[kenberthiaume]

Someone forgot to tell them about peak oil. I'll try to attach some links tomorrow. Huge undertaking. Anyone know how it's going?

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kenberthiaume', 'S')omeone forgot to tell them about peak oil. I'll try to attach some links tomorrow. Huge undertaking. Anyone know how it's going?

[toolpush]

Now this story begs the question, "Iraq and who's army?"
BTW by the time they are talking about producing all this oil, where will the Iraqi borders lie. Maybe they can snitch a bit from Iran to make up the loss of Kurdistan. Or if that doesn't work, a bit Kuwait. Hang on both of those have been tried before.
I am sure they ill think of something.

[kenberthiaume]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kenberthiaume', 'S')omeone forgot to tell them about peak oil. I'll try to attach some links tomorrow. Huge undertaking. Anyone know how it's going?

[westexas]

Recent net exports from Iraq (total petroleum liquids + other liquids, EIA, mbpd):

2008: 1.8
2009: 1.8
2010: 1.8
2011: 1.9
2012: 2.3
2013: 2.3

Combined net exports from the Top 33 net exporters in 2005 (including Iraq) fell from 46 mbpd in 2005 to 43 mbpd in 2013.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kenberthiaume', 'S')omeone forgot to tell them about peak oil. I'll try to attach some links tomorrow. Huge undertaking. Anyone know how it's going?

[ROCKMAN]

As westexas knows so well: In the oil patch there is the plan. And then there's what actually happens. LOL

[westexas]

Rock,

Iraq has fallen a little short of a scenario outlined in an Oil Drum Post, which showed them hitting 8 mbpd in 2013, on their way to 12 mbpd in 2016:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6101

[Paulo1]

I am planning to win the 649 lottery this weekend. Beer on me if you're not Muslim.

Paulo

[kenberthiaume]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kenberthiaume', 'S')omeone forgot to tell them about peak oil. I'll try to attach some links tomorrow. Huge undertaking. Anyone know how it's going?

[kenberthiaume]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('westexas', 'R')ecent net exports from Iraq (total petroleum liquids + other liquids, EIA, mbpd):

2008: 1.8
2009: 1.8
2010: 1.8
2011: 1.9
2012: 2.3
2013: 2.3

Combined net exports from the Top 33 net exporters in 2005 (including Iraq) fell from 46 mbpd in 2005 to 43 mbpd in 2013.

[westexas]

So Far, Global Net Exports of Oil Peaked in 2005

Because of the way that we define net exports, we have to deal in terms of total petroleum liquids (plus other liquids for the EIA data set).

Some definitions:

Global Net Exports (GNE) = Combined net exports from (2005) Top 33 net oil exporters, total petroleum liquids + other liquids (EIA), which accounted for about 99% of total global net exports of oil in 2005

Available Net Exports (ANE) = GNE less Chindia’s Net Imports (CNI)


CNE = Cumulative Net Exports (for a given time period)

ECI (Export Capacity Index) Ratio = Ratio of production to consumption

GNE/CNI Ratio is analogous to the ECI Ratio

Six Country Case History. The Six Country Case History consists of the major net oil exporters (net exports of 100,000 bpd or more) that hit or approached zero net exports from 1980 to 2010, excluding China. China, like the US, became a net importer prior to a production peak, because of a rapid rate of increase in consumption. Combined production from the Six Countries virtually stopped increasing in 1995, showing only a 2% increase from 1995 to 1999.

The following chart shows the normalized values for production, ECI Ratio, net exports and remaining post-1995 CNE (Cumulative Net Exports) by year (1995 values = 100%).



Note that even as production increased slightly from 1995 to 1999 (by 2%), net exports fell, because of rising consumption, as illustrated by the decline in the ECI Ratio. And note that even as production increased from 1995 to 1999, remaining post-1995 CNE fell by 54%.

Estimated Six Country post-1995 CNE were about 9.0 Gb (billion barrels) based on the 1995 to 2002 rate of decline in their ECI ratio. Actual post-1995 CNE were 7.3 Gb.

The key point is that a declining ECI Ratio corresponded to a rapid rate of depletion in remaining CNE, and even as Six Country production rose from 1995 to 1999, the rate of depletion in remaining post-1995 CNE accelerated, from 15%/year in 1996 to 26%/year in 1999.

Global Net Exports of oil (GNE). GNE, the combined net exports from the top 33 net exporters in 2005, fell from about 46 mbpd (million barrels per day) in 2005 to about 44 mbpd in 2012. Preliminary 2013 data show that GNE in 2013 fell to 43 mbpd. Combined production from the top 33 net exporters in 2005 rose slightly from 2005 to 2013, but because consumption increased faster than production, net exports fell, as evidenced by the decline in the ECI Ratio.

The following chart shows the normalized values for production, ECI Ratio, net exports and estimated remaining post-2005 CNE (Cumulative Net Exports) by year (2005 values = 100%).



Based on the 2005 to 2012 rate of decline in the Top 33 ECI Ratio, I estimate that remaining post-2005 Global CNE fell by about 21% by the end of 2012. As noted above, this methodology was too optimistic for the Six Country Case History, in regard to estimating post-1995 CNE.

Available Net Exports of oil (ANE). ANE are defined as Global Net Exports of oil (GNE) less the Chindia region's (China + India’s) net imports (CNI). ANE, the volume of GNE available to importers other than China and India, fell from 41 mbpd in 2005 to 35 mbpd in 2012. Based on the preliminary 2013 data, ANE fell to 34 mbpd in 2013.

[kenberthiaume]

The site I saw already had contracts and how much each vendor would get. Mostly it was a fixed cost per barrel produced.

