[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')ctually reserves look like this:


Without additions (can you name new additions, killerguy?) reserves are constantly drawn down. Via us drawing them down.

[ROCKMAN]

vt - "...have produced and burned through half of all the recoverable oil in the world.Is this not the very definition of peak oil?"

Did you really mean to imply that you don't know the actual definition of PO?

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'v')t - "...have produced and burned through half of all the recoverable oil in the world.Is this not the very definition of peak oil?"

Did you really mean to imply that you don't know the actual definition of PO?

[ROCKMAN]

Though new offshore fields aren't as common as onshore individually they can be many times as large. The good news: given the time large between discovery and first sales the economics are not as dependent on current or even mid-term oil prices. The bad news: based upon the offshore rig dynamic operators don't seem very optimistic about longer term oil prices:

Contractors exchanged prognoses of the lean offshore period during a recent conference organized by Pareto Securities ASA in Oslo. The optimistic takeaway was that offshore rig counts have just about hit bottom and may reach there by the middle of 2017. The Energy Information Administration forecasts oil prices could see beginnings of a rebound about the same time, but partly because of their cost and sophistication, deepwater operations could trudge along some months behind.

West Africa, where the bulk of the operations are deepwater, has seen a deep dive in terms of contracted rigs as well as rigs marketed to the region according to IHS Petrodata. This is indicative of the deepwater fleet globally.

[ROCKMAN]

vt - Yes, I believe I do have a better definition of PO. Actually it isn't mine...it's Hubbert's. From wiki:

Peak oil, an event based on M. King Hubbert's theory, is the point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline. Peak oil theory is based on the observed rise, peak, fall, and depletion of aggregate production rate in oil fields over time. It is often confused with oil depletion; however, peak oil is the point of maximum production, while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply.

And if folks actually read his report instead of reading what others say he wrote there wouldn't be so many confusing and INACCURATE posts. So let's clear up some other misconceptions. For instance Hubbert clear states that the bell shaped production curve WILL NOT BE SYMETRICAL. Far too many don't understand that describing any distribution as "bell shaped" does not mean it is SYMETRICAL nor that the apex represents the midpoint of the cumulative. Hubbert SPECIFICALLY says the tail of the curve, beyond the midpoint, will stretch out longer then the first half. Which also explains why the midpoint doesn't the 50% of the URR. That very rarely happens with production from a well, a field, a trend, a basin or even an entire country. Doesn't matter small or giant field: search the cumulative production curve for Ghawar and Prudho Bay fields and you'll learn that only about 1/3 of the estimated URR was produced by the time they peaked.

But don't take my word (or Hubbert's) for it: lots of other credible sources (EIA, USGS, etc).

[vtsnowedin]

Oh I read the whole report. Just not yesterday. The shape of the tail was always immaterial. Also the final result will be modified by human interference,as forwarned is to be forarmed. KSA's is anything but random.

[ROCKMAN]

"The shape of the tail was always immaterial". The shape of the curve is absolutely critical: it is used to calculate the cumulative production vs time. IOW the area under the curve prior to the peak rate represents the pre-peak cumulative production. The area under the curve after the peak rate represents the post- peak cumulative production.

The slowly declining post-peak curves for almost all for wells, fields, trends, basins, countries, etc. have an area under the curve greater the the pre-peak area under the curve. IOW almost all post-peak production typically significantly exceed the pre-peak production. Such as Ghawar Field, Prudho Bay Field, etc.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')ctually reserves look like this:


Without additions (can you name new additions, killerguy?) reserves are constantly drawn down. Via us drawing them down.

[ROCKMAN]

Just thought of an interesting modification of that chart. Same histogram columns but break each column into different colored regions: the US, S and Central America , the ME, Russia, China, etc.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')ctually reserves look like this:


Without additions (can you name new additions, killerguy?) reserves are constantly drawn down. Via us drawing them down.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Vt, you need to bone up on your abiotic. Adam has it hid away with his corn chips.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')t's not just not tar sands or even Super-Duper Heavy (orinoco is another trillion or so). Adam's figure certainly includes Saturian Methane and the nougaty stuff in the center of the earth.

Vt, you need to bone up on your abiotic. Adam has it hid away with his corn chips.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')t's not just not tar sands or even Super-Duper Heavy (orinoco is another trillion or so). Adam's figure certainly includes Saturian Methane and the nougaty stuff in the center of the earth.

Vt, you need to bone up on your abiotic. Adam has it hid away with his corn chips.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '&')quot;The shape of the tail was always immaterial". The shape of the curve is absolutely critical: it is used to calculate the cumulative production vs time. IOW the area under the curve prior to the peak rate represents the pre-peak cumulative production. The area under the curve after the peak rate represents the post- peak cumulative production.

The slowly declining post-peak curves for almost all for wells, fields, trends, basins, countries, etc. have an area under the curve greater the the pre-peak area under the curve. IOW almost all post-peak production typically significantly exceed the pre-peak production. Such as Ghawar Field, Prudho Bay Field, etc.