[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat is a really quite astounding post. Of course this is different. We have picked all the easy and low-hanging oil fruit our technology and economy allows. We failed to produce the last remaining difficult fields; arctic, ultra-deep, Kashagan et al. We failed at $100/barrel. Not likely to be produced at $40. Or $30.

[StarvingLion]

Here I'll employ rocdoc "logic",,,

Future procurement of next generation weapons systems:

# of Zumwalt-class destroyers: 3
# of B-21 Stealth Bombers: 3

There were supposed to be 120 B-2 Bombers and only 20 were built sitting in special enclosures because its too expensive to fly them. Now only a maximum of *3* B-21's will be built IF EVEN 1 EVER DOES GET BUILT.

According to rocdoc "nothing has changed, everything is fine"...

The point is that replacing high oil prices with a junk currency doesn't fix the problem. It leads to currency collapse. rocdoc is basically saying peak oil will never affect the Oil Industry because we intend to defeat it by destroying the currency instead.

[onlooker]

So either the Oil Industry is destroyed or the currency instead. What a choice uh

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut it won't stop you industry guys from trying to lure in another sucker.

[Observerbrb]

Well, we just have witnessed the biggest Oil inventory drawdown in a week in almost 20 years

zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 2m2 minutes ago
Crude drawdown -12.08MMbbl, exp: +906Kbbl: API

zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 2m2 minutes ago
Crude Spikes After Massive Inventory Drawdown (Most Since Jan 1999)

If this same pattern holds up in the coming months, OIl prices will surely recover (though I wouldn't hold my breath for it ).

Edit: It seems that we can explain this drawdown by the storms in the Gulf of Mexico.

The biggest crude inventory draw since Jan 1999... We presume this massive drop is some reflection of the shut-ins from the Gulf thanks to the storms. NOTE - in 2013, there was a 10mm-plus barrel draw during a heavy storm season in The Gulf and also in 2009 during a heavy storm season.

[SumYunGai]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Observerbrb', 'I')f this same pattern holds up in the coming months, OIl prices will surely recover (though I wouldn't hold my breath for it ).

[ROCKMAN]

"It seems that we can explain this drawdown by the storms in the Gulf of Mexico". From Reuters: "Crude inventories fell 12.1 million barrels in the week to Sept. 2 to 514 million barrels, compared with expectations for an increase of 225,000 barrels.

Also from Reuters: "Operators shut down about 11.5 percent of oil production and 5.5 percent of natural gas output in the gulf by midday on Monday, according to the Bureau of Environmental Safety and Enforcement."

That's about 350,000 bopd and 350 million cubic feet per day. I doubt the shut down lasted more the 3 days. So let's be generous and use 5 days: that's 1.75 million bbls of production lost. IOW about 15% of the drawdown replaced the storm lost oil. So it seems something else may be at play.

Also good to remember that much of the stored oil is owned by contango speculators. Also remember their plan: buy low...sell high. Whatever profits that might be had is only monitized WHEN THEY SELL THEIR OIL. Also remember they get a storage bill every month. Also remember any profit that might be made selling their oil at some point in time can evaporate if prices start trending lower (or even if the speculators just think they're going lower). Also remember some refineries shut down for a variety of reasons and thus lowered demand a bit.

IOW the entire supply/demand dynamic has a number of moving parts and can thus be difficult to tell which tails are wagging what dogs. LOL.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '&')quot;It seems that we can explain this drawdown by the storms in the Gulf of Mexico". From Reuters: "Crude inventories fell 12.1 million barrels in the week to Sept. 2 to 514 million barrels, compared with expectations for an increase of 225,000 barrels.

Also from Reuters: "Operators shut down about 11.5 percent of oil production and 5.5 percent of natural gas output in the gulf by midday on Monday, according to the Bureau of Environmental Safety and Enforcement."

That's about 350,000 bopd and 350 million cubic feet per day. I doubt the shut down lasted more the 3 days. So let's be generous and use 5 days: that's 1.75 million bbls of production lost. IOW about 15% of the drawdown replaced the storm lost oil. So it seems something else may be at play.

