[dissident]

Not to derail the discussion, but where is this looming oil flood? I can't see it welling up anywhere. The 7% drop in US oil production in the last year is rather significant. The US was the only oil producer globally that prevented a global production decline over the last few years.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ot to derail the discussion, but where is this looming oil flood? I can't see it welling up anywhere. The 7% drop in US oil production in the last year is rather significant. The US was the only oil producer globally that prevented a global production decline over the last few years.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')At that point prices will rise and once they reach a level that is high enough for a long enough period the shale producers will return to drilling. That oil did not dissappear

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he thing is, once you push the day of reckoning for oil supply far enough ahead, the world is going to be a different place, due to EVs and self-driving cars. A world in an oil-crisis in 2005 (when TOD said it would) and 2025 with a lithium economy and tons of affordable 200+ mile EVs and inexpensive ridesharing to get around is a different ballgame

[StarvingLion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')it should be how to we make a combination of solar, wind, hydro, nuclear work to offset declines in hydrocarbon resources. It's not rocket science, the problem is no one wants to accept this is the only way forward.

[StarvingLion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')nexpensive ridesharing

[StarvingLion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he Lithium Economy

[spike]

Some interesting comments. Pstarr, few were predicting shale oil would matter that far back. You don't seem very informed.
The coming oil flood? If you look carefully, shale oil is starting to stabilize and I think will begin to recover soon. But there's lots of other oil out there that will be hitting the market, as my book explains. Aside from presalt, there's Mexico, Iran, Iraq and probably Libya to add substantial volumes in the next few years. (North Sea is up a little but don't expect too much there.) Russia just set a new record, despite years of peak oilers saying production was unsustainable and it looks like much-delayed Kashagan will come online soon. ML

[ROCKMAN]

Just contemplating the use of the term "flood". Typically used to describe local and relatively short lived events. And sometimes causing the worst catastrophes in areas with little of the flood commodity. Long ago I did geologic field work in the very arid region of northern Mexico. Given the nature of the landscape the effects of previous flash floods were quit evident. Yet there was meager agricultural benefit. In fact would often disrupt drilling efforts...sorry, meant planting efforts. So even when a situation was inundated with a huge volume of oil...sorry, meant water...it was quickly absorbed and had little to no long term positive effect. Except, of course, for the explosion of wildflower blooms. Which gladdened the heart for a brief period before the relentless depletion...sorry, meant sun, burnt the sh*t out of them and the joy vanished. And while many oil companies...sorry, meant homes...are destroyed by the flood it isn't long after those waters recede new companies...sorry, meant homes...are built on top of the destruction. Just like $17/bbl oil in 1998...sorry, meant the Katrina flood waters just a few years ago. New homes that will be devasted when flooded again as is often the case in Hurricane Alley.

IOW floods happen northern Mexico. But it's still a f*cking desert. LOL.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'P')OD isn't too complex to discuss. It's just erroneous.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spike', 'S')ome interesting comments. Pstarr, few were predicting shale oil would matter that far back. You don't seem very informed.

[ROCKMAN]

Adam - "And is generally referred to as "economics" anyway, and doesn't really need a new name for something that has been around for longer than Rockman has."

So when we discuss the energy situation here you feel we should include tax laws, home construction costs, the affordability of our space program, high cost of college education, etc, etc. IOW you want us to focus on our total economic system, the PED...Peak Economic Dynamic? Well, I'll leave that to you and I'll just stay focused on the primary subject of this web site...the POD.

[ROCKMAN]

pstarr - рабочий: a blue collar worker. Closest thing they probably have to roustabout. Except they may have some nasty terms a pissed of drilling superintendent might use. LOL. We have those also: a "worm" for instance. And one notch below that: "weevel". Oil patch evolution: a weevel (known in Vietnam as a FNG) - a worm - a hand - a damn good hand - a f*cking great hand.

And those terms were really meant so much as insults but as warnings as to how much to trust/look out for a new member of the crew.

[spike]

Rockdoc, expectations that the market will come into balance next year (and they've been pushed back several times) are heavily dependent on political developments in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela, as well as relatively pessimistic view of US shale. It seems to me that the date of 'balance' will be pushed back further without an OPEC cut.
Adam, I have been talking to DOE people off and on. A chapter in my book describes the equations in a supply model. However, the big uncertainty is access. How do you predict fiscal terms and acreage availability for countries from Argentina to Yemen for 20 years?

[radon1]

POD is about depletion, and it is much more focused than an "economics" talk. In addition, it incorporates geology etc., i.e. the things outside the realm of "economics". "Economics" are a only slightly better than etp anyway.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spike', '
')Adam, I have been talking to DOE people off and on. A chapter in my book describes the equations in a supply model. However, the big uncertainty is access. How do you predict fiscal terms and acreage availability for countries from Argentina to Yemen for 20 years?

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon1', 'P')OD is about depletion, and it is much more focused than an "economics" talk. In addition, it incorporates geology etc., i.e. the things outside the realm of "economics". "Economics" are a only slightly better than etp anyway.