[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'W')hat percentages are we looking at in terms of birth defects for ancient Greeks and Chinese in comparison to what might take place given the effects of the Zika virus?

[Ibon]

As I see the world through the lens of what potential diseases could have an impact on human overshoot the Zika virus doesn't provoke much of anything more than a yawn.

[onlooker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'A')s I see the world through the lens of what potential diseases could have an impact on human overshoot the Zika virus doesn't provoke much anything more than a yawn.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '
')I still see the most dangerous vector for a possible Pandemic as some strain of the Avian flu.

[dohboi]

Sub wrote: "I remember all too well the children of Thalidomide and how confident health officials can be even in the face of contrary information."

Good point.

Ib, there weren't commercial aircraft, but lots and lots of people were being transported between countries and continents as troops were returning home after the Great War. And many of them were in marginal (or worse) conditions, very susceptible to any new bug that might come along. I don't think we can say ahead of time what kind(s) of bug(s) are going to first take the greatest advantage of the huge, uniform food source that human flesh now represents on the planet. But it's not going to be pretty (at least not from the human perspective!).

T, I'm not sure your logic about virus mutations works. As far as we know, viruses can't look ahead and figure out what is going to be the best mutation for them to undergo in the long run. Causing microcephaly does not have any immediate negative effect on their ability to be transmitted. Viruses don't get together (as far as we know ) and strategize what their next mutation is going to be, so they couldn't decide, "Oh, we better not take that microcephaly-causing mutation route, or eventually we won't have any more sources of blood."

Some such argument about long-term consequences of virus mutations, though, might be a reason that the virus does not (or no longer?) has such an effect in places where it has been endemic for long periods, perhaps. But perhaps I'm missing something?

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')
In North America/Europe/Australia the average modern birth defect rate is 3 percent of all pregnancies that go full term. For the ancient cultures in question estimates range from 3 percent to as high as 9 percent, but in general records were not kept and people didn't want to admit what had happened because in many cases a loss of face or a measure of shame was put onto the mother and father of a deformed infant. Personally I suspect the rate was probably around double the modern rate, about 6 percent of full term infants.

For Zika virus estimates are wildly different depending on whom you ask, some sources cite a microcephaly rate of 1 percent while the real doomsayers project a microcephaly rate of 13 percent. The problem is two fold, first microcephaly has always been a part of the birth defect results so if two babies are born with microcephaly and statistically you only expected one is it just the random chance of bad luck, or is it from Zika virus? Even worse when the Brazilian physicians association tested babies and mothers of babies born with microcephaly only a small percentage of them had antibodies for Zika virus in their blood, and the same tests would have shown active virus as well.

So say the doomiest Zika doomers are correct and 13 percent of mothers who catch Zika virus during the key period of their pregnancy bare a child with microcephaly. Add that to the 3 percent of children already born with serious birth defects. In that worst case scenario 84 percent of infants would still be born perfectly healthy. On the other hand in countries where Zika is endemic in tropical Africa and Asia the microcephaly rate is not detectable at higher than background levels, at least not in any of the reports I have seen over the last six months that this story has been hyped by the media.

Remember the Zika hypothesis is that the pregnant mother has to catch the disease during a key three week period when the baby DNA is actively developing the brain structure. If all else failed one solution would be to isolate pregnant women for the month before and after that window of danger to prevent them from contracting Zika at that crucial development period.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'A')s I see the world through the lens of what potential diseases could have an impact on human overshoot the Zika virus doesn't provoke much of anything more than a yawn.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
We do not need to look toward exotic new diseases like Zika or Ebola as potential arsenal of the overshoot predator. Virulent strains of influenza are long overdue. In 1918, before the vector of commercial airliners moved hundreds of thousands crossing continents daily, a virulent strain of flu killed an estimated 3-5 % of the global population. A similar percentage today would kill 400 million.

I don't know what alarms me more, 400 million humans dying or the fact that 400 million represents only 5% of our human population on the planet

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', ' ')I don't think we can say ahead of time what kind(s) of bug(s) are going to first take the greatest advantage of the huge, uniform food source that human flesh now represents on the planet. But it's not going to be pretty (at least not from the human perspective!).

[dohboi]

Yup.

I always try to keep in mind that the likely origin of 'blessed' is 'bloodied.'

I'd prefer a more traditional top predator like being ripped apart by a lion or tiger. But if microbe is the only thing on hand, I guess it will have to do.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
The ultimate definition of 21st century Karma. Our species collectively becomes an exploited natural resource.

If this happens in our lifetime and we suddenly find ourselves overwhelmed with a global pandemic and if you suddenly feel the first symptoms erupting in your body then there is a way to exit with a deep sense that balance is being restored. Among all the suffocation and vomit and phlegm and congestion and pustules and boils and rashes and fevers you can find that still peace.

I am prepared. Are you?

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is a valid question. But again, it’s a false dichotomy. Our choices aren’t between beautiful birds and human life. It can be both. There are over 200 million cases and almost 1 million deaths every year from malaria. And if you think that Europe and the USA, are safe, both areas have had several thousand cases (some, obviously, brought from other areas) and a few deaths.

And remember, it’s not just malaria. Zika virus, which has become a major concern for epidemiologists, is spread by mosquitos.

If DDT can prevent much of that, and it can, then the benefits have to outweigh the risks. DDT is one of the more powerful tools in the arsenal against mosquitos. No, there isn’t some “natural” method to kills a large number of mosquitos at a low cost.

Again, massive application to farmland is not ever going to be considered – but careful use to control mosquitos? Sure.

