[StarvingLion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '
')My gripe with the supposed Peak Oil believers is that their analysis of the situation is so superficial that it is entirely worthless.

[StarvingLion]

The phoney "Renewables" and Uranium "Industries" require a tax on using the atmosphere to exist. In other words, they are totally parasitic. The hosts (wood, coal, oil) are dead. What are they going to feed on?

Adam, why isn't there a Saudi Arabia of Solar Electricity Generation somewhere in the world? I

Why does Solar always have to get cheaper if its a cash machine?

Why does Shale now have to get always cheaper if its a cash machine?

Answer: They don't generate cash...they BURN cash.

Adam, where is the income going to come from to keep these bloated welfare states alive?

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SugarSeam', 'W')hat I am struggling with is how free market cultists think. How they can attempt to say something like that quoted passage as if it is at all grounded in reality. "Yes, we have efficiency gains. Yes we do use more each year. But that doesn't mean we don't HAVE to use more to maintain BAU." ... What? Considering "lower" has never actually been the case for global consumption of hydrocarbon liquids, isn't this an unfalsifiable claim to insist it's possible?

[kublikhan]

The point is pstarr that all of the problems you highlight did not stop BAU and global economic growth continued apace, despite lower oil consumption levels.

As for your other point that we have reached the pinnacle of fuel economy, that is not true. There is still plenty of room to squeeze out of fuel economy:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s stricter fuel standards force cars to guzzle far less fuel over the next few decades, gasoline consumption is expected to decline substantially by 2040. “One of the primary drivers of the decrease in motor gasoline consumption is more stringent fuel economy standards that … will require new light-duty vehicles to average about 49 miles per gallon in vehicle model year 2025.”

[radon1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')But all those advances have already passed through the system. There are no more to be had.

[radon1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SugarSeam', '
')but really, in the mind of the cornie, what is this attempting to mean?:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'u')nderstand the simple fact that we can get more efficient in how we use oil AND we can use more at the same time. But those both don't have to happen together.

[SeaGypsy]

An often overlooked aspect of Jevons is the increment of efficiency & capacity of market to absorb gains. Only a massive & radical multiplier will break the law at outset, say something as abundant as dirt, powerful as nuclear, portable as gasoline, safe as water, yeah Jevons is broken. At the other end, system shock crashes markets as marginal efficiencies come too little too late & capacity to absorb gains vanishes. Jevons is a good shocker for newbies, but it does only give an indication rather than a cure.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') don't thinks so Kub. The recent incremental post-peak run up in efficiency has itself peaked.

[ralfy]

This is a recap of what was pointed out in an earlier thread:

One article points out that the countries that are developed are now moving towards post-industrialization. That means they are now moving to service industries, financing, etc. The argument is that there will be BAU because all countries can do the same.

The problem is that most countries are developing. That means they have not reached full industrialization, let alone post-industrialization. For that to happen, several earths will be needed.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', ' ')He said SUPPOSED Peak Oil believers. 'SUPPOSED' as in 'FAKE', i.e. 'pretending to be peak oil believers'.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SugarSeam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SugarSeam', '
')I understand this. I guess what you're saying is that the kind of person I'm debating with on that site is delusional, and addicted to hopium.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '
')Oil doubles as an ATM cash machine, not only a means of transportation.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '
')Adam, where is the income going to come from to keep these bloated welfare states alive?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'y')es kub, that is true. But those gains in efficiency must be seen in light of the geopolitics, culture and technologic (both in automobile and oilfield productivity) advances of the time. 1979 was the last of the great oil shocks (after US peak in 1971, the Arab oil embargo in 1973) It was not until 2005 (and the global peak) that we saw anything as nasty and prolonged.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')damB, I haven't heard from you in a while.

Feeling shy?

[efarmer]

The Ford Model T did about 21 MPG and was a very Spartan vehicle but
started the American mass adoption of ICE vehicles.
By 1935 creature comforts and associated mass and resultant
engine enlargement dropped the MPG to around 14, in 1973
when the Arab embargo hit, MPG was around 12 average.
In 2009 the average was about 25MPG. We can dicker on the
exact numbers depending on source information but let's not
and just look at the trend.

A very basic engine on a Model T did 21 MPG. Modern cars with
reams of features and creature comforts, and engines and drive
trains controlled by several powerful synchronized computers and
fitted with dozens of electronic sensors to optimize every parameter
possible, and with 6 speed computer controlled transmissions are
in the 40 MPG range for small vehicles such as a Ford Focus. This means
that the process of computerizing and sensor festooning that has been
implemented and perfected, constantly and globally since the 1980's
(36 years) has about wrung all the efficiency practical out of the ICE.
The magic of digital control and extensive sensoring and optimizing
has taken place for the most part at this point in time in my personal
opinion. A majority of people having personal vehicles has always been
grossly inefficient if a joyous part of a lifestyle for many of us.
The ICE is thoroughly perfected, our strategy as a society that
got to where we are on a huge and illogical but lucrative energy
exploit is obviously not perfected. We do wish that a breakthrough
motor rather than a collective solution would insure Easy Motoring
BAU.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', 'T')he Ford Model T did about 21 MPG and was a very Spartan vehicle but
started the American mass adoption of ICE vehicles.
By 1935 creature comforts and associated mass and resultant
engine enlargement dropped the MPG to around 14, in 1973
when the Arab embargo hit, MPG was around 12 average.
In 2009 the average was about 25MPG. We can dicker on the
exact numbers depending on source information but let's not
and just look at the trend.

A very basic engine on a Model T did 21 MPG. Modern cars with
reams of features and creature comforts, and engines and drive
trains controlled by several powerful synchronized computers and
fitted with dozens of electronic sensors to optimize every parameter
possible, and with 6 speed computer controlled transmissions are
in the 40 MPG range for small vehicles such as a Ford Focus. This means
that the process of computerizing and sensor festooning that has been
implemented and perfected, constantly and globally since the 1980's
(36 years) has about wrung all the efficiency practical out of the ICE.
The magic of digital control and extensive sensoring and optimizing
has taken place for the most part at this point in time in my personal
opinion. A majority of people having personal vehicles has always been
grossly inefficient if a joyous part of a lifestyle for many of us.
The ICE is thoroughly perfected, our strategy as a society that
got to where we are on a huge and illogical but lucrative energy
exploit is obviously not perfected. We do wish that a breakthrough
motor rather than a collective solution would insure Easy Motoring
BAU.