Model A. Amazing, even the people on this board “don’t get it”.

.



I don’t think I’m the one “not getting it” here. That plant of Henry Ford’s in question also had its own “Soybean Conversion Plant turning Soybeans into Plastic Parts” and again, that was 1930.

Technology has moved forward a pinch in the last 8 decades also, maybe its time you caught up with it.
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Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 12 Jul 2005, 23:12:44

.

It takes 10 calories from oil to produce 1 calorie of food. Like I said “they just don’t get it”.

.
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Unread postby BiGG » Tue 12 Jul 2005, 23:34:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '.')

It takes 10 calories from oil to produce 1 calorie of food. Like I said “they just don’t get it”.

.


Unfortunately for you yet again, you are the one that just “doesn’t get it”. Let me quote Henry Ford again to show just how much of a clue you don’t have ……..

"Henry Ford told a New York Times reporter that ethyl alcohol was "the fuel of the future" in 1925 = There's enough alcohol in one year's yield of an acre of potatoes to drive the machinery necessary to cultivate the fields for a hundred years."

See, not so much of a drop of oil is needed here for your little equation!

Wanna look at some other interesting history? Start with “By 1860, thousands of distilleries churned out at least 90 million gallons of alcohol per year” or ………

“By one 1906 account, some 72,000 German distilleries operated, of which 57,000 were small farm "Materialbrennereien" stills producing a total of 27 million gallons.47 Another account, from 1914, put the number at 6,000 distilleries producing 66 million gallons of alcohol per year……”
"The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil" ............ Former Saudi Arabian oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani,
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Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 12 Jul 2005, 23:55:43

.

BiGG said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here's enough alcohol in one year's yield of an acre of potatoes to drive the machinery necessary to cultivate the fields for a hundred years."


The ERORI on ethyl alcohol is about 1.01. You would be better off eating the potatoes and then using a hoe!

.
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Unread postby BiGG » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 00:15:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '.')

The ERORI on ethyl alcohol is about 1.01. You would be better off eating the potatoes and then using a hoe!

.


What are the EROEI numbers for everything involved in the process? Does EROEI matter if nuclear, solar, wind, methane is used for processing netting usable fuel? I’ll answer that for you, no it doesn’t.

Ethanol production only uses the corn/grain etc. starch, the protein, minerals, fat and fiber are concentrated during the production process to produce a highly valued and nutritious livestock feed. The majority of feed is then dried and sold as Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS). However, approximately 20-25% of the feed is shipped wet locally, reducing energy input costs and providing another market for producers.

So what’s the EROEI now that we have ethanol & feedstock + cow/swine/poultry shit that we can use for making electricity out of the methane gas before spreading it on the fields for stink-free natural fertilizer?
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Unread postby CarlinsDarlin » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 07:48:02

Do me a favor, BiGG, and either stay on topic or go open up your own thread. This thread is about children and their futures, not Model A's, Henry Ford, EROEI, or plug in cars. Quit hijacking threads, please.
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Unread postby BiGG » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 09:12:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarlinsDarlin', 'D')o me a favor, BiGG, and either stay on topic or go open up your own thread. This thread is about children and their futures, not Model A's, Henry Ford, EROEI, or plug in cars. Quit hijacking threads, please.
Kathy


Stop your pathetic little drama queen whining sweetie. There’s rarely a thread on any board here that doesn’t evolve as it goes in the first place, and everything I’m talking about IS their future you numbskull. You whining about me hijacking this thread has nothing to do with their future so take your own advice and think a little more before opening your mouth next time.
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Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 09:52:13

.

When faced with the fragility of their own mortality, some people will escape to any level of ignorance and denial, to maintain their delusion of continuous. This can be regarded as a form of bio-cognitive insanity to which the species is highly susceptible. This translation to a fictitious dimension, produces a negative feed back state that reduces the individual’s ability to cope with the situation that produced the delusion in the first place. It is contradictive to one our most basic biological imperatives. Survival!
.
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Unread postby BiGG » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 10:04:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '.')

When faced with the fragility of their own mortality, some people will escape to any level of ignorance and denial, to maintain their delusion of continuous. This can be regarded as a form of bio-cognitive insanity to which the species is highly susceptible. This translation to a fictitious dimension, produces a negative feed back state that reduces the individual’s ability to cope with the situation that produced the delusion in the first place. It is contradictive to one our most basic biological imperatives. Survival!
.


So stop with all the” ignorance & denial” and learn something starting with reality……….. like how the kiddies will be plugging in their cars, or filling them with natural gas, hydrogen, oil derived from coal, and a host of other options so they can get work in the morning. Yawn!

