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Re: Don’t bet on Russia capping oil output

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 03 Oct 2016, 20:38:39

Yep, the oil drum is a real useful time-capsule and a cautionary tale for those who are all too cocky about their predictions (you know who you are).
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Don’t bet on Russia capping oil output

Unread postby GHung » Mon 03 Oct 2016, 22:39:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', 'B')REAKING NEWS UPDATE: U.S. suspends diplomatic contacts with Russia


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]
U.S. breaks off diplomatic talks with Russia to end bloodshed in Syria

The Obama administration made good on an ultimatum Monday and withdrew its cooperation with Russia over Syria, while Moscow suspended a key nuclear weapons treaty it had signed with Washington more than a decade ago.

With the two governments signaling their anger at each other, U.S.-Russia ties hit one of their lowest points since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.

Exasperated over relentless Russian and Syrian airstrikes on the battered city of Aleppo, Washington announced it was breaking off bilateral talks with Russia over Syria's fate and canceling plans to share military intelligence and operations-related information with Moscow.

"This is not a decision that was taken lightly," State Department spokesman John Kirby said in a statement.....

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast ... story.html
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Re: Don’t bet on Russia capping oil output

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 03 Oct 2016, 23:10:53

Ghung - Dang, the US and Russia can't agree on the pathway to a new world order??? Well f*ck...just lost a lunch bet! What next...the Israelis and Palestinians stop being buddies? LOL.
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Re: Don’t bet on Russia capping oil output

Unread postby dissident » Mon 03 Oct 2016, 23:26:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'G')hung - Dang, the US and Russia can't agree on the pathway to a new world order??? Well f*ck...just lost a lunch bet! What next...the Israelis and Palestinians stop being buddies? LOL.


Israelis and Palestinians have a bloody history. Where is there any similar history between Russia and the USA? Cold war hate propaganda does not form an equivalence with a bloody history. The current hate propaganda about Aleppo doesn't either.

http://www.voltairenet.org/article169488.html
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Re: Don’t bet on Russia capping oil output

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 04 Oct 2016, 08:32:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'G')hung - Dang, the US and Russia can't agree on the pathway to a new world order??? Well f*ck...just lost a lunch bet! What next...the Israelis and Palestinians stop being buddies? LOL.


Israelis and Palestinians have a bloody history. Where is there any similar history between Russia and the USA? Cold war hate propaganda does not form an equivalence with a bloody history. The current hate propaganda about Aleppo doesn't either.

http://www.voltairenet.org/article169488.html


During 1919-1920 the USA sent troops to northern Russia to aid the "White Army" or the Republicans that was fighting the "Red Army" of the Communist in the center of the country and the "Black Army" of the Anarchists fighting in the southern area.

Lenin. Trotsky and Stalin to name a few leaders never forgot nor forgave those actions by the UK and USA. Russia is nearly the only country in Europe where American military personnel came under arms but did not succeed in dominating the country for a generation or more. I don't know how Putin feels about it, but I doubt he has warm fuzzy feelings towards the USA.
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Re: Don’t bet on Russia capping oil output

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 04 Oct 2016, 09:19:13

The cold war is supposed to be over. Putin didn't get the memo and stokes the fires in order to accumulate power. Meanwhile, most people here run defense for the guy, because "western hegemony".
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Re: Don’t bet on Russia capping oil output

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 04 Oct 2016, 14:52:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'T')he cold war is supposed to be over. Putin didn't get the memo and stokes the fires in order to accumulate power. Meanwhile, most people here run defense for the guy, because "western hegemony".


"most people" is a huge overstatement. A few, at best, are "pro" Putin.

I am certainly not pro-Putin, but I am extremely ANTI wish-casting. Which is what I see a lot of NATO side trolls doing, repeatedly. Putin is most certainly an enemy of what I refer to as the Atlantic Empire (a kinda loose net of NATO & EU affiliations); and rightly so, as Russian national interests are, for the most part, very much in opposition of the Atlanticist's imperial interests.

