[SumYunGai]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'T')o be honest I have not read that paper you cited. From your outline this makes compelling sense. I am not confident of my forecast, it may work out the way you say especially given that our Economy has integrated into globalization so much. Perhaps, my faith lies in the ability to transition quickly to a Command Economy as we sort of did during WWII. Also because unlike many places we in the US have a more favorable resource to population ratio. All quite tenuous but gotta keep some faith alive. I realize all this is assuming the ability to maintain social order, that is not a given

[onlooker]

Yep rather than the tedious personal bickering

[Hawkcreek]

It is important to remember that Peak Oil is not about when the Saudi's will peak, or when the USA will peak (or possibly re-peak).
It is not important whether or not the worldwide peak comes from lack of supply, lack of demand, or lack of cash or credit to produce the oil that is still down there.
It is not about how many prophets called the peak dates totally wrong. This is the red herring that irritates me. The date does not matter.
All those just muddy the waters about the fact - Peak Oil is coming, and it will have an effect (or is already having an effect) on the lives of everyone on Earth. Our "unlimited growth" societies will stop growing.
How can a concept that will affect EVERYONE, be considered dead?

[Hawkcreek]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'T')o be honest I have not read that paper you cited. From your outline this makes compelling sense. I am not confident of my forecast, it may work out the way you say especially given that our Economy has integrated into globalization so much. Perhaps, my faith lies in the ability to transition quickly to a Command Economy as we sort of did during WWII. Also because unlike many places we in the US have a more favorable resource to population ratio. All quite tenuous but gotta keep some faith alive. I realize all this is assuming the ability to maintain social order, that is not a given

[Kylon]

Unfortunately no, the effects of peak oil are not dead.

There may be more unconventional oil, but that oil has lower EROEI or energy returned on energy invested.

If the EROEI gets too low, complex society can't be maintained.

Another way to look at it, is if the overall price/cost of getting the oil out of the ground, exceeds the value of the oil your getting out of the ground, then ultimately that will lead to bankruptcy.

Many energy companies are suffering from massive debts that may be impossible to pay off.

Many shale wells have a fast rate of depletion (the production doesn't last as many number of years)

Without the continued influx of cash to create new shale wells, the glut is going to disappear.

The massive number of bankruptcies mean investors may avoid investing in oil again. That means that there may not be another shale boom.

That doesn't mean that oil will become 200 dollars a barrel.

What it does mean however, is that oil may move up to whatever price is needed to cause demand destruction to reduce it's consumption, thereby limiting it's supply. That being 60 dollars a barrel or 500.

Peak oil is still an unfortunate problem. It was simply delayed by the use of massive amounts of debt/capital/seed corn.

[ROCKMAN]

What are conventional vs unconventional oils? First, neither exist. But here's a definition misused by many folks...especially the MSM:

"What is unconventional oil? Unconventional oil is petroleum produced or extracted using techniques other than the conventional (oil well) method. Oil industries and governments across the globe are investing in unconventional oil sources due to the increasing scarcity of conventional oil reserves."

Second folks can use what definition they like. But given the various meanings it makes many conversations confusing. There are conventional and unconventional RESERVOIRS. As far as the rediculous definition above they don't define what techniques are "conventional" so the entire definition is meaningless. So what is a conventional extraction technique? An unconventional technique: A vertical well? A horizontal well? A frac'd well? A completed well that hasn't been frac'd? A well completed in a tite (low porosity/low permeability) rock whether it's frac'd or not?

Here's the confusion: there have been tens of thousands of tite reservoirs completed conventionally; there have been tens of thousands of conventional reservoirs that have been frac'd. There are thousands of horizontal wells drilled in conventional reservoirs; and the permutation s continue. So is it unconventional oil that's produced from a horizontal well bore in a very porous and permeable rock? Is it conventional oil produced from a tite rock if the well was vertical and not frac'd?

Does the cost of the well determine the classification of the oil? Many consider Deep Water wells costing $100+ million to be producing unconventional oil despite the fact those reservoirs are very conventional. Are the Canadian oil sands production conventional or unconventional? Some consider such oil as unconventional regardless of how it's extracted because its low viscosity and composition.

So then: what constitutes conventional and unconventional RESERVOIRS? I'll let others offer the views first.

[ralfy]

It's dead only if production per capita didn't peak during the late 1970s, we're no longer resorting to shale, etc., and production cost has plummeted.

[ennui2]

Being able to "call" peak oil by itself is academic at best. Peak oil as a concept of any appreciable concern is alive only if you can attribute enough hardship to it. That's why so much of the discussion here is an attempt to correlate anything bad that happens in the world to peak oil when usually it's disconnected.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('regardingpo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('regardingpo', '
')It's no wonder no-one on this site can stand you, you seem to only be interested in feuding with people.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'M')y two cents as others can speak more authoritatively on this subject is the following. First, oil depletion is a physical reality.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('regardingpo', '
')Resource wars in a world where everyone is armed to the teeth, and many sides have nuclear weapons (some are still in the process of obtaining them). That doesn't seem like something to look forward to.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Lets return to this topic after Ghawar peaks---which it is very close to doing. Peak Oil theory will seem a lot more viable then.

Cheers!

[onlooker]

There goes Adam saying we haven't all died therefore, good times must be ahead. Sheesh, talk about correlation is not causation.

[onlooker]

So Simmons was essentially correct about everything P, except his timing was a bit premature uh?