Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
Post a reply

Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby sparky » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 08:14:33

.
this blog is about hydrocarbon extraction (mostly )
your comment " fossil fuel theory is a big mistake of modern science" seems flippant to some of us
Do you mind expanding a bit on this ,
User avatar
sparky
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3587
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Sydney , OZ
Top

Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 08 Sep 2016, 13:03:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')ctually reserves look like this:

Image
Without additions (can you name new additions, killerguy?) reserves are constantly drawn down. Via us drawing them down.


Those volumes don't match what 7D seismic was run on, so in your amateurish world, they can't be reserves.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 08 Sep 2016, 13:36:44

7D seismic??? Did we just slip into a different dimension? A parallel universe? Or is that a typo for "3d"? LOL.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS
Top

Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby SumYunGai » Thu 08 Sep 2016, 13:53:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '7')D seismic??? Did we just slip into a different dimension? A parallel universe? Or is that a typo for "3d"? LOL.

No. He actually meant 7D. AdamB is very advanced. His innovative 7D seismic system allowed him to create his groundbreaking sine wave theory of oil production. LOL.
User avatar
SumYunGai
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 421
Joined: Fri 29 Jul 2016, 21:02:21
Top

Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 08 Sep 2016, 14:11:26

Then 7d is beyond this simple geologist's capabilities. I can only count to 5d on one hand...gotta keep the other hand free for pointing out the 5 dimensions.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS
Top

Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 08 Sep 2016, 19:57:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '7')D seismic??? Did we just slip into a different dimension? A parallel universe? Or is that a typo for "3d"? LOL.


Pstarr has previously claimed that only multi-dimensional nodal analysis and 5D/6D/7D? seismic can be used to book something as a reserve, this based on the undoubtedly fine lessons taught at the Stoner Instructional Complex.

I just thought it was a bit ironic to see him now claiming something else. His reality seems to...flex....occasionally.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 08 Sep 2016, 19:59:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '7')D seismic??? Did we just slip into a different dimension? A parallel universe? Or is that a typo for "3d"? LOL.

No. He actually meant 7D. AdamB is very advanced. His innovative 7D seismic system allowed him to create his groundbreaking sine wave theory of oil production. LOL.


Hip hip hurrah for state of the art oil production rate predicting models! Being prototyped right here in 'Murica!

Image
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 08 Sep 2016, 20:06:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')I just thought it was a bit ironic to see him now claiming something else. His reality seems to...flex....occasionally.


He claims whatever he thinks will deliver the end of suburbia(TM) that he's been dreaming of for so long.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3920
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 10:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld
Top

Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 09:53:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')I just thought it was a bit ironic to see him now claiming something else. His reality seems to...flex....occasionally.


He claims whatever he thinks will deliver the end of suburbia(TM) that he's been dreaming of for so long.


He is frustrated. Think about how long his misanthropy had been simmering, waiting for the right opportunity. And the one day..peak oil came along, and his dreams and prayers had been answered! Finally, a rock solid science based method to crush those whom he despised, all he had to do was build some solar panels and maybe herd some goats and grow some veggies and there he would be, last man standing!

And then...reality happened. Expected reality, because we know names and organizations that didn't fall for the schemes and pseudo science he had placed his hopes and dreams in, and now he is stuck. Stuck with his misanthropy, stuck with peak oil and those who wanted it to be their rapture event being laughed at, stuck with all the those people he was secretly hoping peak oil would just disappear. So he is allowed some space to mourn, mourn the removal of the rock above the dark places where the misanthropes play and scheme, mourn the obvious exposure of what learning at the Stoner Instructional Complex is worth. Not much.

So i think we should go easy on him, as he bides his time for the next recycling of bad ideas, because certainly they didn't teach the basics about what is going to happen next to his ideas, even though Einstein made it perfectly clear. Of course, he never studied at the Stoner Instructional Complex I imagine, but he did know exactly what to think of those who just...keep...repeating...the...same...ideas...and...hoping...for...a...different...result.

Image
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 12:04:29

pstarr - "You flacks aren't the first industry shills..." Just a friendly reminder: the Rockman is the official "industry shill" in these here parts. And his ego has a bit of a problem sharing the spotlight with any wanna-be shills. And certainly has no intention of sharing the Blue Bell ice cream vouchers he gets from ExxonMobil with any of them.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS
Top

Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 12:09:01

Just to offer an obvious point for the millionth time...

