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The Powers that Be

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Re: Peakers underestimate TPTB at maintaining the Status Quo

Unread postby SumYunGai » Sat 01 Oct 2016, 14:20:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', 'M')odels that try to include too many independent variables don't produce any results at all.

Who is to judge what constitutes too many or too few variables?

Nature. If a model has too many variables, it will not be accurate. If it has too few, it will not be accurate. Models are judged by their real world performance.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', 'T')he Etp methodology is quite simple and elegant, and it's assumptions are very straightforward and logical.

Again, this is a subjective argument on your part.

No, it isn't. It is a descriptive, factual statement. "Simple and elegant" is physics lingo for lot's of bang for the buck, i.e. it yields substantial, dependable results from just a few reliable inputs. And the assumptions of the Etp model are that the end consumers of oil must pay for oil's full production cycle and that they get the money to do this from an economy that runs on the energy from oil. Those assumptions are factually true. The rest is just basic thermodynamics.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'C')onsidering that you have likened ETP to a grand unified theory...

That is false. I never claimed that the Etp model was a grand unified theory. I said that the Etp model is consistent with the known physical laws of the universe. I said it also fits nicely within the framework of the Maximum Power Principle, which is a sort of grand unified theory of biology and physics.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', ',') note that the math physicists are wrestling with in order to reconcile relativity with quantum physics is inherently complicated. It's only your personal desire for simplicity and elegance that drives you to view ETP's model as valid despite leaving too many variables out of the equation. The desire for simplicity is more religiosity than scientific method. It's the same thing that drives people to believe in astrology (like Matt Savinar) or Tarot. People are terrified by the seeming chaos of world events and desire to understand it in order to provide survival advantages. The track record of savants isn't very good, though. Even Nate Silver's batting average is off the mark.

Gibberish.
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Re: Peakers underestimate TPTB at maintaining the Status Quo

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 01 Oct 2016, 16:42:25

Pstarr SunYunGai is able to defend himself, you don't have to egg Ennui2 on every other post. Lets have a little peace and quiet.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Peakers underestimate TPTB at maintaining the Status Quo

Unread postby davep » Sat 01 Oct 2016, 16:44:45

Indeed.
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Re: Peakers underestimate TPTB at maintaining the Status Quo

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 01 Oct 2016, 19:51:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '
')Nature. If a model has too many variables, it will not be accurate. If it has too few, it will not be accurate. Models are judged by their real world performance.


Yes, let's look at that real-world performance, shall we? Adam has already explained to you that ETP's performance doesn't apply to past price charts with its wild gyrations (like in 2008). That's like saying a physics model can't explain how the planets got to where they are, only where they'll be in a few million years. It's a sign of a poor model.

Now we're on the cusp of supply cuts from OPEC. The whole reason OPEC thinks a supply cut will raise prices is due to supply/demand dynamis that ETP claims are invalid, due to the "thermodynamic limits of oil". So ETP may very well be put to the test here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '
')substantial, dependable results from just a few reliable inputs.


And adam has explained to you that looking at a narrow time-slice and lining up two curves is not enough, since you can line up two totally unrelated curves that just happen to converge. That's called statistical noise.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '
')And the assumptions of the Etp model are that the end consumers of oil must pay for oil's full production cycle and that they get the money to do this from an economy that runs on the energy from oil.


What about natural gas, coal, and nukes that keeps the lights on? The fertile soil our food needs to grow on? The ocean's fisheries? The small remainder powered by renewables? I could go on and on. LTG does a pretty good job at looking at the big picture but ETP has oil tunnel-vision.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', 'I') never claimed that the Etp model was a grand unified theory.


Wrong. As Whatever you said when you discovered it that it became your "grand unified theory". Not that I care enough to go mining the site to dredge it up, unlike you who sees fit to chart my daily post-counts.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '
')it also fits nicely within the framework of the Maximum Power Principle, which is a sort of grand unified theory of biology and physics.


It would, if it looked at ALL resource inputs besides just oil. It's not that it has nothing to offer, just that it coopts thermodynamics too much.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Peakers underestimate TPTB at maintaining the Status Quo

Unread postby SumYunGai » Sat 01 Oct 2016, 20:51:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', 'N')ature. If a model has too many variables, it will not be accurate. If it has too few, it will not be accurate. Models are judged by their real world performance.

Yes, let's look at that real-world performance, shall we? Adam has already explained to you that ETP's performance doesn't apply to past price charts with its wild gyrations (like in 2008). That's like saying a physics model can't explain how the planets got to where they are, only where they'll be in a few million years. It's a sign of a poor model.