Do you have another non-issue?
"The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil" ............ Former Saudi Arabian oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani,
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Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 10:23:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o you have another non-issue?


I think that you mind set is more than adequate to fill that requirement
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Unread postby BiGG » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 13:26:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarlinsDarlin', '
')
As for you, BiGG. My husband is the only one who I allow to call me sweetie. Not some driveling idiot such as yourself, certainly. And as for my being a numbskull, I would imagine a poll of members would more likely vote you into that category.

I will refrain from throwing further sticks and stones, as it were. Besides, I'd hate to see you choke yourself on the end of your chain trying to catch one of the sticks.
Bite my ass.



Oh! I see how this works! You whine like a pathetic Girl Scout about me “hijacking” this thread and when I show you to be clueless & complaining about nothing considering my conversation was clearly on topic, you turn around and hijack the thread yourself with a flame-a-thon! How quaint …….. and a nasty [expletive] with a filthy mouth at that! Go figure!

If you wanna play a battle of wits I will be more than happy to accommodate you, but you need to start another thread and stop hijacking this one ……k sweetheart?

(edited for profanity- KiddieKorral)
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Unread postby FoxV » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 15:31:05

well in an attempt to stay on topic, I understand what you're saying Bigg, and I believe in the long term you are correct. I think though you have the wrong generation to place your hopes on. Just the current economic situation alone is enough to have today's kiddies more likely to learn the fine art of dumpster diving then learning fine art.

In order for the Utopia you're suggesting to happen, everything must operate with perfect harmony. However what we have these days is mounting crisis' on all fronts

Just for kicks, here's a list of crisis' that are building steam
Global economic collapse (US bubbles)
Peak Oil
Water depletion (Africa and China aquifers depleted)
Commodities Depletion (supply issues already starting)
Soil Depletion
Global warming

The reality you are proposing can not happen with 6 billion people on this planet let alone with continued 2% growth. Surely even in your optimism you must see that between now and utopia, something has to give.
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Unread postby Jack » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 18:41:49

This isn't a "current event" and the discussion is more appropriate for the open discussion forum.

On that basis, this thread has been moved to "open discussion".
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Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 18:59:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', '
')Stop your pathetic little drama queen whining sweetie.
There, RiverRat. I bet you dollars to donuts that this thread had a really big (no pun intended) uptick in hits after this went down. :-D
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Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 20:18:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', 'I') think today’s kiddies are going to be stellar scientists, industry & government leaders, doctors, engineers, lawyers, parents, and all the other good & great things their predecessors are & were, and live a life of luxury greater than anything in the present or past.

So they will be plugging their cars in at night instead of using gasoline, big deal, their children will be better off for it and talking about how we got ripped-off having to use dirty, filthy, unhealthy, environmentally unfriendly oil.

Carry on young solders of sanity & reason and don’t let any of these doomsayers get in your way.


lol
Plugging in their cars using what primary sources and how long will they last?

I appreciate your optimism, but my impression is that wishful thinking is a form of denial.

I was very impressed with the physics article Matt Savinar provided at LATOC under his 'alternatives' section which puts into great perspective the long term sources of energy available to the Earth's population.
Here's the reference Matt provided: http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html

Have you read that one, Bigg?

Excerpt (example):
"* Coal. The largest fossil fuel resource available in the US is coal. The energy content of the current US reserve is about 5667 Q. If demand remains frozen at the current rate of consumption, the coal reserve will indeed last roughly 250 years.2 That prediction assumes equal use of all grades of coal, from anthracite to lignite. Population growth alone reduces the calculated lifetime to some 90−120 years (see figure 4).

Any new uses of coal would further reduce the supply.
The Fischer−Tropsch process has been used to convert coal to gasoline motor fuel in South Africa for decades, for example. The process requires that one carbon atom of coal be sacrificed to generate at least two hydrogen atoms, and it takes energy to decompose water to make that hydrogen. As a result, the process consumes 2 Q of coal to generate 1 Q of motor fuel. Hydrogen production would require an even greater consumption of coal. The use of coal for conversion to other fuels would quickly reduce the lifetime of the US coal base to less than a human lifespan (see figure 4)."

Please see the other primary sources of energy listed in that article, their estimated amounts, availability, and what scientists will have to work with and struggle with like all the rest of us to achieve the utopia future you believe will be.

Signed,
A Chemist..

...presently employed at this time, but with the sad shape the chemical industry is in at this time due to the higher prices of natural gas and oil, I wouldn't want to be looking for a job as a chemist right now.
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