Also good to remember that much of the stored oil is owned by contango speculators. Also remember their plan: buy low...sell high. Whatever profits that might be had is only monitized WHEN THEY SELL THEIR OIL. Also remember they get a storage bill every month. Also remember any profit that might be made selling their oil at some point in time can evaporate if prices start trending lower (or even if the speculators just think they're going lower). Also remember some refineries shut down for a variety of reasons and thus lowered demand a bit.

IOW the entire supply/demand dynamic has a number of moving parts and can thus be difficult to tell which tails are wagging what dogs. LOL.

[ROCKMAN]

T - From the EIA: for the first 6 months of 2016 we averaged 480,000 bbls of crude exported per day. But the more significant number is how much refinery products we've exported during the same time period: 4.7 MILLION bbls per day...refinery products made from oil pulled from our storage systems. IOW about 10X as much exported crude oil.

Perhaps India or China. Or just keep selling to the Canadians: this year they've gotten 300,000 bopd of the 480,000 bopd we've exported. Doesn't cost as much to ship to them.

BTW that 480,000 bbls/day of oil we exported this year compares to the 458,000 bbls/day of oil we EXPORTED in 2015 before the POTUS lifted the so called US oil export "ban". LOL. Yeah, I'm so much better at digging out such FACTS then the MSM. Hell, it took me almost 60 seconds to pull up the numbers to prove there never was a ban on exporting US oil. LOL. Do you remember the amount of US oil we've exported since the " ban" was passed into law? Again according to the EIA: 1.5 BILLION BBLS. But that did take me 3 minutes to dig up. Mostly because I had to add each year since they didn't post a running cumulative. LOL.

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'R')OCKMAN you are better at finding data than almost anyone around here so I will ask you. How much oil has the USA been exporting from storage lately? Seems like if you bought a few million barrels back in January this might be an auspicious time to ship it off to India or China for sale at a good profit.

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'T') - From the EIA: for the first 6 months of 2016 we averaged 480,000 bbls of crude exported per day. But the more significant number is how much refinery products we've exported during the same time period: 4.7 MILLION bbls per day...refinery products made from oil pulled from our storage systems. IOW about 10X as much exported crude oil.

Perhaps India or China. Or just keep selling to the Canadians: this year they've gotten 300,000 bopd of the 480,000 bopd we've exported. Doesn't cost as much to ship to them.

BTW that 480,000 bbls/day of oil we exported this year compares to the 458,000 bbls/day of oil we EXPORTED in 2015 before the POTUS lifted the so called US oil export "ban". LOL. Yeah, I'm so much better at digging out such FACTS then the MSM. Hell, it took me almost 60 seconds to pull up the numbers to prove there never was a ban on exporting US oil. LOL. Do you remember the amount of US oil we've exported since the " ban" was passed into law? Again according to the EIA: 1.5 BILLION BBLS. But that did take me 3 minutes to dig up. Mostly because I had to add each year since they didn't post a running cumulative. LOL.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Observerbrb', 'I')f this same pattern holds up in the coming months, OIl prices will surely recover (though I wouldn't hold my breath for it ).

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'T') - From the EIA: for the first 6 months of 2016 we averaged 480,000 bbls of crude exported per day. But the more significant number is how much refinery products we've exported during the same time period: 4.7 MILLION bbls per day...refinery products made from oil pulled from our storage systems. IOW about 10X as much exported crude oil.

Perhaps India or China. Or just keep selling to the Canadians: this year they've gotten 300,000 bopd of the 480,000 bopd we've exported. Doesn't cost as much to ship to them.

BTW that 480,000 bbls/day of oil we exported this year compares to the 458,000 bbls/day of oil we EXPORTED in 2015 before the POTUS lifted the so called US oil export "ban". LOL. Yeah, I'm so much better at digging out such FACTS then the MSM. Hell, it took me almost 60 seconds to pull up the numbers to prove there never was a ban on exporting US oil. LOL. Do you remember the amount of US oil we've exported since the " ban" was passed into law? Again according to the EIA: 1.5 BILLION BBLS. But that did take me 3 minutes to dig up. Mostly because I had to add each year since they didn't post a running cumulative. LOL.

