Will the US suffer first if PO hits?

by **energyaddict** » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 12:30:26

A few weeks ago I used to think that the US will be in a good position if there is a supply shortfall in crude oil - but I changed my mind during the last days. Here is why: The US has a gap in refining capacity, so the crude has to be refined elsewhere (Europe, Asia, South America). If there is a shortfall in supply, would the gouvernments over there allow the destillates to be exported while the own people wait in gas lines or face brown-outs? I do not think so...

They will keep their supplies at home!

by **LadyRuby** » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 12:46:35

I have to think that the wealthier western nations will be better off. As oil gets more expensive, the demand (by those who can least afford it) should taper off, leaving more available to the western countries...

by **aahala** » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 12:49:58

Refining capacity or its limits will not have much effect if there isn't the
supply to process.

Economic damage comes if the underlining demand is significantly greater
than the supply. We can imagine this point will first occur anywhere along the world production curve -- production could be increasing, declining or
remaining constant.

Who would be hurt first might not be the US, as we have the SPR.

by **DriveElectric** » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 12:55:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('energyaddict', ' ')If there is a shortfall in supply, would the gouvernments over there allow the destillates to be exported while the own people wait in gas lines or face brown-outs? I do not think so...

They will keep their supplies at home!

by **gt1370a** » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 13:21:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'I') have to think that the wealthier western nations will be better off. As oil gets more expensive, the demand (by those who can least afford it) should taper off, leaving more available to the western countries...

by **Pablo2079** » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 14:19:44

The only refinery issues I think might pop up would be the larger percentage of available crude being Heavy Sour. It takes time and capital for the refineries to shift over to a different feedstock. Not to say that it won't be done, but there will be a delay.

by **killJOY** » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 15:49:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f there is a shortfall in supply, would the gouvernments over there allow the destillates to be exported while the own people wait in gas lines or face brown-outs? I do not think so...

by **Trab** » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 16:14:17

Interestingly enough, Indonesia's national gas company is calliing for rationing amind fuel shortages... and Indonesia is an OPEC member.

Meanwhile, here in the US, the price keeps going up, but the supply doesn't seem to be in any danger of vanishing... yet.

by **MacG** » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 17:21:20

Will the US suffer first? Bloody difficult to tell. It is like measuring temperature differences in hell. (Hehe, ryhme!).

This is very (as in VERY!) thin ice. Detailed predicions are just about the nastiest kind of business one can engage in.

*Taking deep breath - jumping in ice cold water*

Although I expect a pretty synchronous development, I dont think the US will be first. Some poor countries will be a couple of weeks or months before the US and western Europe. I mean, look, the US is pulling of a really neat stunt right now. They dont make anything useful who others want to buy, still they manage to run a consumption binge without historic precedence.

Sooner or later people all over the place will realise that they are beeing buggered without consent (or lubricant) and things will go nasty for the US, so the US will propably not go first, but they will go worst (ryhme AGAIN!)

by **FatherOfTwo** » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 17:25:33

Look at what is already happening.
Indonesia, for example, is trying to reduce fuel use and they aren't doing it out of the goodness of their heart.
Any signs of reduced fuel use in the US? Nope.

by **kelee877** » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 17:25:55

Counrtries are already suffering..especially Africa..they have no need for oil..their country has been explotied for generations..first as slaves..now their diamond mines..if any country will survive peak oil it would be Africa..God bless them...

by **MacG** » Wed 13 Jul 2005, 17:34:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', 'L')ook at what is already happening.
Indonesia, for example, is trying to reduce fuel use and they aren't doing it out of the goodness of their heart.
Any signs of reduced fuel use in the US? Nope.

Will the US suffer first if PO hits?

Will the US suffer first if PO hits?

Re: Will the US suffer first if PO hits?

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