PeakOil is You
Why Hubbert is right and peak-oil idiots are wrong
Re: Why Hubbert is right and peak-oil idiots are wrong
by ennui2 » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 16:33:27
In 50 years the only one still here will be PStarr who will be typing out that peak oil caused the 2008 credit crisis with the last bit of energy on his arthritic fingers.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Why Hubbert is right and peak-oil idiots are wrong
by C8 » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 18:15:37
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'I')n 50 years we can all come back to this thread and have a few laughs.
The thing that sent oil prices down was fracking
but what if fracking removes most of the remaining oil? No new tech will save things b/c there isn't much more oil left to get- it could be the end of the road.
we have yet to see the transformation from FF- we are just finding new ways to play the old game. I would feel a little bit more confident if we could move toward a post FF transition- but I see little evidence of this happening. Meanwhile, the world population is increasing dramatically.
its ridiculous how dependent we still are on FF- we are still playing the same 100+ year old game
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Re: Why Hubbert is right and peak-oil idiots are wrong
by marmico » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 18:27:23
Ya, Hubbert is a real genius. Inman's book (The Oracle of Oil) says that Hubbert predicted (projected) estimated in 1938 that the U.S. would produce no oil in 1950. Hellava peak for those lead edge baby boomers born in '46.
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Re: Why Hubbert is right and peak-oil idiots are wrong
by donstewart » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 18:36:18
pstarr
I agree on the maintenance issue. I don't have any numbers. But what I see every day is lots and lots of guys in trucks going around fixing stuff. Many of them displaying some sort of franchise symbol. My sister used to head a 'parts and repair' operation for a major auto company. She said it was the only operation that actually made money.
Don Stewart
I agree on the maintenance issue. I don't have any numbers. But what I see every day is lots and lots of guys in trucks going around fixing stuff. Many of them displaying some sort of franchise symbol. My sister used to head a 'parts and repair' operation for a major auto company. She said it was the only operation that actually made money.
Don Stewart
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Re: Why Hubbert is right and peak-oil idiots are wrong
by marmico » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 18:44:54
But what I see every day is lots and lots of guys in trucks going around fixing stuff.
Wow, Don Stewart is an anecdote. Don, hate to break it to you, but there are 325 million Americans making billions of economic decisions every day. Anecdote is not data. Going around fixing stuff is a rounding error.
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Clarification: In 1938 Hubbert predicted peak oil in 1950.
Wow, Don Stewart is an anecdote. Don, hate to break it to you, but there are 325 million Americans making billions of economic decisions every day. Anecdote is not data. Going around fixing stuff is a rounding error.
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Clarification: In 1938 Hubbert predicted peak oil in 1950.
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Re: Why Hubbert is right and peak-oil idiots are wrong
by marmico » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 19:19:53
After almost 23000 posts on peakoil.com, any sensible person would come to the conclusion that you are not well read. If I were you I would start with arithmetic on the ground floor and then move up to the psychiatric ward on the 7th floor.
For a second clarification, in 1938 Hubbert predicted peak oil in 1950 when the leading edge boomers were throwing off their diapers and getting prepared for kindergarten. Those '46 boomers made shit loads of money and now their kids and grandkids are just fine.
For a second clarification, in 1938 Hubbert predicted peak oil in 1950 when the leading edge boomers were throwing off their diapers and getting prepared for kindergarten. Those '46 boomers made shit loads of money and now their kids and grandkids are just fine.
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Re: Why Hubbert is right and peak-oil idiots are wrong
by donstewart » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 20:25:42
Since I am in the anecdote business, I will add one more thought on what I think is missing from the ETP model and all the standard economics textbook models. I don’t think we have any very deep understanding of where GDP comes from.
I think we know how a small minority can make a lot of money. They have (or steal) some bright idea and figure out how to retail it to the public without doing much actual work. Facebook and Twitter and the like come to mind. They really aren’t doing much at all, physically. And they get very rich. Of course, the people who had the second best idea mostly make nothing at all, and their investors lose their money.
