PeakOil is You
Resurrection: Peak Oil doesn’t equal energy scarcity
by JohnDenver » Tue 12 Jul 2005, 07:18:38
...(Duplicate post, please delete)
Last edited by JohnDenver on Tue 12 Jul 2005, 07:21:14, edited 1 time in total.
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by Doly » Tue 12 Jul 2005, 07:20:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', '
')Complexity is all around us, it's only possible because of cheap energy. When there is no more cheap energy, anything that relies on massive complexity is on very shaky legs.
')Complexity is all around us, it's only possible because of cheap energy. When there is no more cheap energy, anything that relies on massive complexity is on very shaky legs.
I really can't see why complexity is supposed to equal cheap energy. Pre-industrial society looks pretty complex to me. We may be even more complex, but I'd blame it as much on easy comms as on easy transport.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', '
')Coal mining is definitely in this category.
Considering that it was pre-industrial societies who started coal mining, I think it's quite definitely not too complex.
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by pip » Tue 12 Jul 2005, 11:20:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', '
')Not to mention, most of these critical components ARENT MADE HERE IN THE USA any more.
')Not to mention, most of these critical components ARENT MADE HERE IN THE USA any more.
Critical components are actually likely to still be made in the US. The only other possibilities are Europe or Japan.
At least that's been my experience when quoting engineered equipment for the refining industry.
The road goes on forever and the party never ends - REK
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by Leanan » Tue 12 Jul 2005, 12:34:24
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ifficult? – yes. Impossible? Most certainly not.
I agree with you there. If we start right now, we can probably do it. But I don't think we'll start right now. I much fear we will wait until it's too late.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')But since peak oil doesn’t equal no oil, by no means is the energy drop necessarily permanent.
There's a small, outside chance that we'll find a new source of energy that's even more concentrated than oil. Maybe there will be a miraculous cold fusion breakthrough. Or someone will discover Tesla's secret. But if we are forced to return to lower-EROEI sources like coal or wood, peak oil is peak energy.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')b) you would have to show that there would be no political will to do it (which I think is ridiculous).
Actually, I think this is closest to my view of the future. Though it's more a matter of money than political will. We won't be able to afford it. We're already so deeply in debt that if it weren't for the petrodollar, we'd be facing an Argentina-style economic crisis.
So much of our infrastructure, even government-built infrastructure, was built, not for the betterment of the citizens, but in order to make money for a few individuals or companies. Roads built so GM could sell cars, airports built so PanAm could take off, people herded onto the Internet for the benefit of e-commerce, etc. If there's no money to be made, it won't happen. Or it will happen much more slowly.
Goodstein does thermodynamic analyses of all the alternatives. He points out that a big problem we'll be facing is entropy. If we convert coal to liquid fuel, we'll lose 3/4 of the energy of coal in the process. It takes four BTUs of coal to produce one BTU of liquid fuel. So we're facing something of an uphill battle.
However, his calculations do show that it's theoretically possible to replace all the energy we use today. We, as in the U.S. We'd have to build 10,000 nuclear power plants, each as large as modern engineering allows. There are currently about 500 nuclear plants in the world, so this would be a huge scale-up.
Ten thousand power plants. That's 200 in each state. Do you really think we could afford that? Would we be able to get enough concrete and steel and oil to do it?
And that's just the U.S. Even if we can afford it, much of the rest of the world won't be able to. So energy production would inevitably drop.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'c')) the economy would have to be so shattered and hobbled from peaking oil that the bottlenecks and constraints are insurmountable (I just don't see this)
This is also a possibility. A lot of financial talking heads who don't believe in peak oil are worried that we're on the brink of disaster.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s for your comment about the electricity infrastructure failing, I don’t know where you get that from...the only thing I can think of is you are seeing the blackout in the NE of NA in 2003 as a sign of things to come.
