[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '
')What the hell are you talking about?

[StarvingLion]

There isn't much story left to tell.

The major oil companies are going to quickly go broke mining 'shale oil' because there is nothing else left and then...

The Dieoff.

The Boneheads at Shell who believe there is going to be a natural gas era or the frauds in the universities with their "renewables" cuckoo crap are not only "Not even wrong'....they are 'Not even dreamers"

[SumYunGai]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('harrisonlw', 'J')esus. I really wanted this thread to be meaningful but some people just cannot help themselves.

[onlooker]

Harrison your wrong about Pstarr. He is a valuable senior poster on this site and that is in so small part due to his acumen in many offshoots of peak oil. Your casual disregard for his knowledge is more illustrative of your standing than his. Where is your solid scholarly defense of Renewable energy and such? Me, Pstarr and some others here would like to see it. For the numbers do not add up. Too little energy, too intermittent, too late and too difficult and time/energy/money onerous to scale up at this point. In case you were not paying attention we are already in the throes of the peak oil dynamic. The Oil industry is struggling as is the general Economy and bad synergy is getting revved up. But some cannot or will not notice.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('harrisonlw', 'T')he thread isn't dead, much as some want it to be.

Peak demand is starting to get more attention as the real issue. It is the proverbial nail in the coffin for the doomsday scenarios wrought by peak oil. Interestingly, the oil industry and doomers find common ground in their opposition to peak oil demand.

The ageing of the global population (shrinking labour force), economic growth shifting to services and away from industrialisation and the improvements in energy efficiency should see demand for energy peak sooner than expected.
And that assumes that current trends merely continue i.e. without much state intervention and no significant tech breakthrough. Tech developments will benefit from the gradual cessation of FF subsidies and increased investment in renewable energy.

And I don't believe that investment will remain coupled to oil price movements post-COP 21.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('harrisonlw', 'J')esus. I really wanted this thread to be meaningful but some people just cannot help themselves.

Pstarr, your views are respected by approximately three people on this forum. You disregard technical, scientific and academic evidence because it doesn't support your preconceived views. The call for humility is an interesting one too, considering that you asserted that I know 'squat' about these things in the same post. The hypocrisy is astounding.

But let's say I am wrong. As someone who presumably knows more about these things, could you please inform me where I went wrong in my assessment of changing demographics, economic substitution, energy efficiency and climate change negotiations? This is a forum after all. I am happy to be proven wrong.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('harrisonlw', 'W')asn't a statement, hence the question mark. My view is that the fast crash and the slow crash are unlikely to come to pass, and that we will transition relatively smoothly to renewables (with a slightly different economic system eventually, one that doesn't rely on perpetual growth in consumption).

Fair point though. I just wanted it to be the forum-equivalent of clickbait and to really engage everyone.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('harrisonlw', 'I') should've been more specific. I meant pstarr's views on peak oil and its application to contemporary oil production, not its offshoots, whatever that means. Which is precisely why I've asked him to correct me on my views. Instead of being ultra-sensitive to opposing views and disregarding technical, scientific and academic evidence, pstarr could bring to bear his acumen and change my mind. My standing is irrelevant to me, though I will say that standing is decidedly subjective. I'm interested in facts and predictions made using evidence, something lacking in this forum.

I'm not entirely sure what you mean by solid scholarly defence. If you'd like me to author a systematic review of the academic literature on renewable energy, you'll be disappointed. I read papers in peer-reviewed academic journals and articles written by academics and industry experts. I endeavour to contribute these things in the relevant threads.

So, onlooker, and I do mean this sincerely mate, what did I miss in regards to being in the throes of peak oil? Are you referring to the ETP model and its prediction of a lowering oil price? I don't know much about it but it looks to be discussed a fair bit and seems relevant to this thread so fire away.