No, it isn't. The Etp model forecasts the average annual oil price. It handles the wild gyrations in 2008 just fine. Those wild short term gyrations averaged together form the yearly average price. Sheesh.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'N')ow we're on the cusp of supply cuts from OPEC. The whole reason OPEC thinks a supply cut will raise prices is due to supply/demand dynamis that ETP claims are invalid, due to the "thermodynamic limits of oil". So ETP may very well be put to the test here.

It seems like the only way you can argue against the Etp model is to misrepresent it. The Etp model does not claim that supply and demand are invalid. Supply and demand are operating just fine. We are having a glut and the oil price is low, just as it should be.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', 's')ubstantial, dependable results from just a few reliable inputs.

And adam has explained to you that looking at a narrow time-slice and lining up two curves is not enough, since you can line up two totally unrelated curves that just happen to converge. That's called statistical noise.
The Etp model's inputs span 56 years. And the output correlates to the actual yearly average oil price from 1960-2013 with a correlation coefficient of .965. That is not statistical noise.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', 'A')nd the assumptions of the Etp model are that the end consumers of oil must pay for oil's full production cycle and that they get the money to do this from an economy that runs on the energy from oil.
What about natural gas, coal, and nukes that keeps the lights on? The fertile soil our food needs to grow on? The ocean's fisheries? The small remainder powered by renewables? I could go on and on.
Yeah, I noticed. We just covered all of this earlier today. This is too repetitive. Please try to remember my earlier answer since I don't feel like retyping it for you now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', 'I') never claimed that the Etp model was a grand unified theory.
Wrong. As Whatever you said when you discovered it that it became your "grand unified theory". Not that I care enough to go mining the site to dredge it up, unlike you who sees fit to chart my daily post-counts.
False and totally irrelevant in any case. I know what I said and what I meant. You are arguing with yourself about nothing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', 'i')t also fits nicely within the framework of the Maximum Power Principle, which is a sort of grand unified theory of biology and physics.
It would, if it looked at ALL resource inputs besides just oil. It's not that it has nothing to offer, just that it coopts thermodynamics too much.
THE ETP MODEL FITS NICELY WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE MAXIMUM POWER PRINCIPLE. If you can't understand what that means, I cannot help you. I don't want to argue with your straw men and misrepresentations over and over anymore. It is boring. Can't you come up with something new?
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Re: Peakers underestimate TPTB at maintaining the Status Quo

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 01 Oct 2016, 21:49:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '
')It handles the wild gyrations in 2008 just fine. Those wild short term gyrations averaged together form the yearly average price. Sheesh.


BS. The "thermodynamic limit" of oil didn't change wildly between 2008 and now. The price did, though. The curve-smoothing of the averages is just a kludge.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '
')We are having a glut and the oil price is low, just as it should be.


Great, so why worry?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '
')The Etp model's inputs span 56 years. And the output correlates to the actual yearly average oil price from 1960-2013 with a correlation coefficient of .965. That is not statistical noise.


Then it has BS in the algorithm to force it to work after the fact. There's no way for it to work the way you're describing.

Also, Adam already blew some of your data out of the water in regards to bogus refinery overhead.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '
')Yeah, I noticed. We just covered all of this earlier today. This is too repetitive. Please try to remember my earlier answer since I don't feel like retyping it for you now.


I thought I was supposed to be on ignore? Stop chiding me and start ignoring if you feel this is so exhausting for you.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '
')THE ETP MODEL FITS NICELY WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE MAXIMUM POWER PRINCIPLE.


Uh, oh, it's back to all caps. Shall we add color next?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '
')If you can't understand what that means, I cannot help you. I don't want to argue with your straw men and misrepresentations over and over anymore. It is boring. Can't you come up with something new?

Someone fast-forward history 4 years so we can all just call ETP out on its BS and get it over with. Your arrogance in the infallibility of ETP is what's boring.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Peakers underestimate TPTB at maintaining the Status Quo

Unread postby SumYunGai » Sat 01 Oct 2016, 22:21:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I') thought I was supposed to be on ignore? Stop chiding me and start ignoring if you feel this is so exhausting for you.

Good advice. Thanks.
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Re: Peakers underestimate TPTB at maintaining the Status Quo

Unread postby radon1 » Sun 02 Oct 2016, 02:59:24

So, etperia has now contaminated just about every active thread.