The problem is that people seem desperate to underestimate the capabilities that Putin brings to the table; and he is an exceptional strategist, both military and economic; and is able to turn just about any circumstance into enhanced power for himself and improved self reliance for Russia. That underestimation and downplaying of Russia works hugely to the benefit of Putin. The second bit of wishcasting is this idiotic notion that Putin's replacement will come from the Western loyal "liberast" faction as they are called. Nothing could be further from the truth; those guys barely move 5% of the population, and they are doing everything in their power to reduce that number even further as we speak. No, Putin's eventual replacement will either be a Western ambivalent technocrat, or a communist hot head who thinks it would be a great idea to nuke every city allied with NATO, just for fun.

As to the "cold war"?? It never ended. We had a chance to end it, but instead of ending it, we looted the crud out of Russia, and let her people experience the possibility of strategic food insecurity, aka, hunger. By doing so, we guaranteed that Russia would remain our useful enemy for the remainder of the 21st century.
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Re: Don’t bet on Russia capping oil output

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 04 Oct 2016, 15:36:05

The Secret Agent R11 and dissident were probably cheering on this news....at least someone has the spine to kick out SpyWareSoft. And who wouldn't love a guy that says "renewables" are a pile of steaming shit. Thats the thing with Putin, ...it appears he has a spine, while we are left with the ennui2's and Rock Puppets types..."how far do I bend over, Sir?".

Putin Bans Bill Gates And Microsoft From Russia - Your News Wire
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5 days ago - Russian President Vladimir Putin has banned Microsoft products from Russia and placed Bill Gates on a Federal Security Service watchlist. Citing “concerns over security and reliability,” Putin has ordered the removal of Microsoft software to begin immediately.
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Re: Don’t bet on Russia capping oil output

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 04 Oct 2016, 16:09:34

??? See this is the problem with framing everything in a good vs evil context.

Banning MS products is simply a Russian compensation for sanctions in order to keep their foreign exchange balances relatively even. Because of the way WTO rules are written, they can't just say, "We're banning MS products in order to compensate for artificial forex pressures created by Western sanctions."

The problem with Western response, eg, sanctions, is that it EMPOWERS Putin to pick winners and losers, giving him excuses to do things like the above. There's nothing essential about MS products, they're just easier to go with than open source or Russian specific alternatives; all of which will type up a letter or run a database query just fine.
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Re: Don’t bet on Russia capping oil output

Unread postby dissident » Tue 04 Oct 2016, 17:07:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'G')hung - Dang, the US and Russia can't agree on the pathway to a new world order??? Well f*ck...just lost a lunch bet! What next...the Israelis and Palestinians stop being buddies? LOL.


Israelis and Palestinians have a bloody history. Where is there any similar history between Russia and the USA? Cold war hate propaganda does not form an equivalence with a bloody history. The current hate propaganda about Aleppo doesn't either.

http://www.voltairenet.org/article169488.html


During 1919-1920 the USA sent troops to northern Russia to aid the "White Army" or the Republicans that was fighting the "Red Army" of the Communist in the center of the country and the "Black Army" of the Anarchists fighting in the southern area.

Lenin. Trotsky and Stalin to name a few leaders never forgot nor forgave those actions by the UK and USA. Russia is nearly the only country in Europe where American military personnel came under arms but did not succeed in dominating the country for a generation or more. I don't know how Putin feels about it, but I doubt he has warm fuzzy feelings towards the USA.


Sorry but you are off by a long shot. This invasion in support of the whites is barely remembered in Russia. The Americans did not slaughter any villages during this failed adventure. It would be like saying that Americans are still bitter at Canada for the burning of Washington and the White House in 1814 when Canada was still part of the British Empire. The feelings of Trotsky and Lenin are utterly irrelevant in modern Russia. Most Russians do not remember the Bolsheviks fondly and the view of Stalin is ambivalent. He actually was not a bad war manager but the rest of his record is blood soaked vis a vis Russians and other ethnic groups. Again, his views on the invasion in the wake of the 1917 Revolution are irrelevant and certainly do not shape Putin's perceptions.

