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Is peak oil dead?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby SumYunGai » Sun 18 Sep 2016, 19:22:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'M')odern economics relies on cheap energy.

I have no idea about anything else he said, but this part is true.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', 'I')t is obvious that oil prices over $100 per barrel are not good for the economy. But rockdoc123 tries to claim that the biggest oil spike in history ($147.50) had absolutely no effect on the economy. He cannot support his wild claim logically, so instead he tries to pompously claim that every economist in the world agrees with him. This has been proven false.

If it is so obvious then please show us exactly your proof?

Image

Look at the run up in oil prices from 4004-2008. That is the biggest oil spike in history. When oil reached around $100 per barrel, the housing bubble began to pop. The proof is logical. Since the economy runs on the energy from oil, it is very sensitive to the oil price. If the oil price rises a little, it produces a little drag on the economy. If the oil price rises a lot, it produces a lot of drag. Why wouldn't it?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'W')hat you have been shown is that fro 3.5 years oil prices hovered above $100/bbl and during that period global GDP continued to increase and global oil demand/consumption continued to increase. How many times do we have to show the same plots? The run up to $140 oil also had no impact on GDP or consumption the flattening in GDP after 2008 as result of the financial crisis not the other way around.

Image

The chart you keep showing is US GDP adjusted for inflation. It proves nothing. We are talking about WORLD GDP.

The point is that we know very high oil prices are not good for the economy. We had very high oil prices leading up to the Great Recession. That is a fact. So you have to to do more than offer an alternate view of the cause that ignores the high oil price. You also have to explain logically why the record high oil prices had absolutely no effect on the economy, since that is your claim. Good luck.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'A')s to what the reasons for the great recession were you may have found an outlier who disagrees with pretty much everyone else including The National Commission report:

So what? That is an argument from authority. Try making an argument from logic if you can.
Last edited by SumYunGai on Sun 18 Sep 2016, 19:42:03, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby dissident » Sun 18 Sep 2016, 22:22:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')

Image


This figure confirms the link between oil price spikes and GDP stagnation aka recession. See the plateau in the GDP during the oil embargo, Iran-Iraq war and and 2006 onward. The stupid thick dashed black line obscures the red GDP line where you see contractions.

Why do people expect the GDP to shrink secularly? We have not encountered oil price increases that were totally unaffordable and shut down economic activity. But the price increases did constrict consumer disposable cash.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby SumYunGai » Sun 18 Sep 2016, 22:42:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('harrisonlw', 'S')imply dismissing an argument as an appeal to authority is intellectually lazy, especially when the authority is a majority of economists and economic groups who have formed a consensus as to the likely causes of the GR.

Majority of economists? Argumentum ad populum. It is not proof of anything.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('harrisonlw', 'I')t isn't fallacious to cite evidence-based research.

That is why I mentioned the work of Jim Hamilton.

The problem is that citing dueling authorities as an argument goes nowhere. That is why I asked for a LOGICAL reason why the Great Oil Spike should be totally discounted as a cause of the Great Recession. I notice you don't have one either.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('harrisonlw', 'I') note that the EIA believes that oil supply will meet demand through to 2040.

And you take their word for it without question. That is just blind obedience to authority.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 18 Sep 2016, 23:47:56

L$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'o')ok at the run up in oil prices from 4004-2008. That is the biggest oil spike in history. When oil reached around $100 per barrel, the housing bubble began to pop. The proof is logical. Since the economy runs on the energy from oil, it is very sensitive to the oil price. If the oil price rises a little, it produces a little drag on the economy. If the oil price rises a lot, it produces a lot of drag. Why wouldn't it

Ok the proof isn’t logical at all….what you are pointing to is correlation and then suggesting it means causation…it doesn’t, it never has as some here keep showing you with the posts of weirdly correlated factors. This is just…”I want my theory to be right so I will use the correlation to prove it”. What I’ve shown is that theory doesn’t work because …I’m sorry non-correlation actually does mean non causation.

The chart you keep showing is US GDP adjusted for inflation. It proves nothing. We are talking about WORLD GDP.


Complete BS…I’ve shown the world GDP numbers a number of times and I will so again. You are just trying to twist the argument here and looking stupid as a result.

Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he point is that we know very high oil prices are not good for the economy. We had very high oil prices leading up to the Great Recession. That is a fact. So you have to to do more than offer an alternate view of the cause that ignores the high oil price. You also have to explain logically why the record high oil prices had absolutely no effect on the economy, since that is your claim. Good luck.

Alternative view? Where the heck is your mind wandering around. I provided a number of links to bankers and financial analysts and ….hold on the commission that was struck by the US government to look into the causes of the recession and the working group for that was comprised of financial analysts, economists etc. Hardly an alternative view it is the main view. To argue otherwise puts you in the realm of conspiracy theorists. And exactly what data do you have to support your view that high oil prices are not good for the economy? You have nothing. And asking me to prove high oil prices had no effect....look at the charts, GDP and consumption were not affected. Can you show us all something other than your "logical assumption" that backs up your claim? I think not.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o what? That is an argument from authority. Try making an argument from logic if you can

What? Are you a complete idiot? The US government struck this commission to investigate why the recession happened. The working group is comprised of people who do this sort of analysis for a living (ie economists, financial analysts folks with MBA's etc) . And my argument from logic has been put to you a number of times….global GDP increased and global demand increased throughout the whole period of oil prices hovering over $100/bbl. What you have is a belief system…you want it to all work towards your ETP BS so you just state..”this happened because of this” with zero proof and then ignore any data that gets in your way.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby SumYunGai » Mon 19 Sep 2016, 01:13:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', 'L')ook at the run up in oil prices from 4004-2008. That is the biggest oil spike in history. When oil reached around $100 per barrel, the housing bubble began to pop. The proof is logical. Since the economy runs on the energy from oil, it is very sensitive to the oil price. If the oil price rises a little, it produces a little drag on the economy. If the oil price rises a lot, it produces a lot of drag. Why wouldn't it?

Ok the proof isn’t logical at all….what you are pointing to is correlation and then suggesting it means causation

Nope. I just asked you: "The proof is logical. Since the economy runs on the energy from oil, it is very sensitive to the oil price. If the oil price rises a little, it produces a little drag on the economy. If the oil price rises a lot, it produces a lot of drag. Why wouldn't it?" You didn't answer the question.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', 'T')he chart you keep showing is US GDP adjusted for inflation. It proves nothing. We are talking about WORLD GDP.

Complete BS…I’ve shown the world GDP numbers a number of times and I will so again. You are just trying to twist the argument here and looking stupid as a result.

Image

Dissident just showed how misleading one of your charts is. This one is also very misleading. Your chart above is from the World Bank. It is in International Dollars, whatever that is. Here is another chart of the exact same thing from the same World Bank, except this chart is in good old US Dollars:

Image

Oops. You're going to need some new graphs.

Wow. World GDP per Capita has already fallen further since 2014 than it did in the whole Great Recession! I did not know that till just now. Thanks, rockdoc, for making me look closely at your deception so that we could all finally see the truth more clearly.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', 'T')he point is that we know very high oil prices are not good for the economy. We had very high oil prices leading up to the Great Recession. That is a fact. So you have to to do more than offer an alternate view of the cause that ignores the high oil price. You also have to explain logically why the record high oil prices had absolutely no effect on the economy, since that is your claim. Good luck.
Alternative view? Where the heck is your mind wandering around. I provided a number of links to bankers and financial analysts and ….hold on the commission that was struck by the US government to look into the causes of the recession and the working group for that was comprised of financial analysts, economists etc. Hardly an alternative view it is the main view. To argue otherwise puts you in the realm of conspiracy theories.
I did not argue otherwise. You are just trying to twist my words by changing my intended meaning of "alternative view". I did not mean that your sources weren't mainstream. I just suggested that counting up who has the most authoritative sources was getting us nowhere. I said it would be better to have an argument based on logic. Then I asked you a logical question. You have provided no answer. Instead you just re-re-reassert your claim to authority. This is boring.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'C')an you show us all something other than your "logical assumption" that backs up your claim? I think not.
Why would I need to provide something other than my logical assumption if you have yet to refute my original logical assumption that backs up my claim?