[Timo]

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/07/zika-virus-infecting-50-pregnant-women-in-puerto-rico-every-day-cdc/

Not good at all. 50 pregnant women are estimated to become infected with Zika every single day in Puerto Rico. We'll surely see the consequences of this calamity in less than a year.

Good thing Congress is headed toward another Government shutdown to force criminal charges against Hillary. Otherwise, they could be funding a response to this emergency of growing and unimaginable proportions.

Democrats stage a sit-in on the House floor. Republicans go much bigger and shut down everything across the nation. Same end-game. Different tactics. Difference consequences, too.

[vox_mundi]

Florida concludes Zika is being spread there by mosquitoes, a first in the continental U.S.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]http://cbsnews1.cbsistatic.com/hub/i/r/2016/02/12/ddfe295f-a430-4084-9da6-5b4ba4f6d787/resize/620x/4c65d98d8e6e65f76dbe321a60bc06eb/zika-transmission-map-travel-risk-areas.jpg[/img]

Florida and federal officials on Friday announced the first local spread of the Zika virus through infected mosquitoes in the continental United States.

Gov. Rick Scott made the announcement following a health department investigation into four suspected cases in Miami-Dade and Broward counties. Scott said transmission was confined to a small neighborhood just north of Miami and involved one woman and three men.

“We learned today that four people in our state likely have the Zika virus as a result of a mosquito bite," he said during a press conference. "All four of these people live in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, and the Florida Department of Health believes that active transmissions of this virus could be occurring in one small area in Miami."

Lyle Petersen, who is managing the agency's Zika response, said CDC expects "there may be additional cases of ‘homegrown’ Zika in the coming weeks."

[Tanada]

I did not want to experiment with Zika to prove it is not the major cause of microcephaley, but it looks like we will know pretty soon. Fortunately outside of Brazil it seems to be a fairly mild illness, if there are two strains I fervently hope this is the mild frm that does not cause birth defects.

[vox_mundi]

1st baby with Zika-related defect born in NYC, officials say

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he first baby born in the state with a severe Zika-related birth defect was reported by New York City health officials on Friday.

Doctors diagnosed microcephaly, a condition marked by brain impairment and smaller-than-normal head size.

A majority of the Zika-related microcephaly cases have been diagnosed in South America, mostly Brazil. Outside of the microcephaly birth reported Friday, 12 other infants have been born in the United States with Zika-related birth defects, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

[dolanbaker]

I suspect that many other countries are beginning to issue similar warnings.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0730/805926-zika-florida/
Irish women who are pregnant or trying to become pregnant have been advised not to travel to Florida in the wake of reports of locally transmitted incidents of the Zika virus.

The Department of Foreign Affairs updated its travel advice after the first cases of Zika transmitted by mosquitoes on the US mainland appeared in the state.

Previous warnings against travel to South and Central America due to the virus also remain in place.

[vox_mundi]

CDC issues a travel advisory to Florida, which has 10 new cases of Zika

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]For the first time, the Zika virus has prompted public health officials to warn pregnant women to avoid traveling to a part of the continental United States. The travel advisory comes in response to a growing outbreak of the mosquito-borne disease in South Florida.

The state on Monday said there are 10 more people who have been infected with the Zika virus who likely contracted it from local mosquitoes, bringing the total number of such cases in the state to 14. All of the cases have surfaced in a densely populated community north of downtown Miami.

Because the virus can have devastating consequences for a fetus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged pregnant women to avoid traveling to the area, and for pregnant women who live and work there to make every effort to avoid mosquito bites and to get tested for possible exposure during each prenatal visit. It also advised women to use protection during sex, because the virus can be transmitted sexually. Furthermore, the CDC is advising that all pregnant women should be asked about travel to Zika-infested areas during routine prenatal visits. Any pregnant women who have traveled to Zika areas -- including this area of Florida on or after June 15 -- are advised to talk with their healthcare providers and get tested for Zika.

CDC Director Tom Frieden said the agency issued the travel warning because of the additional Zika infections that were identified in the last 48 hours, and because of new information that indicates mosquito control efforts are not working as well as officials would have liked.

Frieden said it's possible the insects have developed resistance to some of the insecticides being used, or that the mosquitoes are able to continue laying eggs in "cryptic breeding places," or that it may simply be that it's very difficult to do mosquito control in this particular area.

[KaiserJeep]

Zika is likely to become endemic in both Puerto Rico and Southern Florida unless we switch to more effective mosquito eradication.

In this case that means both more effective insecticides and the elimination of stagnant water.

Once upon a time, DDT wiped out enough mosquitoes to effectively end malaria in North America. Now we have a spectrum of effective insecticides, almost all of them petrochemicals. We also have long lists of where such chemicals are banned for good reasons.

Unfortunately, several species of tropical ornamental Bromeliads have been introduced by mankind to both areas. These plants retain water enough to breed mosquitoes in the base of the central stem. Effective mosquito control may include eradicating these Bromeliads to remove such standing water. But a simple upturned bottle cap covered by a dead leaf is enough standing water to breed hundreds of mosquitoes.

We could bring back DDT temporarily. This will in the nature of such chemicals decimate Southern Hemisphere penguin populations - and North American Bald Eagles - without much direct impact on humans.

If we lack the courage to kill the mosquitoes, the increasing human birth defects push us towards the inevitable threshold beyond which we have to kill pinheaded human dwarfs instead. In the usual nature of such things, the inability to make a decision to effectively deal with such a difficult issue results in the worst possible alternative by default.

[ralfy]

"Zika can infect adult brain cells, not just fetal cells, study suggests"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to- ... tal-cells/