by Outcast_Searcher » Wed 17 Aug 2016, 21:56:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')I think most consumers earn less than $10 a day and barely have access to one or more basic needs. Public services, infrastructure, etc., are also weak overall.
So you're talking third world, at least mostly?
Not the people driving around in big SUV's and buying 20+ gallons a week of gasoline then. Or most likely, not directly buying oil products at all (perhaps riding a bus now and then).
So how does this bear meaningfully on the overall affordability of oil at $45 a barrel vs. $90ish recently?
I don't think the people saying that if oil was affordable in recent years at around $90 a barrel, then it is certainly affordable now at half that are claiming that third world incomes are soaring.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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by Outcast_Searcher » Wed 17 Aug 2016, 22:09:20
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '&')quot;First Rock, why cherry pick 1998?" The Rockman didn't cherry pick anything. Read the post again: T picked 1998 for comparison and STATED that the difference between prices then and now would have little impact on the public.
Do you think $125 BILLION in HIGHER fuel cost has an insignificant effect on the economy especially given a large portion of those monies were transferred to foreign companies?
So do you claim that 1998 and $17 was typical for US oil prices for the past 70 years? Or do you admit the chart I posted the link to has the inflation adjusted price of oil about right at over $40 or over $53 on average, for multiple recent decades, depending on the timeframe? (I think 36 years or 70 years of average inflation adjusted prices is a lot more meaningful than the lowest unadjusted price blip you can find).
Do you acknowledge that the energy intensity of first world economies is declining year by year, and by a lot decade by decade? (For example, the US fleet is getting better mileage, especially among newer cars, due to stricter CAFE standards -- so a gallon of gasoline provides the driver of a small fuel efficient car (i.e. someone watching their wallet) more mileage on average.)
...
If not, then your argument may appeal to doomers, but ignores economic reality.
Last edited by
Outcast_Searcher on Wed 17 Aug 2016, 22:21:54, edited 1 time in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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by ralfy » Wed 17 Aug 2016, 22:26:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')I think most consumers earn less than $10 a day and barely have access to one or more basic needs. Public services, infrastructure, etc., are also weak overall.
So you're talking third world, at least mostly?
Not the people driving around in big SUV's and buying 20+ gallons a week of gasoline then. Or most likely, not directly buying oil products at all (perhaps riding a bus now and then).
So how does this bear meaningfully on the overall affordability of oil at $45 a barrel vs. $90ish recently?
I don't think the people saying that if oil was affordable in recent years at around $90 a barrel, then it is certainly affordable now at half that are claiming that third world incomes are soaring.
I don't think income levels worldwide have been soaring for most people. From what I gathered, the increase went up from a dollar to around three or four a day, but that took several decades. In order to support a growing global middle class, a lot of credit probably had to be created, and even more to pay for more expensive oil.
At the same time, producers had to take on significant levels of debt to produce that oil, i.e., around half-a-trillion dollars in debt repayments that have to be made during the next five years. That doesn't include more debts needed to increase oil production further, and one that has involved diminishing returns.
Thus, what are we seeing is expensive oil, and not only in terms of price but in terms of production, and lots of credit needed to produce and buy it. A growing global middle class requires the opposite, but lower oil prices can't be sustained given high production costs. Meanwhile, debt levels have gone up, and even more debts have to be made to find less new oil each time.
by Outcast_Searcher » Wed 17 Aug 2016, 22:33:56
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 't')here is a a very large, very dangerous world outside the United States. It has an impact on you, outcaste/ennui. That world of hurt has the stuff you/we need to survive. You both better start recognizing your connections and dealing with the consequences of peak oil. Or you will die.
I'm trembling all over pstarr. Does having a relatively tiny energy footprint compared to typical Americans count? Does having a miniscule energy footprint compared to Americans in my income cohort count? Does having a (globally and sector-wise) diversified investment portfolio, including significant amounts of energy resources, as a big hedge against rising prices count?
