[kublikhan]

The first to feel the squeeze will not be Saudi citizens but foreign workers in SA. They are feeling the pinch even now:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n early March, the Ministry of Labour announced that within six months foreigners would be banned from selling and maintaining mobile phones and accessories for them, in an effort to keep open more jobs for Saudi citizens. So Musa became one of hundreds of thousands of foreign workers in Saudi Arabia who may lose their jobs and be sent back to their home countries this year, as low oil prices slow the kingdom's economy and prompt the government to restrict employment opportunities for expatriates.

Millions of foreigners from south Asia, southeast Asia and elsewhere flocked to work in Saudi Arabia during the economic boom of the past decade, filling relatively low-paid posts in the oil industry, construction and services as well as many middle-management and professional positions. Foreigners accounted for 10.1 million of the total population of 30.8 million. The inflow of people may now go into reverse. Saudi economic growth is slowing as low oil prices produce a state budget deficit that totaled nearly $100 billion last year, forcing the government into spending cuts.

Labor rules make it hard and costly to fire Saudi citizens, layoffs in the early stages of a downturn tend to hit foreigners almost exclusively. Meanwhile the government, lacking the cash to create public sector jobs for Saudis as freely as before, and worried that the official unemployment rate of 11.5 percent among them could rise, is intervening more heavily in the labor market to push Saudis into jobs previously held by foreigners. A top executive at a major Saudi company told Reuters in January that he wouldn’t be surprised if one million foreigners had to leave the kingdom by the end of this year. "The economic changes have started to pressure the labor market, and this has triggered the start of the migration of a large segment of foreign workers." "Declining corporate profitability has made the foreign workforce a target for managements seeking to cut fixed financial obligations.”

CONSTRUCTION
So far, layoffs have been concentrated in the construction sector, which analysts estimate employs around 45 percent of foreigners. Hit by shrinking state contracts and delays in payments owed to them by the government, construction firms have been laying off tens of thousands of people since last year. Job losses among foreigners look likely to spread to other sectors, partly because of government policy. “The labor ministry targets aim to create jobs for around 1.3 million Saudis...There are plans for gradual nationalization of other sectors such as taxis, travel and tourism, real estate, jewelry and vegetable markets.”

Displaced foreign workers could try to find jobs in other sectors. But it will be hard for many do so in a slowing economy, and many lack training for skilled jobs. If they cannot find a company to sponsor a work visa for them, they will have to leave the country within about 90 days. Even some highly paid foreign professionals are considering leaving the kingdom because they see fewer opportunities as the flow of oil money shrinks.