Can anyone say what the "etp model" models exactly? Nobody knows. Discussing something that nobody knows what it is.
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Re: Peakers underestimate TPTB at maintaining the Status Quo

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 02 Oct 2016, 05:35:15

radon - "Nobody knows. Discussing something that nobody knows what it is.". And IMHO a more important question I put out some time ago and have yet to receive a satisfactory answer: who is using the model and what is it being used for? I'm in the oil biz and I know of no one who has ever heard of it. In fact I read thousands of oil patch related publications and MSM reports and I've never seen it mentioned anywhere else for this site. The folks who have tens of $billions invested in long term oil futures appear to be ignoring it even if they are aware of it. China and other countries are building SPR's with oil priced higher the future prices predicted by the model so they are ignoring it....even if they are aware of it. The companies with budgets in the many tens of $billions for developing Deep Water Brazil are ignoring it...even if they are aware of it.

So back to your question: what is it modeling other then one company's expectation of future oil prices? A company as far as I know isn't directly involved in oil futures, oil development or oil production. Wouldn't it save us a lot of space here if we just all agree that the model is 100% correct? Even if it's 100% wrong what difference would it make to our conversations here?

So let the Rockman lead the way: I, Rockman, fully believe in the model (as well as the abiotic origin of all oil) and therefore see no value in debating its validity any longer. Thus there is no reason to discuss the issue with the anti-model crowd ever again. I so do pledge.
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Re: The Powers that Be

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Tue 29 Nov 2016, 18:20:49

In another couple of decades, by the time petroleum becomes too scarce and expensive for most people even in developed nations to use, petroleum-based transportation would become restricted to the richest 1% or even only richest 0.1% of the population. So it is very likely in the not-to-distant future, air travel or driving a personal automobile may become too expensive for the vast majority of people

Of course, the richest people in the world would not be able shelter themselves with their vast wealth from the starving masses for very long, and sooner or later, when the supermarket shelves run out of food and other essential supplies for living, the proliterat will violently overthrow the ruling class, and then anarchy will ensure. When a society collapses, nobody can escape the chaos and suffering. The poorest members of a collapsing society will sufffer first, but eventually the richest people will suffer the latest since they are insultated by their wealth and can afford raising prices for essential foods for longer. Until, of course, when the entire supply chain breaks down, not even the rich will survive for much longer than the not-so-rich.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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Re: The Powers that Be

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 17:57:25

Secretive Bilderberg group meetings begin in Virginia

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he storm around Donald Trump is about to shift a few miles west of the White House, to a conference centre in Chantilly, Virginia, where the embattled president will be getting his end-of-term grades from the people whose opinion really matters: Bilderberg. If ever there’s a place where a president could hear the words “you’re fired!”, it’s Bilderberg.

The secretive three-day summit of the political and economic elite kicks off on Thursday in heavily guarded seclusion at the Westfields Marriott, a luxury hotel a short distance from the Oval Office. The hotel was already on lockdown on Wednesday, and an army of landscapers have been busy planting fir trees around the perimeter, to protect coy billionaires and bashful bank bosses from any prying lenses.

Henry Kissinger, the gravel-throated kingpin of Bilderberg, visited Trump at the White House a few weeks ago to discuss “Russia and other things”.

The 65th Bilderberg Meeting will take place from 1-4 June 2017 in Chantilly, Virginia, USA. As of today, 131 participants from 21 countries have confirmed their attendance. As ever, a diverse group of political leaders and experts from industry, finance, academia and the media has been invited. The list of participants is available here.

The key topics for discussion this year include:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')i]- The Trump Administration: A progress report
(Membership vote: Will he be 'Sleeping With the Fishes'?)
- Trans-Atlantic relations: options and scenarios
- The Trans-Atlantic defence alliance: bullets, bytes and bucks
- The direction of the EU
- Can globalisation be slowed down?
- Jobs, income and unrealised expectations
- The war on information
- Why is populism growing?
- Russia in the international order
- The Near East
- Nuclear proliferation
- China
- Current events

Thanks to the private nature of the meeting, the participants are not bound by the conventions of their office or by pre-agreed positions.

