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The collapse as it will happen

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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby ennui2 » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 11:43:47

BTW, what's really going on in regards to disease prevention:

http://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-ne ... picks=true

But we should shrug this off because "rich people--evil"
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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby Plantagenet » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 12:01:43

Zuckerberg and his wife Dr. Chan of Facebook fame aren't giving away 3 billion to fight disease. They are investing 3 billion in various medical businesses and start-ups in order to make giant profits down the road. They will own the private companies they are investing in and they will keep the profits the companies make.

Thats what billionaires do---they make giant profits through their investments.

I don't know why the MSM is spinning this as some kind of grand and wonderful philanthropic endeavor---all Zuckerberg and Chan are doing is investing their billions to make more billions for Zuckerberg and Chan. [smilie=dontknow.gif]
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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby GHung » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 12:13:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', '
')With the high mortality rates, it's only a matter of time.


Cid, I thought you were busy telling us that the earth's gonna flip to hothouse mode in only a few years and we'll all be dead because of it?

When you move from obsessing over one fast-crash to another it really hurts any individual case you want to make and it falls back into "end is nigh"(TM) mode.


Gosh, ennui, are you trying to posit that these threats are somehow mutually exclusive? Think we're that stupid? NEWSFLASH! They're all threats on their own, and ultimately interconnected.

Example: Global warming allows tropical diseases to move to higher latitudes where the populations have little immunity, and already stressed healthcare systems aren't prepared (Zika?)

Example: Widespread insecticide spraying for Zika is killing already stressed honey bee populations affecting agriculture.

Knock-on effects, few affective firewalls, global travel by planes and ships, new emergent vectors.... I could go on, but in your case, it seems pointless.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The true cost of Zika in the U.S. could be staggering

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-true-co ... taggering/

.....During a recent webinar for the Kaiser Family Foundation, the CDC's Frieden said the lifetime cost of care for a microcephalic child would be somewhere between $1 million and $10 million. Some of it would be borne by parents and relatives, but most of it would require the intervention of either private insurance or the public health care system. Many of these children would probably be institutionalized for at least part of their lives.....


What does insurance (already unaffordable-for-many) have to do with anything? It's just another of a thousand cuts that will ultimately bring this monster of an industrial age down. THESE THINGS CAN"T BE COMPARTMENTALISED.
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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby careinke » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 13:10:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', '[')url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0U29JW3hGIs]After Armageddon[/url]

In this documentary, the initiating cause is a highly viral, fast moving pandemic, but the progression, regardless of the trigger, is the same.


Wow, with a little more knowledge and preparation, their lives could have been so much easier, maybe even pleasant.
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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby ennui2 » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 13:17:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '
')NEWSFLASH! They're all threats on their own, and ultimately interconnected.


It's just like I said.

Cid came in here to make a pronouncement. Sort of like the ETP zealots. The world's gonna end soon, and this is the cause. No discussion, just a pronouncement.

If that's the case, who cares about Zika anymore?

But for Cid to waffle and start fixating on other things, like left/right politics or what not, gives one the impression that his AGW pronouncements are just a short-term fixation as he moves round-robin through others.

Note the topic thread. The Collapse as it WILL happen. Not as it MIGHT happen, as it WILL happen.

I do not respect people who outline the future as if it's written in stone, then come back later and rewrite it and again say the new narrative is now written in stone.
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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby Tanada » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 14:12:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'B')TW, what's really going on in regards to disease prevention:

http://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-ne ... picks=true

But we should shrug this off because "rich people--evil"


If they really want to get rich I would recommend developing vaccines for each and every bacteria that is becoming resistant to antibiotics. Each one will need its own, but it will be worth the development costs because they will not be treatable any other way. Perhaps develop a process for creating artificial antibodies targeting them as well so if a patient shows up with X you give them and IV of antibodies for X and a vaccine to prevent a recurrence of X.
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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby ennui2 » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 14:48:11

We're getting to a point of understanding of genetics and the ability to synthesize things via CRISPR that how we fight disease is likely to fundamentally change.

http://gizmodo.com/everything-you-need- ... 1702114381
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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby KaiserJeep » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 15:09:04

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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby ennui2 » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 15:32:36

"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 16:41:14

It's one thing to point out that a nasty pandemic could potentially be a real big problem. It's a far different (and far less credible) thing to assert that the "collapse" will happen any time now, because pandemics happen.