Any increase in the oil price is money that the consumer no longer has to spend on other things. This is a drag on the economy. Using logic, can you refute my logical statement? Of course not. That is why you keep changing the subject.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', 'S')o what? That is an argument from authority. Try making an argument from logic if you can
What? Are you a complete idiot?
Completely uncalled for ad hom. This makes having a rational discussion with you very difficult.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 19 Sep 2016, 08:26:00

Harrison - "By unconventional I suppose I mean unconventional sources , as in tight, heavy, sands and shale." Thanks to the Internet the terms conventional and unconventional oil have become meaningless because they can mean anything a poster wishes to assign to them. If you want to know how the oil companies define them: most important there is no such thing as conventional and unconventional OIL. Those terms describe the reservoir not the oil. More specifically they describe the character of the porosity and permeability. In broad terms a conventional reservoir is composed of intergranular porosity. Like the pores between the sand grains. It could be very porous and permeable and flow 5,000 bopd or very tite and pump 2 bopd. In either case it's a conventional reservoir. Likewise the oil could be 55 API condensate or 8 API crap...still a conventional reservoir.

And the typical unconventional reservoir primarily produces from FRACTURES...natural or manmade. And it can be shale, sandstone or limestone. And even though extremely rare, granite.

They important distinction is the flow characteristics. An unconventional reservoir can have very high initial flow rates. Fractures can have permeability many times greater then the best conventional reservoirs. But the volume contained in those fractures can be very low. Thus the classic very high initial flow rate followed by a very rapid decline as the small porosity volume is drained.

Conventional reservoirs might have a huge volume of porosity or very little in the case of a tite (actually implie low porosity) reservoir. But in both cases the decline is relatively slow. Unless, of course, the reservoir itself is very small.

And thus the endless and pointless arguments as folks mix the definitions up. I usually don't correct folks anymore because they are so invested in their misconceptions.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby davep » Mon 19 Sep 2016, 08:41:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't believe in a conspiracy of bankers, speculators, or a deliberately opaque economic system.


When the Bank of England explains in detail how modern economies work (yes, 97% of broad money comes from private bank loans) we're no longer in conspiracy territory. It's a pretty good read. So, before concluding I'm just a crackpot conspiracy theorist, try reading the stuff I link to. It's not too long either (unlike the IMF's Chicago Plan research document, which is great but quite heavy going).
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 19 Sep 2016, 13:26:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'y')es davep, I finally agree. There is a bankster conspiracy: to convince you central banks have policy and control, that economics is a science, and that it trumps natural systems.


Nah, it doesn't trump natural systems, and has no need to. It only needs to evaluate the current natural system and express its monetary value in a continuously increasing numerical measure. The illusion is that real growth is necessary. But it is not.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby C8 » Mon 19 Sep 2016, 21:49:57

Sometimes what seems like a positive event actually sets up a disaster.

I am beginning to wonder if fracking may be the thing that brings on PO for real. Human population is defying all predictions and growing rapidly- cheap energy does this. More people = more FF demand.

Yes we innovated and found ways to get more oil but what if there isn't much left in the ground after fracking?

I have grown more pessimistic over the last 3 years that any industrial society can be run on renewable energy. Any electric based system adds tons of extra costs in terms of storage, transmission, etc. It may be too much.

PO is dead like Jason Voorhees is dead

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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 00:58:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'S')ometimes what seems like a positive event actually sets up a disaster.

I am beginning to wonder if fracking may be the thing that brings on PO for real. Human population is defying all predictions and growing rapidly- cheap energy does this. More people = more FF demand.

Yes we innovated and found ways to get more oil but what if there isn't much left in the ground after fracking?

I have grown more pessimistic over the last 3 years that any industrial society can be run on renewable energy. Any electric based system adds tons of extra costs in terms of storage, transmission, etc. It may be too much.

PO is dead like Jason Voorhees is dead

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Note the silence from the shillboys on the Netherlands?

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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 08:42:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('harrisonlw', 'T')he study of economics and econometrics in relation to oil and its macroeconomic effects is rather complex. It doesn't allow for a simple series of logical statements. Reductive doesn't even begin to describe some posters' attempts of posting GDP and oil price charts to prove their arguments. Hamilton's net oil price increase model is critiqued in some detail in this paper (http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp ... dp1114.pdf). It is well worth a read.

I'd like to restate my question from before because I'd like to know other people's thoughts: will total oil supply meet demand of 107 mb/d by 2040 (as per IEA WEO15)?