[ROCKMAN]

Peaky - Here you go:

Exports - US Exports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products
https://www.eia.gov › dnav › pet › pet_...

I don't know what data you're dropping into Xcell but no need with these numbers. The first two lines of data show the daily average of the total US petroleum exported and US crude oil exported per month. Simply subtract the crude oil number from the total and you get the amount of refinery products exported. But you can just look at the two rows of data and tell we export a great deal more product then we do oil.

As far as the bullshit that there has been a ban on exporting US oil just click the "View History" at the end of the crude oil exports row and you'll be rewarded with a very simple chart PROVING that anyone saying there has been any ban is an IDIOT. LOL. And if curious where all those exports have gone on the chart display is the link to the destination data.

Again, I don't know what data you're looking at. But it's butt simple to find the official numbers: just search "EIA petroleum exports". This why I take shots at the MSM or anyone else that tosses out the oil export ban hype: as you see from the link it would take a 12 year old child less the 60 seconds to pull up the PROOF that such statements are complete bullsh*t. LOL

[ROCKMAN]

Peaky - That link won't cut and paste properly. But as I said just search "EIA petroleum exports" and select from the list.

But first try this:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_e ... blpd_m.htm

[ROCKMAN]

Peaky et al - Great! That link takes you right to the data that proves my point. So easy to understand...anyone interested in the TRUTH should check it out.

[Tanada]

If I did it right this is the chart the EIA makes from the data you two gentlemen are talking about.

The big spikes in the 1950's and 1960's is when there were disruptions overseas so more USA oil was exported to make up for the shortfall elsewhere. In the 1960's the USA started importing more and more oil from overseas ourselves, then as the TAPS started producing a lot that oil was 'exported' to Asia in exchange for lighter crude shipped to California.

[ROCKMAN]

T - Thanks for posting the chart. There are some interesting features that many won't get. The US was THE oil exporting country prior to the mid 40's because the US was essentially the ONLY significant oil producing country in the world. Second, the world's economy began a growth spurt post WWII. But notice how little oil we exported from the 40's into the early 70's. Why so if global demand was increasing? Easy answer: the Texas Rail Road Commision was a very effective OIL CARTEL. By state law it could restrict the amount of oil produced in Texas. Texas that was THE primary oil producing region on the planet. And why did the TRRC restrict oil production? Pull up any chart showing inflation adjusted oil prices and you'll see that the 40's thru early 70's was the most stable oil price period in the oil patch's entire history. For almost 30 years Texas politicians set the global price of oil

Another huge point: notice the boom in US oil exports starting in the early 80's. That represents the lost control over prices by the TRRC and increasing control by ME countries. Also one of the biggest ironies: US oil exports bookedT - Thanks for posting the chart. There are some interesting features that many won't get. The US was THE oil exporting country prior to the mid 40's because the US was essentially the ONLY significant oil producing country in the world. Second, the world's economy began a growth spurt post WWII. But notice how little oil we exported from the 40's into the early 70's. Why so if global demand was increasing? Easy answer: the Texas Rail Road Commision was a very effective OIL CARTEL. By state law it could restrict the amount of oil produced in Texas. Texas that was THE primary oil producing region on the planet. And why did the TRRC restrict oil production? Pull up any chart showing inflation adjusted oil prices and you'll see that the 40's thru early 70's was the most stable oil price period in the oil patch's entire history. For almost 30 years Texas politicians set the global price of oil

Another huge point: notice the boom in US oil exports starting in the early 80's. That represents the lost control over prices by the TRRC and increasing control by ME countries. Also one of the biggest ironies: US oil exports boomed right after the US oil export "ban" was made law in the late 70's.

That chart is much more interesting when one appreciates the various dynamics behind it, eh?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'A')lso its good to remember that we are reaching limits to growth in other resources as well