When oil depletion causes a shortfall in supply, prices will go UP.

ETP's inverse logic makes no sense and exists solely to, as I always say, keep restless peakers rooted in the pews rather than losing patience, clocking out, and becoming astrologers, etc...

The conclusion from the above is...

It's still a glut!
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3920
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 10:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld
Top

Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 13:15:54

pstarr - "...and industry plant." OK...last warning: stop letting others try to steal my status as THE oil patch representative. Please don't make me hurt you, buddy. LOL.

On a more serious note it is interesting we haven't seen more comments from the cornies about the "3 billion bbl" Apache discovery. Perhaps they've learned they can longer get away with pitching "resources" as "reserves".
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS
Top

Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 13:28:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')I challenge you investment-scamming shills to name a new significant reserve addition. Just one.


Ignoring this classic example of "foot in mouth" disease it is important to remember that from 2014 onwards there has been almost no exploration drilling due to the collapse in prices. Exploration spending is always the first to go when cost-cutting measures are needed. As a consequence the information we should look at is up to the end of 2013.

Rather than one significant discovery I'll mention all of the Giant discoveries made in 2013 as cataloged by WoodMac

Oil
Hassi Toulmet, Sonatrach, Algeria, 500 MMBOE
Ogo, Afren, offshore Nigeria, 770 MMBOE
Lontra, Cobalt, offshore Angola, 740 MMBOE
Iara Entorno, Petrobras, offshore Brazil, 585 MMBOE
Bay du Nord, Statoil, offshore Canada, 400 MMBOE

Gas
Salamat, BP, North Damietta Offshore concession, Egypt. 790 MMBOE.
WQ4N, Wintershall, Qatar, 530 MMBOE
D55, Reliance, offshore India, 500 MMBBOE
Orca, Anadarko, offshore Mozambique, 739 MMBOE
Espadarte, Anadarko, offshore Mozambique, 1232 MMBOE
Auilha, ENI, offshore Mozambique, 739 MMBOE
Tangawizi, Statoil, offshore Tanganyika, 616 MMBOE

In terms of giant discoveries there isn't much of a trend over the last decade, the numbers remaining about the same
Image

Of course there are also significant discoveries beyond giants in 2013. According to WoodMac in 2013 the industry added 16 billion boe, about half oil, half gas. Over the last decade the average annual addition of reserves has been 15 billion boe.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e can create our own database of stupid industry disinformation. Fun!


You should obviously call up Chevron and tell them they don't know what they are talking about. :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')AN RAMON, Calif., December 2, 2014 – Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) announced that crude oil and natural gas production has begun at the Jack/St. Malo project in the Lower Tertiary trend, deepwater U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Jack/St. Malo is a key part of Chevron’s strong queue of upstream projects and was delivered on time and on budget.

The Jack and St. Malo fields are among the largest in the Gulf of Mexico. They were discovered in 2004 and 2003, respectively, and production from the first development stage is expected to ramp up over the next several years to a total daily rate of 94,000 barrels of crude oil and 21 million cubic feet of natural gas. With a planned production life of more than 30 years, current technologies are anticipated to recover in excess of 500 million oil-equivalent barrels. Successive development phases, which could employ enhanced recovery technologies, may enable substantially increased recovery at the fields.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n a more serious note it is interesting we haven't seen more comments from the cornies about the "3 billion bbl" Apache discovery. Perhaps they've learned they can longer get away with pitching "resources" as "reserves".

This argument goes both ways given that higher prices result in resources converted to reserves. Discoveries require drilling to elevate them through the the resource reserve pyramid as you well know. At least some of Apaches shale play will be categorized as reserves given they are producing some of the wells they have drilled at reduced rates (the company notes they are constrained by infrastructure at this point). From a realistic look at this they have simply treated it as anyone would a basin centered play. They suggest a per well EOR ranging from under 100,000 boe to around 400,000 boe which is somewhat like the range in other plays. They have 9 wells on production at this point. It's early days, they say there is a potential 2000 locations (easy to calculate...4 wells per pad, X pads per section etc).

Although playing up large reserves at this point in time is bad form it is also dangerous to suggest there is nothing there. Doing so puts you in the camp of cranks.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7685
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 03:00:00
Top
PreviousNext
Post a reply

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests



cron