Image

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... et-meeting

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Re: The Powers that Be

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 19:24:09

Trump was never the choice of TPTB. If I was him, I would step down before I am forced to resign or given the Kennedy treatment
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Re: The Powers that Be

Unread postby Cog » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 20:10:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'T')rump was never the choice of TPTB. If I was him, I would step down before I am forced to resign or given the Kennedy treatment


Neither of the two actions that you mentioned would turn out well for anyone.
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Re: The Powers that Be

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Fri 09 Jun 2017, 10:14:41

In case if you're wondering, TPTB monitor everything we are doing online and digitally. We truly live in a world of "Big Brother is watching you" except it isn't Big Brother. It is Google (and other companies and organizations that have control over the data that is stored and sent over the Internet) that is watching you.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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Re: The Powers that Be

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 09 Jun 2017, 10:21:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'I')n case if you're wondering, TPTB monitor everything we are doing online and digitally. We truly live in a world of "Big Brother is watching you" except it isn't Big Brother. It is Google (and other companies and organizations that have control over the data that is stored and sent over the Internet) that is watching you.

hmm, well all these corporations ultimately are within the purview of the financial TPTB. And their monitoring is a form of population control. :)
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Re: The Powers that Be

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 09 Jun 2017, 14:13:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')ctually it's your metadata that is monitored . . . name rank and serial number, that sort of thing. So the wikileaks release was of phone #s that merely revealed caller phone connected with the callee phone . . . a pair of metadata items. Useful info to a slight degree. Your shopping purchases and online product views are metadata. (the real criminals ship to PO boxes) The actual content of the phone calls is real data. It can not be tracked.

No information processing system exists that can decipher with any degree of accuracy and nuance the actual content of a conversation, message, text or email. Humans live in a cultural world with definitions and connections that change daily. Our linguistics are still a mystery and Watson is an idiot.

Keep believing that Pete - but it just ain't so ...

See also Prism, Conveyance, Nucleon, and XKeyscore
Image
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PRISM_%28 ... program%29
https://search.edwardsnowden.com/search ... CONVEYANCE

Image

Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The NSA Utah facility, one of the Pentagon's biggest U.S. construction projects, has become a symbol of the spy agency's surveillance prowess, which gained broad attention in the wake of leaks from NSA contractor Edward Snowden. It spans more than one-million square feet, with construction costs pegged at $1.4 billion—not counting the Cray supercomputers that will reside there.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]William Binney, a former NSA technical director, has said that the facility was built to store recordings and other content of communications, not only for metadata.

The data center is alleged to be able to process "all forms of communication, including the complete contents of private emails, cell phone calls, and Internet searches, as well as all types of personal data trails—parking receipts, travel itineraries, bookstore purchases, and other digital 'pocket litter'."
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')size=150]Exactly how much data the NSA will be able to store there is classified. Engineers on the project believe the capacity is bigger than Google's largest data center. Estimates are in a range difficult to imagine but outside experts believe it will keep exabytes or zettabytes of data.

An exabyte is roughly 100,000 times the size of the printed material in the Library of Congress; a zettabyte is 1,000 times larger.[/size]

Now multiply that by 10. There are over 8-10 other data sites amongs't the Five-Eyes. here's one in Texas.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]National Security Agency leases Texas plant for data storage expansion project

Plan calls for adding 6,000 employees by 2008 Making room for a wave of new hires, the National Security Agency has leased a former Sony computer chip plant in San Antonio from a Maryland real estate company, the agency said yesterday. The former Sony plant consists of two connected buildings with office and research and development space totaling 470,000 square feet. Those buildings could be expanded by several thousand more square feet.

In addition, Office Properties Trust plans to buy 43 more acres around the 50-acre Sony Campus. The campus has the ability to accommodate three more buildings and its developers eventually expect the site to exceed 1 million square feet, making it the city's second largest office park after USAA's headquarters on the North Side. The developers need to do some remodeling to the site to accommodate the NSA operations, which are expected to begin moving in this fall.

The agency's expansion plans calls for adding 1,500 employees every year starting from last year until 2008. The agency, employs more than 30,000 people worldwide
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Re: The Powers that Be

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 09 Jun 2017, 14:18:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'T')rump was never the choice of TPTB. If I was him, I would step down before I am forced to resign or given the Kennedy treatment


Neither of the two actions that you mentioned would turn out well for anyone.


This was also said in the early days of Obama, many feared he represented a certain threat to the status quo and being black on top of it made him at high risk. Being a lawyer and valuing his life I think he towed the line and became one of the most ineffective presidents of our time.... but he lived. He probably made the right choice having a lovely family etc.

Trump is a different ball of wax. I have a hard time seeing him caving so easily, he is an ego maniac, on the other hand, he is supporting many positions of TPTB so he may survive the presidency. alot of bluster but not really rocking the boat too much. He does have savvy lawyers who should guide him when he wanders into risky territory.

I also think TPTB actually tolerate Trump because he is an excellent distraction keeping everyone engaged in tabloid land.
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