At the very opposite end of the spectrum, we have the Latin American immigrants who are digging with shovels in pits dug by excavators, working in the broiling sun. The Mexicans make nothing at all, but are doing something which is a sine qua non for our technological society. Facebook and Twitter could not exist without them.
When it comes to counting GDP, the profits of the nothing invested/ huge returns operations completely overshadow the illegals toiling in the heat and the mud. Having done both kinds of work, you will never convince me that the nothing invested/ huge returns guys are all that much smarter. Put them in the pit and they would probably electrocute themselves, or be crushed by some heavy machine.
Charles Hugh Smith, whom I admire, reminds us that economic value depends on two things: people want it and, it’s scarce. If we try to figure out how that might relate to uncoupling GDP from fossil fuels, it gets very murky. It is very clear that Facebook and Twitter and Google cannot exist without a whole bunch of guys wrestling physical infrastructure into place. But the income statements of Facebook and Twitter and Google never reflect the cost of that physical infrastructure.
Hillary Clinton gave a speech at some university today or yesterday. She promised all the college students ‘a job, and a job you want to do’. Sounds good….I just have no idea how she or anyone else can go about delivering on that promise. It’s sort of like promising that 'you will have fabulous children'…without the dirty diapers and 2am feedings….and they will never grow up to be teenagers.
So I hope others are as uncertain as I am about this ‘uncoupling’ business. For right now, my money is on the fossil fuels and the hard work.
Don Stewart
I think we know how a small minority can make a lot of money. They have (or steal) some bright idea and figure out how to retail it to the public without doing much actual work. Facebook and Twitter and the like come to mind. They really aren’t doing much at all, physically. And they get very rich. Of course, the people who had the second best idea mostly make nothing at all, and their investors lose their money.
At the very opposite end of the spectrum, we have the Latin American immigrants who are digging with shovels in pits dug by excavators, working in the broiling sun. The Mexicans make nothing at all, but are doing something which is a sine qua non for our technological society. Facebook and Twitter could not exist without them.
When it comes to counting GDP, the profits of the nothing invested/ huge returns operations completely overshadow the illegals toiling in the heat and the mud. Having done both kinds of work, you will never convince me that the nothing invested/ huge returns guys are all that much smarter. Put them in the pit and they would probably electrocute themselves, or be crushed by some heavy machine.
Charles Hugh Smith, whom I admire, reminds us that economic value depends on two things: people want it and, it’s scarce. If we try to figure out how that might relate to uncoupling GDP from fossil fuels, it gets very murky. It is very clear that Facebook and Twitter and Google cannot exist without a whole bunch of guys wrestling physical infrastructure into place. But the income statements of Facebook and Twitter and Google never reflect the cost of that physical infrastructure.
Hillary Clinton gave a speech at some university today or yesterday. She promised all the college students ‘a job, and a job you want to do’. Sounds good….I just have no idea how she or anyone else can go about delivering on that promise. It’s sort of like promising that 'you will have fabulous children'…without the dirty diapers and 2am feedings….and they will never grow up to be teenagers.
So I hope others are as uncertain as I am about this ‘uncoupling’ business. For right now, my money is on the fossil fuels and the hard work.
Don Stewart
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Re: Why Hubbert is right and peak-oil idiots are wrong
by AdamB » Wed 21 Sep 2016, 00:06:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Observerbrb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'S')um - "The Etp model has a very practical utility. It forecasts that oil prices will continue to decline." Great! Then tell me who is using it and how they are doing so. Are you using it to make investment decisions?
Yes. I have made a decision not to invest in oil. LOL.
You can always go "short on oil" (bet that oil prices will go down).
If someone had followed Steve Ludlum's advice back in 2012, he could have won a ton of cash.
SYG won't bet any more than Whats his name would. Or Starving Lion. They talk...or more like whine..but they certainly don't have the courage of their convictions, and they won't even bet easy things, like leaving here when they are proven wrong in various ways, for example when the oil price breaks the Etp line as whats his name was scared to death of, or Starving Lion of anyone proving that money really is worth something. Take a buck down to the corner store and see for yourself. So they react in an expected way, running away from anything that might require them being wrong. Because they already know they are just making stuff up. They are perfect peak oilers in that regard.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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