Demand could feasibly be a lot less than this (or a lot more) but I'd say that with stability in the Middle East and oil prices north of where they are today then supply easily meets demand. I note that the EIA believes that oil supply will meet demand through to 2040.


Respectfully I would like to point out the metric is wrong. Demand and supply always balance due to economics, if 107 MM/bbl/d of oil is being produced in 2040 it will only be because that quantity can be produced at a price that allows 107 MM/bbl/d to be consumed. If the economy is weak or the price is too high for whatever economy exists demand will be restricted. I do not doubt as some do that we could artificially synthesize 107/mm/bbl/d of oil products be using energy from other sources to manufacture those products. Doing so however is not a cheap low cost energy supply, it is converting other energy sources into liquid fuel storage for use in conventional engines that are the bulk of liquid fuel consumption today.

In a Utopian world the Nuclear plus Renewables are the energy inputs and the atmosphere supplies CO2 and H2O which are synthesized into liquid hydrocarbons and methane without accessing fossil carbon sources. In the real world so long as fossil carbon remains so cheap compared to those synthetic carbon molecules almost everyone will keep digging up coal and drilling for oil and natural gas and even digging up bitumen sands to make liquid fuels. The only reason Coal mining has been falling to the wayside in the USA and EU has been the low cost of Natural Gas, it has zero to do with environmental progress. If or when the price of natural gas returns to its historical norms coal will reclaim the lowest cost fossil fuel position and you will see a massive push to construct new facilities burning coal.

I have pointed out innumerable times that Environmental laws are made by human politicians to serve human politicians, the day those laws no longer serve those politicians they are replaced by other laws that do serve.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 09:31:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')I have pointed out innumerable times that Environmental laws are made by human politicians to serve human politicians, the day those laws no longer serve those politicians they are replaced by other laws that do serve.


Maybe you have to keep pointing this out many times because it's simply your cynical opinion and not a universally accepted fact.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 10:05:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')I have pointed out innumerable times that Environmental laws are made by human politicians to serve human politicians, the day those laws no longer serve those politicians they are replaced by other laws that do serve.


Maybe you have to keep pointing this out many times because it's simply your cynical opinion and not a universally accepted fact.


Neither cynicism on my part nor denial on your part change anything. Germany is rated as a great environmental leader, but they are building more coal burning facilities even as I type. Turkey has limited Natural Gas and border with Russia and Iran both that are eager to sell, but they are building a large number of coal fired electric plants because they have cheap domestic coal. India has to import natural gas but has abundant coal and abundant thorium for nuclear power. They have chosen Coal over the alternatives and are building additional coal fired power and mining coal because it is the cheapest alternative. China and Russia are both building some new nuclear power which is low carbon, but the bulk of their electricity comes from coal and China is still building a new coal fired power plant every week, often more than one. Just because they have slowed from one every 3 days to one every 5 days does not mean they are turning away from Coal, they are just not expanding use as fast as they were in the previous decade.

Politicians serve politicians. Statesmen serve the population and the future. Maybe you think all the politicians around the world have undergone a road to Damascus level of conversion, but I don't see one iota of evidence of that having taken place.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 10:46:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')Politicians serve politicians. Statesmen serve the population and the future. Maybe you think all the politicians around the world have undergone a road to Damascus level of conversion, but I don't see one iota of evidence of that having taken place.


Nothing you stated above supports your claim that "politicians serve politicians". If you could prove that there's this groundswell of public pressure to go green that is then stifled by politicians greenwashing, then maybe you'd have a case. But why do you think I was taking Planty to task in the other thread for being a paper tiger whining about NGL trains while crowing about Alaska's oil wealth or taking long recreational plane flights? Or what about Rockman thinking he can vigorously pursue an oil patch career while being taken seriously making supposedly sincere pro-environmental policy suggestions? Being an eco-hypocrite has nothing to do with politicians serving politicians. It's everybody.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 14:47:42

Ecologically minded voters are in the minority and they should stop expecting politicians to do what they want. Politicians serve the lowest-common-denominator, hence the likelihood of a president Trump.

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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby SumYunGai » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 15:44:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'E')cologically minded voters are in the minority and they should stop expecting politicians to do what they want. Politicians serve the lowest-common-denominator, hence the likelihood of a president Trump.

What the hell are you talking about?

Peak oil is not dead, but I guess this thread is.
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