There are more ways to be prepared for the future than having a doomstead and preparing to shoot at zombies. There are far more reasoned arguments than pretending like everyone who doesn't believe in the always wrong fast crash doomer scenario will die any time now.
And last I checked, no one is claiming the US is the only country in the world. The global demand and consumption of oil is increasing year by year. The global GDP is increasing year by year.
Your arguments are becoming less coherent.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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by Outcast_Searcher » Wed 17 Aug 2016, 22:45:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')I think most consumers earn less than $10 a day and barely have access to one or more basic needs. Public services, infrastructure, etc., are also weak overall.
So you're talking third world, at least mostly?
Not the people driving around in big SUV's and buying 20+ gallons a week of gasoline then. Or most likely, not directly buying oil products at all (perhaps riding a bus now and then).
So how does this bear meaningfully on the overall affordability of oil at $45 a barrel vs. $90ish recently?
I don't think the people saying that if oil was affordable in recent years at around $90 a barrel, then it is certainly affordable now at half that are claiming that third world incomes are soaring.
I don't think income levels worldwide have been soaring for most people. From what I gathered, the increase went up from a dollar to around three or four a day, but that took several decades. In order to support a growing global middle class, a lot of credit probably had to be created, and even more to pay for more expensive oil.
At the same time, producers had to take on significant levels of debt to produce that oil, i.e., around half-a-trillion dollars in debt repayments that have to be made during the next five years. That doesn't include more debts needed to increase oil production further, and one that has involved diminishing returns.
Thus, what are we seeing is expensive oil, and not only in terms of price but in terms of production, and lots of credit needed to produce and buy it. A growing global middle class requires the opposite, but lower oil prices can't be sustained given high production costs. Meanwhile, debt levels have gone up, and even more debts have to be made to find less new oil each time.
Are we talking about the middle class, or people that earn $4 a day?
The global GDP rises year after year. The global demand and consumption of oil rises year after year, whether oil is $45 a barrel or almost $100 a barrel.
Again, people who earn $4 a day (or whatever the figure of the global poor is) aren't buying massive amounts of oil now, or did they ever.
The middle class is paying off their cars over time. And they are affording higher housing costs instead of moving into cheaper housing. And they aren't declaring bankruptcy en masse over $2 gasoline.
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So I think your only valid point is that there is lots of debt in the oil patch. Yup. And if oil prices stay low and lots of oil companies go bankrupt, then stronger hands will hold the oil and will produce it when prices rise enough to justify the risk of producing it. In the mean time, there is a global glut, and people are doing just fine motoring with $2 gas (plus the taxes at various places, same as it ever was).
And again, year after year, the global energy intensity per unit of GDP is declining in the first world, which means the middle class and wealthy get more energy for their money.
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As Jesus said, the poor are with us always. That doesn't equate to people being unable to afford oil products moreso than in recent decades. The evidence is that people are MORE able to afford oil products and are stupidly buying large gas guzzling vehicles, larger homes, etc.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
by ralfy » Tue 23 Aug 2016, 21:55:44
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')Are we talking about the middle class, or people that earn $4 a day?
Those who earn around $4 a day, which make up the majority of the world's population. If we see most earning at least $10 a day, then we can probably argue that income levels have "soared."
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
The global GDP rises year after year. The global demand and consumption of oil rises year after year, whether oil is $45 a barrel or almost $100 a barrel.
The difference is that it had weakened for Japan, the U.S., and EU but increased for developing countries. I posted the data in another thread.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
Again, people who earn $4 a day (or whatever the figure of the global poor is) aren't buying massive amounts of oil now, or did they ever.
Actually, it's the countries where they live that are buying more oil, in fact so much that they've offset drops in developed countries.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
The middle class is paying off their cars over time. And they are affording higher housing costs instead of moving into cheaper housing. And they aren't declaring bankruptcy en masse over $2 gasoline.
....
