[StarvingLion]

Admit it already, the fusion reactor is your only hope otherwise you will end up in front of the judge.

The Peoples Court will be merciless as always.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o I don't follow the little price burps you two find so intriguing.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '$')100/bbl destroyed demand all over the world. 

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')oesn't Eurasia include the world's greatest oil producer and consumer? It seems your bias is showing Rock.

tell me stop!

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'o')esn't Eurasia include the world's greatest oil producer and consumer? It seems your bias is showing Rock.

[Observerbrb]

Why are you so adamant on the demand issue?

The ETP model says that the annual price average will not exceed the following values (US dollars) :

2016 - 65.94
2017 - 54.18
2018 - 41.16
2019 - 26.88

(BTW, Oil prices won't fall to 0, shortonoil has already explained this before, and he even put some arrows that start to deviate in his famous graph)

It doesn't say anything about the demand or the supply (in terms of volume) at any particular time. What I understand is that oil companies need to get more and more oil out of the ground each year if they want to stay in the market and don't get bankrupt in the process. The logical outcome is that they will try to balance the financial losses by producing more volume. Steve Ludlum warned about this outcome in 2012, long before the price plunge (I have seen people in this same forum talking about the Triangle of Doom before the oil slump happened).

The other logical outcome is that they will fail in doing so and will go bankrupt, so the production will finally fall and the economy will be severely disrupted (as I explained in my last post, that's my way of thinking). I am not obsessed about the date of Peak Oil, as I understand that the volumetric analysis is not as important as knowing how much energy we use in the process before oil final products reach the end consumer.

It's ironic that I end up explaining Hills model since the thing which made complete sense for me was from the beginning Mr. Ludlum's explanations.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou want to blame Euro taxes? That is complete nonsense. They were in place when Euro consumption was high and getting higher 1993-2008. Taxes didn't bite then. After the 2008 Great Oil Recession oil-consumption dropped to historic lows. Not taxes, high oil prices.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'S')o to summarize the $100/bbl oil had virtually no effect on global consumption (global demand increased continuously throughout the period and after) and the Europe picture has no clear relationship with the $100/bbl oil period either

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Observerbrb', 'W')hy are you so adamant on the demand issue?

The ETP model says that the annual price average will not exceed the following values
...
It doesn't say anything about the demand or the supply (in terms of volume) at any particular time.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ouldn't the chart go the other way, to make your point? Call me confused.

[SumYunGai]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Observerbrb', 'W')hy are you so adamant on the demand issue?

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BahamasEd', 'Y')es, and by the EIA we are still producing more then we are using so we can't start working off the glut until then balance.

So by their forecast it should balance sometime next year and I would think it would take another year to work down the glut so prices can start to rise again, maybe sometime in 2018.

But the EIA predicts the future about as well as I do.

So I stand by my statement, Oil is not cheap yet, it needs do drop back down into the $20s to clear the market. I think that if the price stays between $45 to $60 then production will continue to out pace consumption

https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/repo ... al_oil.cfm

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '
')The thing that made complete sense to me from the beginning was that civilization was headed for a rapid collapse.
For me, the Etp model just gives the most exact way to time it.

[StarvingLion]

The rise in oil demand is due to the "Renewables" garbage which is required to save the Ponzi Shale/Hydrates Gas Industry which is supposed to save the Oil Industry.

BW Hills and Gail Tverbergs both assume there is still some kind of functioning debt monetary system....bah are they blind or what?

The energy/financial system is a full blown PONZI now. Its not possible to analyze it without knowledge of the details.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Its not possible to analyze it without knowledge of the details.