It is the USA 100% of the time that is trying to instigate conflict with Russia and has a hate hard on for it. It is rather strange why this hate is not mirrored in Russia itself.
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Re: Don’t bet on Russia capping oil output

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 04 Oct 2016, 19:40:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')e have Russia surrounded with our military bases.


Oh my gosh, there could be a war instead of the usual kabuki theatre designed to fool the suckers still watching TV that don't know the war is on them.

Forget about it...I'm sure Russia\Iran actually has a competent missile defense and thats all thats needed to disable the fraud show. I'm sure there is better way of wasting all the fake money such as building 50,000 Wind turbines in the ocean that fall apart almost instantly.
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Re: Don’t bet on Russia capping oil output

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 04 Oct 2016, 20:03:25

You mean to say that Secretary Clinton's Russian Reset button didn't work.
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Re: Don’t bet on Russia capping oil output

Unread postby GHung » Tue 04 Oct 2016, 23:13:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'd')iss, sounds like Tanada buys into the Russian-Aggressor meme. I don't. The US is the aggressor, we have Russia surrounded with our military bases.


Meh,, there's enough blame to go around. Two roosters in a shrinking chicken yard.
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Re: Don’t bet on Russia capping oil output

Unread postby dissident » Tue 04 Oct 2016, 23:41:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'd')iss, sounds like Tanada buys into the Russian-Aggressor meme. I don't. The US is the aggressor, we have Russia surrounded with our military bases.


Meh,, there's enough blame to go around. Two roosters in a shrinking chicken yard.


The yard of the American rooster is about six times larger than that of Russian rooster and it is feeling threatened by the shrinkage and thinks it can stave it off by attacking the other rooster and grabbing his turf.
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Re: Don’t bet on Russia capping oil output

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 05 Oct 2016, 01:51:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'd')iss, sounds like Tanada buys into the Russian-Aggressor meme. I don't. The US is the aggressor, we have Russia surrounded with our military bases.


Meh,, there's enough blame to go around. Two roosters in a shrinking chicken yard.


The yard of the American rooster is about six times larger than that of Russian rooster and it is feeling threatened by the shrinkage and thinks it can stave it off by attacking the other rooster and grabbing his turf.


Oh get real, dissident. Ghung is right. What is Russia's grand plan to conquer the world? Wind Turbines...same as EU, USA, China, etc. People laughed at Germany for littering the landscape with those damn medieval Type -1 "Civilization" Horrors and yet NOBODY has any ideas for post-oil industrialism other than WINDMILLS.

China has the largest Shale Gas but it is apparently more difficult than in USA plus in some parts of China there are problems with water sourcing. USA Shale Gas wells have lousy decline profiles and ERoEI is crushed with LNG.

Then there is tar sands with ERoEI of 1.5 or something.

That spells TOTAL DOOM in my book.
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Re: Don’t bet on Russia capping oil output

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 05 Oct 2016, 08:28:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'd')iss, sounds like Tanada buys into the Russian-Aggressor meme. I don't. The US is the aggressor, we have Russia surrounded with our military bases.


How in the world you twisted a history lesson into such starry eyed naivete is beyond my ability to follow.

Countries are like people, they seek to advance one of two things, either the general interests of their country if they are run by Statesmen. Otherwise they seek to advance the personal interest of the leadership at the expense of everything else including the interests of the country, when those places are run by Politicians.
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Re: Russia peaking - 20% decline by 2020?

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 12 Oct 2016, 06:14:24

You know, looking back over all these old predictions that were so wildly wrong, it is no wonder we have lost our credibility with most people.

Here is what actually happened to Russian oil production.
Image

Yes members, instead of collapsing like it was predicted to in 2010 Russian oil production has increased substantially. Barring a war or other mass calamity it is highly unlikely that Russian oil production is about to collapse and be down 20 percent below 2010 levels in just three more years.
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Re: Russia peaking - 20% decline by 2020?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 12 Oct 2016, 08:06:49

Considering political developments over the time period that graph could be viewed as a long bumpy plateau.No way of knowing when it might tip down from either geological or political reasons.
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