But let's pretend that as long as the doomer crowd can keep trotting out the supposed reason that THIS week/month/year is certainly our last, that we should all be alarmed and expect THIS time to be it, regardless of all the wrong calls.

Or not. (Which gets my vote, as a moderate).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby GHung » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 20:16:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'I')t's one thing to point out that a nasty pandemic could potentially be a real big problem. It's a far different (and far less credible) thing to assert that the "collapse" will happen any time now, because pandemics happen.

But let's pretend that as long as the doomer crowd can keep trotting out the supposed reason that THIS week/month/year is certainly our last, that we should all be alarmed and expect THIS time to be it, regardless of all the wrong calls.


Anyone specifically, or are you just being hyperbolic? I don't recall anyone here saying that THIS week/month/year is certainly our last.
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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby onlooker » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 23:09:13

Ennui your MO is aversion to hearing any doom scenario that is soon or fast. Cid making a point about germs does not negate his hothouse prediction. That is a false equivalency. I think facing your fears does not make them any less real. It is a part of being human to be afraid .
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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby Cid_Yama » Fri 23 Sep 2016, 01:33:39

Mos(Ennui) has always been like that. He attacks the messenger if it starts to get too real.

The original documentary post was about fast crash and why you don't want to be in an urban environment when it happens. It just happened to have a pandemic as the trigger.

The post of news about the VERY REAL crisis of antibiotic resistance, especially carbapenem-resistance, was a direct response to KJ's nonsense about "we now have antibiotics so none of that can ever happen'.

My prediction all along has been that abrupt climate change (which we are now in), triggered by methane releases, especially from the ESAS, would lead to global crop failures, initiating famines (happening with increased frequency), pandemics from weakened immune systems (pstarr, they start among the poor and malnourished but spread to everyone), and water scarcity (already happening) by 2020.

Stated briefly, global crop failures by 2020 due to abrupt climate change. Which then sets off a cascade of death around the world from secondary and tertiary effects.

We appear to be right on track.

And Mos, I do have other interests. It doesn't mean I've lost focus. Save your strawman-making for someone else.
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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby onlooker » Fri 23 Sep 2016, 04:56:26

As has been noted we are more vulnerable to Pandemics than ever before. Huge populations crammed together, exotic germs being unearthed which we unprepared for biologically, rapid transmission via air travel (negating Pstarr point about regional containment), weakened immune systems due to multiple reasons in poor and rich countries and substandard healthcare in many places
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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby KaiserJeep » Fri 23 Sep 2016, 05:34:40

Cid, you created a quote and put it in quotation marks and attributed it to me. Those are not my words, those are yours, and I want you to know I lost a lot of respect for you when you did that, and I wanted to call the attention of the other members to what you did for the sake of your own opinions.

Nor did I ever say or believe that antibiotic resistance was not a serious issue. In another thread this week I related my experiences last year when I was hospitalized in a facility that then experienced an outbreak of antibiotic-resistant bacterial pneumonia, which I survived in my weakened state only because they DNA sequenced the bacteria in a matter of hours, and went immediately to large doses of IV-infused Tier 4 antibiotics. Fortunate I was to be in a modern medical facility that can sequence bacterial DNA, because the usual CDC turnaround time would have killed me.

Nor does the topic of antibiotic resistance have anything to do with antimicrobials or antivirals which work differently than do antibiotics, they are different classes of medicines. Likewise antimicrobial resistance and antibiotic resistance are different things.

I say this because your whole argument was rendered non sequitur when you called the broad-spectrum antimicrobial carbapenems antibiotics.