[StarvingLion]

Bah, more pseudo claptrap around here. The last string holding this gong show from doom is shale oil and the main shale oil hucksters (texas tea and coffeeguyzz) at

http://peakoilbarrel.com/mexico-china-a ... /#comments

are well beyond desperation. They are now truly pathetic (read in bold):

texas tea says:
09/22/2016 at 6:26 pm

I suppose “facts” are in the eye of the beholder. I have posted numerous articles from independent analysis from Wood Mackenzie, RYSTAD ENERGY, and the above article from IHS Markit, these companies have tremendous capabilities and research departments with a world wide footprints who sell at a profit, independent research. All of which shows the trend as highlighted in the article. That is, the cost per BOE of LTO has come down very significantly. Those reason given are the same reason cost have come down in past bust cycles. They are real, they will continue as long and market forces require cost containment to be continued. I suppose those who are paying for this research could just come here and read this blog for free. But in the real world you get what you pay for.

Those who do not understand or refuse to except that US domestic oil and gas exploration industry has forever been changed, will go the way of the dodo bird.

Moores law can be applied to oil and gas drilling and completion technology. More production less cost…just the facts!
Reply

Coffeeguyzz says:
09/22/2016 at 7:51 pm

TT

Although Eclipse’s Purple Hayes well received well earned recognition for the 18,000’+ lateral and 124 stages, the cost reduction versus recoverable resource seemed completely overlooked amidst all the technical hoopla.
Specifically, this well had a 30% lower cost per lateral foot than comparable Utica wells.

That’s huge.

As this was the first of three Utica ‘superlaterals’ from Eclipse (the others are planned 19,000’/20,000′), cost may drop further as familiarity takes hold.

The Permian and Niobrara operators may continue to extend the length of their laterals also if results continue to be positive.

In addition to the speed of the drilling process – mile a day drilling is becoming routine in the Appalachian Basin, control of the fracture process via divertors, slickwater, sand, and – increasingly – real time microseismic measurements, is enabling much higher production from just two years ago.

Eclipse installed hardware for gas lift for long term recovery optimization.
In the Bakken, Continental (I believe), just spudded three wells with 15,000′ laterals under Lake Sakakawea.

The ongoing innovation continues apace.

[StarvingLion]

SHOCKING NEWS UPDATE: Oil Driller Mike Shellman has just made the startling statement that the price of oil will never go back above $50. The etp model is correct and BW Hill will soon be a star.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/mexico-china-a ... ent-581796

Mike says:
09/22/2016 at 9:03 pm

El no ve nada, HR. You and I both know that the shale oil industry is woefully unprofitable and therefore not sustainable. Anybody with an ounce of sense knows this. Making predictions about the price of oil, and the role shale oil will have in our energy future, without regard for costs, and debt, is foolish. Deseo a este amigo tomaría el Texas fuera de su nombre. Su embarazosa. I am sorry for my bad Spanish.

I hope you are hanging in there…our task now, guys like you and me, is to make it work at 50 dollars a barrel. We can do that. We have to.

[onlooker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')esource and energy use have to continue rising in these countries for the global economy to reach full industrialization. For that to happen, up to four more planets will be needed.

[StarvingLion]

onlooker, look at the stock price of National Commercial Bank of Saudi Arabia for the past year. Collapsed from 70.63 to 33 and is in total freefall headed to 0. The crockdoc tells us SA is making money at $10 price of oil...

SHOCKING NEWS UPDATE 2: shallow sand just stated that WW3 is ongoing with Shale Capitalism/Socialism vs Nuclear Communism/Fascism. BW may be a spy working for the other side.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/mexico-china-a ... ent-581798

shallow sand says:
09/22/2016 at 9:46 pm

"For those not suffering due to very low oil and gas prices, shale is about knocking OPEC and Russia on their heels, American ingenuity, capitalism, and other patriotic stuff. Stuff, by the way, that I acknowledge as being very important. "

[onlooker]

So KSA is collapsing and they are admitting that price may never go above $50 . Sounds like the curtain call for our way of life!

[StarvingLion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'S')o KSA is collapsing and they are admitting that price may never go above $50 . Sounds like the curtain call for our way of life!

[StarvingLion]

The recent absurd announcement by the Bank of Japan and todays posts by coffeeguyzz and by Reno Hightower confirms my suspicion that they are preventing Peak Oil by destroying the fiat currencies to try and destroy SA and Russia and Iran in the process. The real price of oil is something like $300 a barrel which would all be going to a new currency regime if it wasn't for shale drilling and WORTHLESS JUNK MONEY. The System is RAPIDLY CRASHING AND BURNING.