So who comes up with the capital equipment in the first place? Who pays for it? Is that on Iraq or the vendor? Is the vendor paid back from oil sales? If I were a vendor, I'd be reluctant about putting billions in equipment in Iraq...the country could go under and then you'd be out of luck.

Anyway, some of the expansion required water flooding...which is much more capital intensive. And thus....who knows, maybe they'll delay that.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/ ... D520130809

this says at one point it was 12m bpd by 2017. Postponed to 9m by 2020.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/williampent ... n-in-iraq/

“There were so many fields, and the first one he worked on was East Baghdad since he was living just west of the field. There were 1,100 barrels coming out of the field, and that was it. He started looking at all the data, and there were 16 billion barrels sitting under his feet. The field was an anticlinal structure 80 kilometers long and 15 kilometers wide and had 10 pays, Cretaceous through Miocene. The field could produce a million barrels a day, but the existing infrastructure could only accommodate 25,000 barrels.

After reviewing data for numerous fields and conferring with Iraqi engineers, he concluded the total amount of oil and natural gas reserves in Iraq had been vastly underestimated. He estimated with the data he had that there were 230 billion barrels for the 84 fields at the time. Since then there are a few new fields recently discovered (9-14 BBO—9 TCFG) in the Kurdish region. He started looking at natural gas reserves, especially Akkas field in the Western Desert and unexplored regions of Kurdistan, and calculated almost 200-plus trillion cubic feet (TCFG) of reserves. Other geologists put the figure closer to 350 TCFG. Most of the current gas is being flared off.

He looked at the old figures (115 BBO and 100 TCFG) and asked Iraqi engineers and Oil Ministry officials what these figures were, and they said they just gave them out from years ago. They were told to say that, and no one knew where the numbers originated. Since then, Iraq has revised its estimate upward to 150 BBO. There is good reason to believe that there is even more.

Yeah, they've "peaked".

[DesuMaiden]

Iraq has about 90 billion barrels of recoverable oil, which might sound like a lot of oil, but considering that the world consumes 90 million barrels of oil everyday that isn't really that much oil. Iraq's recoverable oil reserves will last for 1000 days for the entire world's oil consumption, which is about 2 to 3 years. In reality, there really isn't that much oil in Iraq.

[kenberthiaume]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'I')raq has about 90 billion barrels of recoverable oil, which might sound like a lot of oil, but considering that the world consumes 90 million barrels of oil everyday that isn't really that much oil. Iraq's recoverable oil reserves will last for 1000 days for the entire world's oil consumption, which is about 2 to 3 years. In reality, there really isn't that much oil in Iraq.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kenberthiaume', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'I')raq has about 90 billion barrels of recoverable oil, which might sound like a lot of oil, but considering that the world consumes 90 million barrels of oil everyday that isn't really that much oil. Iraq's recoverable oil reserves will last for 1000 days for the entire world's oil consumption, which is about 2 to 3 years. In reality, there really isn't that much oil in Iraq.

[Tanada]

The problem with any political pronouncement is first everything takes time, and second political decisions often change much faster than the physical world takes to change. All else being equal it would still take Iraq a number of years to get from their current around 4.7 MM/bbl/d to the 7 MM/bbl/d you see freely tossed around in the media.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t a meeting in Baghdad on Wednesday, Minister Jabar Ali al-Luaibi [Allibi] told OPEC Secretary General, HE Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo:

“Your visit comes at a time when Iraq is working hard to develop its oil industry, while at the same time fighting terrorism and achieving victories against ISIS in Mosul and other places in Iraq.”

HE Al-Luiebi also reiterated Iraq’s support to OPEC in the current oil market environment. He pledged that Iraq would continue to back the OPEC Secretariat and work together with Member Countries, as well as non-OPEC countries, to help stabilize and bring balance to the oil market.

Thanking HE Al-Luiebi for his welcome, HE Mohammad Barkindo expressed his happiness to visit Iraq, the birth place of the OPEC and the cradle of ancient civilizations. He stated that Iraq has played, and continues to play an important role alongside other Member Countries in helping achieve the stability that all producers, as well as consumers, desire.

In speaking about the current oil market, HE Mohammad Barkindo said that between June 2014 and January 2016 the OPEC Reference Basket price fell by 80%. It is, he added, the largest percentage fall in the six cycles of sharp price declines that have been observed over the past three decades.

HE Mohammad Barkindo also stressed that it was important to recognize that the current oil cycle has led to a dramatic drop off in oil market investments. He said that global exploration and production spending fell by around 26% in 2015 and a further 22% drop is anticipated this year, which overall equates to over $300 billion.

Later in the day, HE Barkindo met with the leader of the National Alliance, the largest Iraqi parliamentary bloc, and head of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) Ammar Al-Hakim.

The Secretary General will hold further talks with Prime Minister of Iraq, Dr. Haider Al-Abadi, on Wednesday and pay a courtesy call on the President of Iraq, Dr. Fuad Masum.

Secretary General Barkindo is expected to visit Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates early November in continuation of the extensive consultations post Algiers Accord.

(Source: OPEC)

[Subjectivist]

The ELM takes two big bites out f Iraqs exports even if they manage to some day produce seven million barrels they won't be exporting anything near that much. They have a growing population that wants all the typical western oil consuming devices. On top of that they are trying to double or more the power in their electrical grid and the bulk of that generating capacity burns oil, not coal, with natural gas for peaking. The mosul dam is on the verge of failure but they need the power so not a whole lot is being done to decomission it.

Bottom line, sounds like the current prices are not enough incentive for them to keep expanding production.