Look, the whole argument about new resistant strains of bacteria, viruses, and even fungi can be summarized in a few words. In spite of the evolution of these new strains, treatment regimens in modern 1st World countries are steadily improving survival rates of patients exposed to these diseases. Antibiotics remain potent medicines, in spite of being slightly less effective on the new strains. Quit the doomer nonsense, please.

Tanada, your argument was also non sequitur, I made it clear I was talking about African jungles without any effective medical facilities, and not African urban hospitals. But I do not agree that all hospitals are even approximately equal, either. There are online subscriber lists of hospitals, clinics, and individual physicians here in Silicon Valley, you can pick a facility or a doctor with the highest success rate at treating the condition you have, or the best survival rate for surgeries or transplants - a great thing in fact. UCSF, the Stanford Medical Center, and the Mayo Clinics in San Francisco and Palo Alto topped the list in a majority of medical categories this year, in a list where the bottom-rated facilities are near the average performance levels throughout the USA. I'm not aware that African hospitals are even evaluated with such criteria, but I am sure that the occupants of the jungles with little or no care facilities are lots more vulnerable. Pandemics happen in those jungles.
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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby Tanada » Fri 23 Sep 2016, 08:05:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'T')anada, your argument was also non sequitur, I made it clear I was talking about African jungles without any effective medical facilities, and not African urban hospitals. But I do not agree that all hospitals are even approximately equal, either. There are online subscriber lists of hospitals, clinics, and individual physicians here in Silicon Valley, you can pick a facility or a doctor with the highest success rate at treating the condition you have, or the best survival rate for surgeries or transplants - a great thing in fact. UCSF, the Stanford Medical Center, and the Mayo Clinics in San Francisco and Palo Alto topped the list in a majority of medical categories this year, in a list where the bottom-rated facilities are near the average performance levels throughout the USA. I'm not aware that African hospitals are even evaluated with such criteria, but I am sure that the occupants of the jungles with little or no care facilities are lots more vulnerable. Pandemics happen in those jungles.


Jut to be clear, when I say third world hospitals are competent to treat mass illness what I mean specifically is life support capability. IOW IV fluids, cooling or warming, IV feeding, mechanical respirators... Every hospital has the capacity to support your life functions and give your own immune system the best chance to rally and defeat the infectious agent.
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Re: The collapse as it will happen

Postby Tanada » Fri 23 Sep 2016, 08:25:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'E')pidemics are by nature self-limiting. Pandemic is impossible, even in the globalized economy. Epidemics are regional, they kill the host, the host population. Then the epidemic ends.

So a particular fox population breeds, overwhelms the food base (not enough mice for Gen X), individuals weaken, rabies move in, and voila . . . end of local fox population. In the future a distant fox population moves in, repopulates the place. Rinse and repeat. Endless forever, cycles of nature and all that. Problem for humans is our food base IS PETROLEUM. So we all die.


Up until roughly 1920 every city on the planet Earth was a population sink. The disease death rate was catastrophically high, to the point that even when the average woman had 8 live births less than 2 children would live long enough to pass on their genes to the next generation. Cities were a draw for rural population who wanted to live urban lifestyles, which is the only thing which allowed them to grow and thrive instead of shrinking to a population smaller than the pandemic minimum of circa 5,000 people.

The only reason Rome was a successful city with a sustained population of 1 Million was the fact that they had pure spring water flowing in though at least 7 different aqueducts and a city sewer system that flushed solid waste away constantly. From the fall of the western Empire in the 400's AD until the 1800's no other city on Earth ever got to that population level. London Finally claimed that title in 1800 but was still a charnel house of disease until the 'modern' sewer system was completed in 1870. Death rates from disease plummeted from late 1870 on well before antibiotics were introduced in the 1940's.

Unfortunately the systems we use in the 21st century involve a lot of energy to limit the number of treatment plants for sewage by pumping everything to the plant instead of having multiple plants where the sewage flow via gravity. Turn off the power for a week and most major cities will be epidemic centers for all the common sewage borne diseases like Cholera that used to kill a few thousand in every large urban center every few years. Naturally the bigger the urban center the higher the death rate because the more folks you have packed together the easier it is for the illness to spread.
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