Coffeeguyzz says:
09/23/2016 at 10:09 am

Dennis

Kudos to you for your ongoing efforts in keeping this site active.

Addressing some of your points …

I never put much emphasis on EUR as it is both a contentious topic and completely ‘unprovable’ in the near term. People will tend to believe what they wish to be true.
However, just yesterday, Lynn Helms did say recent Bakken wells’ EURs have increased about 25%.
The indisputable increase in output from new wells will accelerate the revenue, no small fact when ATW in ND runs about $33/bbl.

On March 14, 2011, armor from KSA raced across the causeway and rescued the Al-Khalif regime in Bahrain from protestors, thus enabling the continuation of the incarceration, torture, and executions of several dissidents.
This is partly what is at stake here, Dennis.
When people accurately point out the very low lifting cost of KSA oil, that is both accurate and woefully beside the point in the bigger picture of things.
KSA has demonstrably hemorrhaged hundreds of billions of dollars in the past 24 months and is increasingly showing signs of societal discontent.
The stakes are literally life and death.

Regarding costs per foot, the Appalachian Basin operators need that metric as no pre-defined drilling spacing units exist.
Not only the size, but also the shape of designated production units – approved by state regulators – can vary wildly.
By any standards, a 30% reduction in cost, especially if repeatable and applicable in other basins, is a big deal.

Regarding the financials of the operators, my often stated view of not immersing myself in what is clearly a highly distressed situation, still holds … but …
Didja see the most recent free cash flow graphic from Rune? With all the overwhelming financial negativity coming out of the Bakken, last few months were cash flow positive?

Ongoing drama with the highest stakes involved for all of us.
To repeat TT’s above comment, the O&G industry has fundamentally changed forever.

Reno Hightower says:
09/23/2016 at 11:38 am

Coffee

Just my 2 cents. I have seen first hand the DOMESTIC Oil and Gas Industry change forever, so I agree. I want to give a little background so you know where I am coming from. I am a small producer. I work closely with an operator and we put conventional Oil and Gas deals together all over the gulf coast. MS, LA and Texas. There is not a single resource play that has better economics than what I sell. I drill conventional deals. 4 way closures, pinchouts across a nose, reservoirs trapped up against a fault, etc. I use 2D and 3D and subsurface geology. I have a great geologist and geophysicist and we work on a shoestring. Selling deals I have seen the change. PE backed and Publicly traded companies will not drill conventional deals anymore. I had a discussion with a large publicly traded independent (VP of Land) about this and he admitted such. They get punished by the markets for drilling Exploration deals, regardless of how much money they lose in resource plays. These companies are mining companies. Nothing more. They tell themselves they are risk free, they just do not appreciate that they are shifting risk. From up front drill money to risk in commodity pricing. My wells are economical at much less than what they are. It is painfully clear.

My issue is the change and the complete lack of understanding of what we are facing. The money these companies spend every quarter without regard to the bottom line is staggering, and the bill will come due. That is an indisputable fact. Rig efficiency, increased Estimated (it is an estimate) UR and high IP’s have yet to make these companies profitable. When this bill comes due, this industry will have to eat a giant s&*! sandwich for the havoc it has reaked. and the destruction it has caused . And it is 100% on us as an industry.

The only number that counts is the bottom line and without a rebound in pricing, it will only get worse and the rebound will be that much harder

I say this for the same reason Mike and SS do. This is market distortion at its finest, and it when it corrects, EVERYONE, from producers to consumers (everyone in this country) will feel it. This will not end well.

[onlooker]

Starve hasn't the way to this outcome already been paved by moves by Iran, China, Russia and the BRICS to establish alternate oil bourses, petrocurrencies and a return to some sort of realistic accounting such as a return to the gold standard?

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'S')o KSA is collapsing and they are admitting that price may never go above $50 . Sounds like the curtain call for our way of life!

[onlooker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'S')o KSA is collapsing and they are admitting that price may never go above $50 . Sounds like the curtain call for our way of life!

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '
')I never specified what part of the peak oil dynamic would be the catalyst for our downfall. So you cannot quote me on that.